Global Lithium Prices Surge Amid Rising Battery Demand. Russia Prepares to Launch Its Own Lithium Production by 2026, Targeting 28,000 Tons Per Year by 2030. Analytical Review for Investors.
Global lithium prices are experiencing a new wave of growth, driven by expectations of a rapid increase in demand. In early December, lithium carbonate futures on the Guangzhou Exchange soared to $13,300 per ton — the highest price in the past year and a half. On the London Metal Exchange, lithium hydroxide contracts exceeded $10,000 per ton, gaining around 6% in just a month. Experts attribute this resurgence to the prospect of explosive growth in the battery and electric vehicle markets in the coming years.
Analysts predict that global lithium demand could reach 700,000 to 900,000 tons (in terms of pure metal) by 2026, which is significantly higher than levels observed in the mid-2020s. For comparison, the International Energy Agency estimated global lithium consumption at approximately 220,000 tons in 2024. The range of forecasts is broad, but all agree — consumption of "white gold" will rise at an accelerated pace. By 2030, annual demand could surpass 1 to 2 million tons, reflecting the boom in electric vehicle production and energy storage systems.
Batteries and Electric Vehicles — The Main Demand Drivers
The rapid growth in lithium utilization is primarily due to advancements in battery technologies. Approximately 80% of all lithium produced today is used in the manufacture of lithium-ion batteries, mainly for electric vehicles. As the global automobile industry transitions to electric power, the demand for batteries will grow exponentially. Experts forecast that the market for "green" batteries will increase by hundreds of percent in the next 3 to 4 years. By 2028-2030, annual electric vehicle production worldwide could reach 20-25 million units, further driving lithium consumption to unprecedented levels. The primary consumption is concentrated in Asia, where about 90% of lithium raw materials are processed into batteries in China, South Korea, and Japan. These regions, along with North America, are leading the expansion of electric transport fleets and energy storage capacities.
Who Extracts Lithium: Global Leaders
The global lithium extraction market is currently dominated by a few countries. The largest producer is Australia, accounting for up to 40% of the world's primary lithium. The top three include Chile and China. Furthermore, China is rapidly increasing its presence in the industry: the country is investing in new deposits both domestically and abroad and controls around 60% of lithium raw material processing capacities. By the first half of 2025, China's share of global production was expected to reach 28%, and analysts estimate that by 2026, China could surpass Australia and become the world's largest lithium supplier, maintaining its leadership at least until the mid-2030s. Other players, such as Zimbabwe and Argentina, are also expanding production with new projects. In this race for "white gold," Russia's role is currently minimal; however, domestic extraction could eventually position the country among key lithium producers.
Russia: Dependence on Lithium Imports
Despite the global excitement surrounding lithium, domestic extraction in Russia remains virtually non-existent. Small volumes (around a few dozen tons per year) are extracted only as a by-product at the Malyshевskoe beryllium deposit in the Sverdlovsk region. The majority of lithium required for the economy is imported. Experts estimate that Russia's current lithium needs are around 1,000 to 1,500 tons per year (in terms of pure metal)—and these are entirely met through imports from Latin American countries and China. Less than half of this volume is utilized in domestic battery production; the remainder is consumed in the manufacturing of specialty lubricants, refractory ceramics, glass, and other materials.
Such dependence on imported strategic raw materials jeopardizes plans to develop high-tech industries. While leading economies worldwide are actively securing control over lithium resources globally, Russia is just beginning to catch up in harnessing its own reserves of "the new oil of the 21st century." The country possesses significant lithium resources—according to the Ministry of Natural Resources of the Russian Federation, the discovered ore reserves amount to approximately 3.5 million tons of lithium oxide (equivalent to ~1.6 million tons of pure metal). This potential still needs to be converted into actual production.
