Analysis of Economic Events and Corporate Reports for Thursday, December 4, 2025: Putin's Visit to India, Macron's Visit to China, Brazil's GDP, U.S. Unemployment Claims, Canada's PMI, and Global Company Reports.
Thursday promises a diverse agenda for investors in global markets. World stock indices—from the American S&P 500 and the Japanese Nikkei 225 to the European Euro Stoxx 50 and the Russian MOEX index—are hovering near recent highs amid signs of slowing inflation and soft signals from central banks. Attention is now turning to fresh economic events and corporate reports: high-level diplomatic visits in Asia, key macroeconomic data (Brazil's GDP, U.S. employment statistics, Canada's PMI), and the financial results of several major companies. Investors will need to relate these factors to market dynamics: strong growth and employment figures will support risk appetite, while negative surprises may increase volatility.
Macroeconomic Calendar (MSK)
- 00:30 — USA: Weekly API Report on Crude Oil Inventories.
- 13:00 — Eurozone: Retail Sales (October).
- 15:00 — Brazil: GDP for Q3 2025.
- 16:30 — USA: Initial Claims for Unemployment Benefits (Weekly).
- 18:00 — Canada: Ivey PMI Business Activity Index (November).
Asia
- Asian markets will not receive significant new statistics on this day, so regional indices (such as the Nikkei 225 in Japan and Shanghai Composite in China) will lean towards external signals. Investor sentiment in Asia largely depends on global trends and news, and the lack of domestic data makes them more sensitive to events in the U.S. and Europe.
- Force majeure: The state visit of French President Emmanuel Macron to China continues (December 3-5). Meetings in Beijing aim to strengthen trade and economic cooperation between the EU and China. Although no breakthrough agreements are expected, the dialogue between these two major economies underscores China's geo-economic significance. For the Asia-Pacific financial markets, the direct impact of these negotiations will be neutral; however, any statements following the visit may temporarily increase volatility in specific sectors (e.g., aviation or technology, if relevant deals are discussed).
Europe
- The Eurozone will publish data on retail sales for October (13:00 MSK). The figure is expected to remain close to neutral following a slight decline in September. The state of consumer demand is an important indicator of economic health in Europe: an unexpected decrease in sales would heighten concerns about a slowing economy, while growth above expectations would support European stocks and the euro's exchange rate.
- European markets are generally experiencing a day without major internal shocks and will predominantly assess external factors. Focus will be on corporate reports from individual companies: for instance, the German metals company Aurubis will publish financial results, while the British retailer Frasers Group will report on operational successes. These news items can prompt movements in relevant stocks, but the impact on the broader European market will be limited. The Euro Stoxx 50 index maintains relatively stable dynamics, primarily reacting to general signals regarding the global economy and monetary policy.
Russia
- President Vladimir Putin of Russia begins an official visit to India (December 4-5). Negotiations with Indian leadership are focused on deepening trade ties, energy cooperation (including potential new agreements on oil and gas supplies), and joint investment projects. Signing major contracts—such as in defense or raw materials—could strengthen the positions of Russian corporations in these sectors in the future. However, the short-term impact on the Russian stock market from this visit is expected to be weak, acting more as a strategic factor rather than an immediate market driver.
- No new macro data is expected in the Russian domestic market on Thursday, following the publication of November inflation the day prior. The corporate reporting season on the MOEX is nearing completion—most major issuers have already disclosed results for the third quarter. In the absence of fresh internal triggers, investors will monitor external conditions: oil prices, movements in global markets, and currency factors. The Russian ruble remains in a relatively stable range around 78 to the dollar, supported by export revenues and currency interventions from the Ministry of Finance.
The USA and America
- Focus in the USA is on the state of the labor market. Weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits (16:30 MSK) will serve as a leading indicator ahead of the key jobs report (Nonfarm Payrolls) on Friday. If the number of new claims significantly drops, this will confirm the resilience of the labor market, potentially strengthening expectations of a more stringent policy from the Fed (putting pressure on bonds and supporting the dollar). Conversely, an increase in claims will signal cooling in the economy, weakening arguments for rate hikes—which will be viewed positively by stock indices.
- In Latin America, the main release is Brazil's GDP for Q3. Moderate growth is expected in the largest economy in the region, thanks to resilient domestic demand and raw material exports. Strong data will bolster investor confidence in emerging markets and support the Brazilian Bovespa index, whereas weak GDP figures could lead to a capital redistribution towards safer assets. Additionally, the Ivey PMI business activity index in Canada will be released at 18:00 MSK: this metric will reflect the state of Canadian business in November. A PMI increase above 50 points will indicate economic expansion and may strengthen the Canadian dollar, while a decline would intensify discussions about possible stimulus from the Bank of Canada.
- Corporate reporting (USA and Canada): A number of major companies will publish financial results, which may lead to heightened volatility in specific stocks. Before the opening of American exchanges, quarterly reports from leading Canadian banks (Toronto-Dominion Bank, Bank of Montreal, CIBC) and one of the largest retailers in the USA, Kroger, will be known. After trading closes, reports will be released from technology giant Hewlett Packard Enterprise, skincare retailer Ulta Beauty, discount retailer Dollar General, e-documentation software developer DocuSign, and others. If the earnings surpass expectations, the corresponding stocks may surge, setting a positive tone for the sector overall (from financials to consumer). Disappointing results, on the other hand, could lead to sell-offs in specific segments and hamper growth in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ indices.
Commodities and Currencies
- The oil market is monitoring data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) regarding crude oil inventories in the USA, published overnight. Preliminary estimates indicate a decrease in commercial stocks amid increased fuel consumption during the holiday transport period. If the actual decline in inventories is greater than expected, Brent and WTI prices will receive additional upward momentum. Conversely, an increase in inventories or a less significant reduction could pause the price rally. Additionally, traders are evaluating the outcomes of the recent OPEC+ meeting and signals regarding future production, which impact medium-term expectations in the oil market.
- In commodity markets, a relative equilibrium continues. Industrial metals are trading slightly higher, supported by recovering demand in China, while precious metals are consolidating after recent gains. The currency market reflects a softening rhetoric from the Fed: the US dollar index is declining towards recent lows, allowing emerging market currencies and commodity currencies (such as the Canadian dollar) to regain strength. The euro and the pound hold steady against the dollar, bolstered by local data. Meanwhile, the Russian ruble remains relatively stable, balancing the effects of recent oil price increases and domestic factors. Investors are watching currency market trends closely to timely assess risks for their international portfolios.
What Investors Should Pay Attention To
- US Labor Market Data: The number of new unemployment claims will provide an early signal of the economy's condition ahead of the official jobs report. A sharp decrease in claims will enhance expectations for economic growth and may spark bond yield fluctuations, while an increase in claims will argue for potential easing from the Fed.
- Quarterly Reports from Market Leaders: The financial results of companies such as Kroger, Dollar General, HPE, and the largest Canadian banks reflect the health of multiple sectors—from consumer demand to the banking system. Investors need to compare the released figures with forecasts: exceeding expectations could boost stocks in these sectors, while weak reports could lead to declines and reevaluation of industry outlooks.
- The Oil Market Situation: The dynamics of oil prices following the API inventory report will offer clues for the energy sector. A substantial reduction in inventories and subsequent oil price increases will improve sentiment in the energy segment and support export-oriented markets (including Russia), while unexpected inventory growth may temporarily weaken oil futures and related company stocks.
