Economic Events and Corporate Reports Review for Saturday, July 25, 2026: Empty Macroeconomic Calendar, Weekly Summary for S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, and MOEX, Russian Central Bank’s Key Rate Cut to 14%, New Tariff Round from the U.S., and Markets Preparing for the Fed’s Decision and Big Tech Earnings
Saturday, July 25, 2026, arrives at global markets after one of the most nerve-wracking weeks of the second half of the year. No economic publications are scheduled for this day: the exchanges in the U.S., Europe, Asia, and Russia are closed, official statistics are not being released, and corporate reports from major public companies are not due over the weekend. However, such a pause provides investors with the opportunity to consolidate disparate signals from the week into a cohesive picture. Over the five trading days, the markets received the ECB’s decision, the cut of the key rate by the Russian Central Bank, a spike in Brent oil prices above $100 per barrel, a new round of U.S. import tariffs, and the first wave of disappointments regarding artificial intelligence. Economic events and corporate reports on July 25, 2026, should be viewed as a day of risk reassessment ahead of the Fed meeting and the earnings reports from leading tech companies.
Macroeconomic Calendar: Why Markets are Silent on July 25
The global economic calendar is empty for Saturday across all key jurisdictions.
- U.S.: No publications from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, BLS, or regional Fed banks are scheduled. The market digests the preliminary PMI for July, which showed the fastest growth in business activity in eight months, and a drop in initial unemployment claims to a 57-year low.
- Eurozone: Following the ECB meeting and the block’s preliminary PMIs for Germany, the Eurozone, and the UK, no statistics are available. Inflation in the block remains around 2.8% with a target level of 2%.
- Asia: Japan, China, and India do not publish any releases. Attention has shifted to Chinese PMIs and the Bank of Japan’s decision, which are expected at the end of next week.
- Russia: Rosstat and the Bank of Russia are not conducting any publications. Weekly inflation for July 14-20 was 0.17%, matching the result of the previous week.
Weekly Summary: S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, and MOEX
The week ended with a second consecutive downturn for the American market. On Thursday, the S&P 500 lost 1.21% and closed at 7,408.30 points—its worst day in over a month. The Nasdaq Composite fell 2.15% to 25,137.69 points, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined by 0.97% to 51,711.65 points. On Friday, the indices partially regained losses as oil prices pulled back, but the weekly result remained negative. The total market capitalization of the "magnificent seven" dropped by nearly $800 billion in one Thursday session.
European indices moved in sync with Wall Street: Euro Stoxx 50 dropped 1.69% on Thursday, the DAX fell 1.56%, CAC 40 decreased by 1.64%, and FTSE 100 went down by 0.73%. The Nikkei 225 maintained a positive trajectory thanks to a weak yen and a resilient export segment. The MOEX index dipped below 2,100 points on Friday morning before the Central Bank of Russia’s decision but switched to growth after the meeting’s outcomes were published.
Oil and Geopolitics: Brent Above $100 and Retreating to $95
The main source of volatility for the week came from the energy market. Following statements from Yemen's Houthi movement regarding attacks on two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea, Brent surpassed $100 per barrel for the first time since late May. The yield on ten-year U.S. Treasury bonds temporarily climbed above 4.7%—the highest since the beginning of the year. On Friday, the prices reversed: Brent lost about 5% and dropped below $95 on reports of potential resumption of negotiations between Washington and Tehran mediated by third parties. Nonetheless, by the end of the week, oil finished trading in positive territory, and the premium for geopolitical risk in prices remains significant.
New U.S. Tariffs: 10–12.5% for 60 Trading Partners
Effective July 24 at 12:01 AM Eastern Time, a new tariff regime has been introduced in the U.S. The administration implemented additional tariffs of 10% and 12.5% on goods from 60 major trading partners, including the EU, China, and India, as a result of an investigation under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974. This move affects about 99.4% of U.S. imports, replacing the lapsed temporary 10% global tariff. A number of energy products are excluded from these tariffs. For investors, this signifies a new structural cost factor for importers, retail, and industrial supply chains—alongside an additional pro-inflationary risk for the Fed.
Corporate Reports of the Week: American Companies in S&P 500
The earnings season for Q2 of 2026 has passed its midpoint. Of the first 95 companies reporting from the S&P 500, around 88% exceeded consensus earnings estimates, with a median beat of approximately 7%. However, the market's reaction was asymmetrical: stocks were penalized for increased capital expenditures more heavily than they were rewarded for profit gains.
Technology and Artificial Intelligence
- Alphabet (GOOGL)—Revenue rose by 24% to $119.8 billion, and earnings amounted to $9.11 per share, while Google Cloud revenue increased by 82%. However, a doubling of the capital expenditure forecast to $205 billion caused shares to plummet by more than 7%.