Government Strategy: Launching Domestic Lithium Extraction
In 2025, Russian authorities clearly outlined their course to eliminate the backlog in the lithium sector. In February, at the "Technologies of the Future" forum, President Vladimir Putin publicly lamented that lithium extraction in the country has not yet been established—although all possibilities existed, and production could have started 10-15 years ago. On November 1, he tasked the government with approving a "roadmap" for the long-term development of the extraction and production of rare and rare-earth metals (including lithium) within a month. Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin was appointed as the responsible party, underscoring the priority of this topic.
Specific goals have also been set. According to the Ministry of Natural Resources' plans, by 2030, Russia should produce at least 60,000 tons of lithium carbonate annually—equivalent to about 28,000 tons of pure lithium per year. Achieving such volumes would fully meet the country's domestic metal needs and even create an export reserve. The Ministry of Industry and Trade estimates that achieving full "import independence" in lithium will take around six years—thus, by 2030, the aim is to achieve self-sufficiency in the Russian market with domestic lithium raw materials.
Key Lithium Extraction Projects in Russia
To meet these goals, several investment projects are already underway or planned for promising deposits:
- Kolmozerskoye (Murmansk region) — the largest lithium deposit in the country (about 19% of Russia's total reserves). It is being developed by a joint venture "Polar Lithium" (Nornickel and the mining division of the state corporation Rosatom). Ore extraction is scheduled to begin in 2028, with projected capacity expected by 2030-2031 to produce up to 45,000 tons of lithium carbonate and hydroxide annually.
- Polmostundrovskoye (Murmansk region) — one of the largest lithium deposits on the Kola Peninsula. The license for development was obtained by JSC "Khalmek" and PJSC "Krasnoyarsk Chemical and Metallurgical Plant" (project "Arctic Lithium"). Pilot ore extraction started in 2023, and by 2026, production equivalent to 20,000 tons of lithium carbonate annually is planned.
- Tashtygskoye (Tuva Republic) — a large lithium deposit (about 600,000 tons of lithium oxide). It is being developed by Elbrusmetal-Lithium (part of the state corporation Rostec). The license was obtained in 2023, and road and beneficiation plant construction is underway. The plant is expected to begin producing lithium ore concentrate (with accompanying niobium, tantalum, and tin) by 2027-2028, which will then be processed into lithium carbonate using Russian facilities, aiming to cover up to half of the domestic demand by 2030.
- Kovykta (Irkutsk region) — an innovative project for extracting lithium from underground brines at the Kovykta gas condensate field. It is being implemented with participation from Gazprom and the Irkutsk Oil Company. In 2022-2023, the technology for sorption extraction of lithium was developed, with preparations for a pilot industrial installation ongoing. With successful technology deployment, lithium carbonate production from Kovykta's lithium-rich brines is expected to commence by the end of the decade.
Prospects: Russia on the Global Lithium Map
The realization of planned projects could fundamentally change Russia's position within the global lithium industry. By achieving an annual output of ~28,000 tons by 2030, the country would enter the ranks of significant lithium producers (for comparison, by 2024, this would exceed the annual output levels in Zimbabwe or Argentina). Such a leap would not only eliminate the domestic market's dependence on imports but also strengthen the raw material base for developing its own high-tech industries. The country is already building capacities for lithium-ion battery production — for example, the Rosatom plant for producing battery cells in the Kaliningrad region is slated to commence operations in 2025. Having its own raw materials and a full cycle from "ore to battery" will enable Russia to reduce costs and risks in the increasingly critical value chain for electric mobility and energy.
For investors, the formation of the lithium industry in Russia opens up new opportunities. Large players—the likes of Nornickel, Rosatom, Gazprom—are involved in mining projects, indicating the seriousness of intentions and high-level support. State participation and the strategic nature of these programs lower risks for investors interested in this new segment. Undoubtedly, much will depend on the successful launch of production and the condition of the global market, which remains volatile. Nevertheless, amid the global race for resources for the "green" economy, Russia's determination to establish a prominent position on the global lithium map appears to be a step towards diversifying its raw material base and strengthening the technological sovereignty of the nation.
