Current News in the Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector as of December 13, 2025: Oil and Gas Dynamics, Global Energy, Sanctions, Exports, Renewable Energy, Coal, and Key Trends in the Global Fuel and Energy Complex. Analytical Review for Investors and Industry Participants.
Global Oil Market: Supply Surplus and Cautious Demand Limit Price Growth
Global oil prices have stabilized at relatively low levels by the end of the year: Brent trades around $60 per barrel, while WTI hovers around $58. Recent signals regarding a potential easing of the U.S. Fed's monetary policy provided a slight boost to quotes; however, overall, oil has dropped by about 15% since the beginning of 2025, amid threats of oversupply against moderate demand growth. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) maintain a cautious strategy for managing production levels. In its December meeting, the alliance extended existing quotas at least through the end of Q1 2026. OPEC+ continues to hold significant production capacity in reserve (approximately 3 million barrels per day) to prevent price crashes. With Brent at ~ $60, cartel representatives emphasize prioritizing market stabilization over immediate export increases, considering the likelihood of weakened demand in the future.
Several key factors influence oil price dynamics:
- Demand. Global oil consumption is increasing significantly slower than in previous years. Demand growth in 2025 is estimated at less than 1 million barrels per day (compared to ~+2.5 million in 2023). Economic downturn and energy-saving measures following a period of high prices, as well as slowing industrial growth in China, are limiting consumption growth.
- Supply. OPEC+ countries increased production in the first half of 2025 as previous restrictions eased; however, concerns over market saturation are now restraining plans for further production increases. The decision to maintain production cuts at the beginning of 2026 indicates the coalition's readiness to prevent oversupply: agreement participants can swiftly adjust exports if prices decline.
- Geopolitics. The war in Ukraine and sanctions against major oil-producing countries (Russia, Iran, Venezuela) continue to restrict supply and support prices. However, no new significant upheavals have occurred; on the contrary, dialogue signals (e.g., the U.S. and Turkey's proposals for negotiations) are emerging, slightly reducing the "risk premium." As a result, the oil market remains within a relatively narrow price corridor without sharp fluctuations.
Global Gas and LNG Market: Stability in Europe, Increased Supply
The gas market situation at the end of 2025 is comparatively calm—a sharp contrast to the frenzy of two years ago. The European Union enters winter without signs of gas shortages: underground storage facilities are over 70% full, significantly higher than the average level for December. Gas prices in Europe (TTF hub) remain around €30 per MWh, which is well below the peaks of 2022. The volumes of Russian pipeline gas that are missing are almost fully compensated by record LNG imports from alternative sources—terminals are actively receiving fuel from the U.S., Qatar, Norway, and other countries.
Global LNG supply continues to grow due to the commissioning of new capacities. In the U.S., large export terminals (e.g., Golden Pass in the Gulf of Mexico) are coming online, strengthening America's position as a leading supplier. Qatar plans to increase its LNG production to 126 million tons per year by 2027 as part of the North Field expansion, having contracted significant volumes for buyers in Europe and Asia. New projects are also starting operations in other regions (Australia, Africa), intensifying competition in the liquefied gas market.
At the same time, demand for gas is growing at moderate rates. In Asia, some importers are even redirecting excess purchased batches to the spot market due to temporary slackening in domestic consumption. In total, expanding supply and restrained demand keep global gas prices at a relatively low level. However, weather remains a critical factor: in the event of abnormal cold spells or supply disruptions over the winter, price surges may occur. The base scenario suggests maintaining price stability due to comfortable fuel inventories.
Geopolitics and Sanctions: The West's Hardline and Compromise Searches
The confrontation between Russia and the West over energy resources continues, although by the end of the year, attempts at dialogue have emerged. G7 and EU countries maintain a strict sanctions line: an embargo on Russian oil is in effect, exports of petroleum products are restricted, a price cap has been introduced, and financial sanctions complicate trade in energy resources from Russia. Moreover, new restrictions are being discussed for early 2026—alliances intend to close remaining loopholes and are prepared to escalate pressure if the armed conflict continues.
Simultaneously, the European Union is taking steps toward complete independence from Russian fuel. On December 10, EU ambassadors approved a legislative plan to completely abandon energy carriers from Russia by the end of 2027—cessation of natural gas (including LNG), oil, and petroleum products purchases. In Brussels, this move is called the beginning of a new era aimed at completely freeing European energy from dependence on Russian fuel. The break with Russia is being consolidated at the legislative level and is stimulating the development of alternatives—from increasing LNG imports to accelerating the adoption of renewable energy. Moscow criticized the EU's strategy, noting that replacing cheap Russian gas with more expensive imports will lead to increased costs for Europe. Nevertheless, Brussels demonstrates determination to pay this price for a geopolitical goal; several countries (e.g., Hungary) have already promised to challenge the ban on Russian gas legally, but the pan-European course remains unwavering.
According to media reports, the U.S. has proposed to allies a plan for the gradual reintegration of Russia into the global economy after a peaceful resolution—which includes lifting sanctions and resuming exports of Russian energy resources to Europe. Meanwhile, EU leadership views such initiatives cautiously and rules out easing its position without real progress on the Ukrainian front. Against this backdrop, diplomatic signals for compromise are intensifying. U.S. President Donald Trump stated on December 12 that he is "close to a deal" with Moscow and Kyiv to resolve the conflict—marking the first hint of a possible peace agreement that could eventually relieve part of the energy sanctions. Turkey also offers to mediate: President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan confirmed at a meeting in Ashgabat his readiness to host negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in any format. Although concrete agreements are not yet in place, such statements feed hope for a future easing of the sanction pressure affecting the industry.
