Analytical Overview of Economic Events and Corporate Reports for Monday, December 1, 2025. Key Macroeconomic Data, Company Earnings from the US, Europe, Asia, and Russia.
Monday will bring another round of key macroeconomic data and corporate earnings reports. Investor focus will be on the US manufacturing activity indicators (PMI, ISM), a speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, and the conclusion of the online sales frenzy from "Black Friday" (Cyber Monday). The markets are also evaluating the outcomes of the OPEC+ meeting, where oil-exporting countries are expected to maintain production levels. The day promises to be eventful, and it is crucial for investors to monitor market reactions across US, Asian, and Russian markets.
Global Macroeconomics
Global stock markets closed the previous week in positive territory: the S&P 500 rose by about +1% by the end of Friday, while the NASDAQ gained +0.9%. This rally sparked hopes for an economic turnaround and expectations for a relaxation in monetary policy. On Monday, traders will focus on the US, where the ISM manufacturing index (November) and the final summary from S&P Global on the same PMI will be released. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to give a speech, adding extra significance to the data release: markets are trying to pick up signals regarding the timing and depth of the next rate decision. Currently, futures on federal funds indicate nearly an 80% probability of a rate cut in December, and if the data comes in stronger than expected, confidence in impending easing may weaken.
Consumer Demand – Cyber Monday
For the retail sector, the "Black Friday" sales period comes to a close, spanning five days from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday. Early data indicates record activity: online sales in the US have surpassed last year’s records, with experts expecting overall revenues to be 5-7% higher than last year. This has significantly supported the American market, as consumers actively took advantage of discounts, particularly in the online segment. Investors will analyze this data as an indicator of consumer demand and its impact on quarterly reports from retailers. The monitoring of consumer confidence (Michigan index) at the end of the week will also show how sale-driven optimism has influenced household sentiment.
The Oil Market and OPEC+
Over the past weekend, OPEC+ countries held a meeting and, as expected, maintained production at current levels for the first quarter of 2026. No surprises followed, and oil prices remain stable: Brent is trading around $62-63 per barrel. The outcome of the meeting sent a message of stability overpowering aggressive production growth. Without intensified cuts, oil supply will remain steady, which keeps significant price increases in check. However, there remains a risk of new price pressure should geopolitical upheavals or a sudden drop in demand occur. Traders in Russian assets will closely track the results of the OPEC+ meeting: the potential for maintained supply surplus may weigh on the currencies of commodity exporters, including the ruble.
Corporate Reports from the US
- MongoDB (MDB): On Monday evening, the company will host a conference call discussing its results for the third quarter of the 2026 fiscal year. Analysts expect revenue growth driven by the adoption of cloud products. Investors are keen to see if the high forecasts for customer base expansion and profitability will materialize.
- Credo Technology (CRDO): Also after the market closes, it will disclose financial results for the second fiscal quarter of 2026. The indicators for a strong report point to continued growth in the business of optical network solutions amidst booming demand for AI infrastructure.
- ITT Inc. (ITT): The company will publish its report for the third quarter. This industrial group typically announces results in early December. Rising demand in aerospace and automation segments might bolster profit forecasts.
Investors will compare the results of these companies against previous expectations and analyze management's comments. Reports from technological and industrial firms will provide insights into corporate spending conditions and investment trends.
Corporate Reports from Europe and Asia
In Europe and Asia, no major reports are scheduled for Monday, but market participants are preparing for a week filled with corporate events. Presentations of results from German automotive giants and banks are on the agenda, along with reports from Japanese corporations. While Cyber Monday maintains the focus on consumers, participants in Asia are assessing local market reactions to global trends, such as the recovery of semiconductor demand or movements in national currencies. Attention will also be directed towards the status of the Russian market in the context of external factors.
The Russian Market
On the last trading day of Friday, the Moscow Exchange showed moderate growth against the positive backdrop of "Black Friday" and stabilized oil prices. The ruble strengthened against the dollar, holding above 75 per US dollar. On Monday, external signals—decisions from OPEC+ on oil and US macro statistics—may significantly influence Russian assets. Local events in early December are limited to confidence index releases or weak corporate data, hence the focus shifts to the global environment. Russian investors should monitor changes in oil prices and ruble dynamics, as they continue to determine the profitability of many securities on MOEX.
What Investors Should Watch For
- ISM and PMI (US): The results will demonstrate the strength of the industrial sector, which is particularly important in light of expectations for a Fed rate cut. Any slowdown or acceleration in PMI growth could sharply adjust forecasts for monetary policy.
- Jerome Powell's Speech: Any comments regarding the future interest rate trajectory or the economic situation in the US will instantaneously impact market expectations and currency exchange rates.
- Black Friday/Cyber Monday: Key sales figures will be recorded for both retail and online sectors. Strong results will bolster confidence in the retail sector and consumer demand, while weak figures will heighten caution.
- The Oil Market: OPEC+'s maintained production stability holds prices at current levels. However, all attention is on potential changes in supply and demand balance: oil continues to shape the sentiment in the energy sector and the exchange rates of commodity economies.
- Company Reports: MongoDB and Credo will reveal trends in technology and networking solutions, while ITT will reflect on industrial insights. Investors should observe whether analysts' forecasts materialize and adjust sector growth assessments accordingly.
Collectively, these factors will set the tone for trading at the beginning of December. By continuously monitoring indicators and corporate news, investors can better position themselves amidst market fluctuations.