- Tesla (TSLA)—Revenue grew by 26% to $28.2 billion, but earnings per share fell by 18% to $0.33, and free cash flow turned negative at $1.1 billion. Shares declined by about 14%.
- Intel (INTC), Texas Instruments (TXN), IBM, and ServiceNow (NOW) reported amidst a general correction in the semiconductor sector.
Finance, Consumer, and Telecom
- American Express (AXP), Verizon (VZ), and NextEra Energy (NEE) exceeded profit forecasts on Friday but fell short on revenue.
- Capital One (COF), Charles Schwab (SCHW), Blackstone (BX), Chubb (CB), and Comcast (CMCSA) contributed to the condition of the finance and media sectors.
Industry, Energy, and Transportation
- General Motors (GM), 3M (MMM), Honeywell (HON), RTX, Lockheed Martin (LMT), and Northrop Grumman (NOC) reflected the resilience of the defense cycle.
- Union Pacific (UNP), Norfolk Southern (NSC), CSX, and Canadian National Railway (CNI) provided insight into industrial activity in North America.
- SLB, Halliburton (HAL), Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), and Newmont (NEM) served as indicators of the commodity cycle.
Europe and Asia: SAP, STMicroelectronics, and Shin-Etsu Chemical
From the Euro Stoxx 50 and the broader European market, companies such as SAP SE, STMicroelectronics (STM), and Rogers Communications reported. The Asian block included the Japanese chemical giant Shin-Etsu Chemical, which is part of the Nikkei 225 and serves as a leading indicator for the semiconductor supply chain. The overall conclusion for the Old World this week: the industrial segment continues to lag behind the services sector, and energy costs remain the main risk for the margins of European exporters.
Russian Market: Key Rate at 14% and MOEX Issuer Reports
On July 24, the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia lowered the key rate by 25 basis points to 14.00% per annum—this marks the fourth easing since the beginning of the year. The updated medium-term forecast suggests an average key rate in the range of 14.5–14.6% in 2026 and 10.5–12.5% in 2027. The regulator noted moderate economic growth in the second quarter and attributed the summer acceleration in prices predominantly to one-off factors, while also indicating an increase in inflation expectations. The summary of the discussion will be published on August 5, with the next meeting scheduled for September 11.
Market reaction was positive: after an early fall below 2,100 points, the MOEX index turned upwards. The dollar rate set by the Bank of Russia since July 24 was 78.4049 rubles. Among corporate news this week, notable items included a decrease in the net profit of NOVATEK under IFRS for the half-year to 218.6 billion rubles, mixed results from Rusagro for the second quarter with a dividend recommendation of 16.48 rubles per share, and the inclusion of Yandex shares in the Moscow Exchange's value creation index starting July 30.
Next Week’s Calendar: Fed, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, and Big Tech
- Tuesday, July 28— Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index in the U.S.
- Wednesday, July 29— Inflation in Australia; Fed's interest rate decision (current range 3.50–3.75%) and press conference by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. The meeting will occur without updates to macro forecasts or a dot plot, so the market's focus will be on the wording of the statement. Reports from Microsoft (MSFT) and Meta Platforms (META).
- Thursday, July 30— Germany’s and the Eurozone’s GDP, Bank of England’s decision, inflation in Germany, U.S. GDP for Q2, and PCE deflator, consumer inflation in Japan. Reports from Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN).
- Friday, July 31— China’s business activity indices, Bank of Japan’s decision (current rate 0.50%), and preliminary inflation in the Eurozone.
What Investors Should Focus On
- The "Oil-Returns-Fed" Connection. The rise of Brent above $100, combined with record low unemployment claims, has shifted market expectations towards tighter Fed policy. For investors, this signifies the risk of reevaluating long bonds and growth companies.
- Capital Expenditures as a New Assessment Criterion. The reaction to Alphabet's report indicated that the market has shifted from rewarding AI investment scale to demanding proof of returns. Reports from Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon will serve as a decisive test of this thesis.
- The Tariff Factor. The 10-12.5% tariffs on 99.4% of U.S. imports necessitate a re-evaluation of profitability models for retail, consumer goods, and industrial importers.
- Russian Assets. The 14% rate and the forecast of an average rate of 10.5-12.5% for 2027 support long-term OFZs and heavily indebted issuers—including developers, retail, and transport sectors. A dampening factor is the dividend cut-off season and the weak index dynamics since early July.
- Seasonality. August begins the historically weakest three-month period for the U.S. stock market, reinforcing arguments for reducing leverage and checking hedging positions before the markets open on Monday.
Saturday, July 25, 2026, is a day without quotes but not devoid of conclusions. The global market environment enters the last week of the month with three simultaneously active sources of risk: geopolitical premiums in oil, tariff restructuring of trade flows, and the reevaluation of the artificial intelligence economy. Investors should use this pause to scenario plan for each of these areas and determine their reaction levels in advance—before the Fed’s decision and earnings from Big Tech set the tone for the markets in August.
