A New Recycling Fee in Russia: What It Means for Car Buyers and Price Forecasts Until 2030
As of December 1, 2025, an updated procedure for calculating the recycling fee on imported passenger cars has come into effect. Under the new rules, a base fee of 20,000 rubles is now accompanied by coefficients that depend not only on the engine displacement but also on its power output. This means that vehicles with more than 160 horsepower will now be subjected to commercial rates, and the fee could rise to hundreds of thousands or even millions of rubles, compared to the previous several thousands.
Importantly, the preferential recycling fee for cars with engines up to 160 horsepower has been retained—official estimates indicate that this category includes about 80% of the vehicle fleet. Such vehicles are still subject to the former low rates (3,400 rubles for new models and 5,200 rubles for those older than three years). However, the combination of the new recycling fee and existing customs duties has led to a dramatic increase in the cost of importing vehicles.
Who Will Experience Price Increases on Imported Cars?
The new rules will particularly impact popular mid-range and premium vehicles in Russia that have engines over 160 horsepower. For instance:
- Toyota Camry 3.5: additional recycling fee of approximately 2.9 million rubles (almost equal to the cost of the car itself).
- Kia K5: additional ~795,000 rubles.
- BMW M5: additional ~4.0 million rubles.
- Lixiang L9: the recycling fee increased from 3,400 rubles to nearly 2.0 million rubles.
These examples illustrate the magnitude of the price increase: the total cost of purchasing an imported vehicle will be significantly higher than before.
Surge in Demand Before the Increase
Anticipation of sharp price increases has triggered a rush in the market even before the changes officially took effect. In October 2025, about 12% of all passenger car sales were attributed to "grey" imports (nearly 19,700 vehicles) as buyers rushed to import cars under the old regulations. Customs offices in the Far East operated around the clock to process as many cars as possible before December 1.
Concurrently, sales of new passenger cars reached a record 171,200 units in October—the highest in the last 3.5 years. Without previous discounts and promotions, the average purchase price rose by approximately 20% over three months. This reflects high short-term demand and the willingness of consumers to make purchases before the sharp regulatory changes.
Government Objectives: Protecting the Automotive Industry and Budget Revenues
The new recycling fee is officially positioned as a tool to support domestic automotive production. According to First Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov, the new scheme aims to make local car production in Russia more economically viable than imports. Minister of Industry and Trade Anton Alikhanov noted that vehicles with up to 160 horsepower account for about 80% of the fleet, and therefore the majority of private buyers "will not be affected" by the new regulations. President Putin has also stated the need for a recycling fee to support local manufacturers.
However, a decrease in the import of foreign vehicles could result in significant budget shortfalls. Experts estimate that annual revenue losses could reach up to 300 billion rubles (for comparison, the recycling fee brought in approximately 1.1 trillion rubles to the federal budget in 2024, of which over 600 billion was from imports).
Consequences for Buyers and the Market
The increase in the recycling fee will immediately raise the "barrier to entry" in the used imported car market, making many models unaffordable for private individuals. Ordinary consumers will face significant increases in car costs, as the recycling fee will represent a considerable portion of the total price. This will lead to a decline in demand for imported cars with medium and high power outputs and push car owners towards cheaper vehicles with engines under 160 horsepower or towards domestic alternatives.
Overall, this indicates a massive restructuring of the market: foreign brands will lose some market share, while domestic manufacturers may receive an additional boost. According to estimates from the Ministry of Industry and Trade, sales of passenger cars in 2025 could decrease by 13-16% (down to 1.3-1.35 million units), reflecting consumer reactions to rising prices and changing tax burdens.
Future Trends: Recycling Fees Through 2030
Increases in the recycling fee are set to continue. Starting January 1, 2026, rates will increase by another 25%, with an annual indexation of 10-20% expected through 2030. Experts predict that if this trend continues, the recycling fee for the most powerful imported cars could exceed 10 million rubles by the end of the decade, making their import economically unviable.
- As of January 1, 2026, the recycling fee rates will increase by 25%.
- Annual indexation of 10-20% is anticipated from 2027 to 2030.
- By 2030, the recycling fee for cars exceeding 493 horsepower will surpass 10 million rubles.
Conclusion
The new calculation rules for the recycling fee have radically changed the conditions for importing vehicles into Russia. The price of an imported car now depends not only on its displacement but also on its horsepower, resulting in a rapid rise in prices for many models. In the short term, this will limit access to expensive foreign cars and strengthen demand for more affordable alternatives; in the long term, it will solidify the advantage for domestic manufacturers and reduce the presence of powerful foreign vehicles in the market.
For investors, these changes signify a reconfiguration of the automotive market in Russia and the CIS. Foreign brands will lose market share, while investments in local assembly may become more attractive. At the same time, the overall volume of car sales may decline: owning a powerful imported car will become a once-in-a-lifetime luxury due to the increased tax burden and import restrictions.