Russia Shifts Focus to Asian Markets
Faced with the loss of Western markets, Russia is increasing energy resource exports to Asia. China has become a key buyer: as early as the end of August, the first batch of liquefied gas from the new Arctic LNG-2 plant was dispatched to the PRC. In autumn, shipments of Russian LNG to China increased significantly—Beijing is actively ramping up purchases of fuel at a 30-40% discount, ignoring the West's sanction pressure. The energy partnership between Moscow and Beijing is strengthening, providing an alternative outlet for Russia and affordable raw materials for China's economy.
India also remains one of the largest importers of Russian hydrocarbons. Following the introduction of the European oil embargo, Indian refineries significantly increased purchases of Russian Urals oil and other grades at discounted prices. Russian leadership assured partners of its readiness to provide India with stable volumes of oil and petroleum products. Cheap raw materials from Russia help meet India's rapidly growing demand and keep domestic fuel prices in check, although New Delhi seeks to avoid critical dependence on a single supplier.
To solidify its "Eastern pivot," Russia is developing its export infrastructure. Discussions are underway for a new gas pipeline project, "Power of Siberia-2," through Mongolia to China, which could significantly increase gas supplies to Asia. Concurrently, a dedicated tanker fleet is being created to deliver oil to Indian, Chinese, and Southeast Asian markets, reducing dependence on Western shipping companies and insurers. These steps aim to make the reorientation of energy flows to the East irreversible and decrease Russia's dependency on the European market. Concurrently, Russia is strengthening ties with Middle Eastern partners. At a meeting in Ashgabat, Russian President Vladimir Putin discussed cooperation in gas and electricity with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshki. Meanwhile, work is underway on strategic projects, such as the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant in Iran and the development of the international North-South transport corridor. Such cooperation enhances Russia's integration into Eastern and Southern energy chains, partly compensating for the severed ties with Europe.
Kazakhstan: Transit Risks and New Routes
The military conflict in Ukraine also impacts energy resource export routes. In early December, a drone attack damaged the maritime terminal of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) near Novorossiysk, through which Kazakhstan exports oil. Although Kazakh oil shipments have not completely stopped, Astana has decided to expedite the diversification of its routes. The Kazakh government announced the redirection of some oil from the giant Kashagan field to China and is considering increasing supplies through Caspian ports to reduce dependence on the traditional route through Russia.
To strengthen energy security, Kazakhstan also plans to build a new oil refinery (NPP) with foreign capital participation. Expanding internal capacities for petroleum products will reduce the country’s fuel imports and enhance the stability of its oil and gas sector against external shocks.
Renewable Energy and Climate: Progress and Temporary Setbacks
The global energy transition continues to accelerate, even as international climate agreements stall. At the UN COP30 conference (November 2025, Belém, Brazil), a stringent plan for phasing out fossil fuels could not be adopted—a number of major oil and gas exporters blocked the EU's initiative for concrete deadlines for gradually halting production. The final agreement is a compromise, shifting focus to financing adaptation to climate change and overarching emission reduction goals without clear deadlines for phasing out oil, gas, and coal.
Despite the absence of new commitments, leading economies are practically increasing investments in "green" energy. The year 2025 has seen a record influx of new solar and wind power plants in various countries. China, India, the U.S., the European Union, and others are actively investing in renewable energy sources, storage systems, and hydrogen technologies, aiming to reduce dependence on hydrocarbons.
In the short term, some temporary setbacks have been observed in the decarbonization course. High prices for natural gas in 2025 compelled several states to increase coal usage for electricity generation to successfully navigate the winter season—global demand for coal remains high. Experts consider this a temporary measure. As the share of RES grows and energy storage technologies improve, the consumption of coal and other fossil resources will resume its decline. Thus, the long-term trend towards transitioning to clean energy remains, albeit with certain delays along the way.
Forecasts: Early 2026
Analysts expect that in the first quarter of 2026, oil prices will be under moderate downward pressure due to high stocks and supply outpacing demand growth. In the absence of new shocks, the average Brent price may drop to the range of $55-60 per barrel. At the same time, geopolitical factors could sharply alter the price landscape: escalation of the conflict in Ukraine, new sanctions, as well as crises in key oil-producing regions (MidEast, Latin America) could cause significant price fluctuations.
For the gas market, weather will remain a defining factor. If winter in the Northern Hemisphere is mild and fuel inventories are adequate, European gas prices will remain low. However, several weeks of anomalous cold could quickly deplete underground gas reserves and trigger price spikes. Additionally, competition between Europe and Asia for LNG may intensify if economic growth in Asian countries exceeds expectations.
In 2026, participants in the fuel and energy sector will need to adapt to new conditions. Supply diversification, energy efficiency improvements, and the integration of innovations (including the development of RES and carbon capture technologies) will be crucial for business sustainability. The outgoing year of 2025 clearly demonstrated the close interconnection of economics, politics, and ecology in shaping prices for oil, gas, and electricity. In 2026, this interconnection is likely to strengthen: the global market will balance between supply surplus and the risks of deficit, while the global community and regulators will strive to reconcile energy security objectives with climate goals.
