Key Economic Events and Corporate Reports for Monday, February 9, 2026: ECB President's Speech, Geopolitical Factors, Global Earnings Season and Investor Guidelines.
USA
Economy: The new week in the USA begins without major macroeconomic releases on Monday, as the publication of key indicators has been postponed due to a recent government shutdown. Nevertheless, investors are closely watching the January Consumer Inflation Expectations Index from the New York Fed, which will be released today – this indicator will help gauge household sentiments regarding inflation. Additionally, several Federal Reserve representatives are scheduled to speak, including comments from board members such as Christopher Waller and Raphael Bostic. The market will be looking for signals about the future course of monetary policy in their statements, especially in light of the pause in the rate hike cycle. On the political front, the focus in the USA will be on Congress's decision to gain access to classified materials related to the Jeffrey Epstein case – this move reflects lawmakers' efforts to achieve transparency and may resonate with the public, albeit without a direct impact on investments. Concurrently, the US administration is active in foreign policy: Vice President J.D. Vance is visiting Armenia today and then Azerbaijan to discuss trade, investment, and infrastructure projects in the South Caucasus region. These geopolitical steps demonstrate Washington's desire to strengthen economic ties and stability in this strategically important region, indirectly capturing the interest of global investors.
Corporate Reports (S&P 500, February 9): The American earnings season continues today, with several companies scheduled to release quarterly results before the market opens and after it closes. Before the trading session, reports will come from several representatives of the S&P 500 and mid-cap segment, including Becton Dickinson (medical equipment), Apollo Global Management (alternative investments), and Cleveland-Cliffs (steel industry). Investors will evaluate the revenue dynamics of these companies and their forecasts, particularly considering the impact of interest rates and demand for raw materials. Also reporting this morning will be IT services company Kyndryl (an IBM spin-off) and teamwork platform monday.com, which will indicate the state of the technology sector and corporate demand for services. After the close of the main session, attention will shift to the technology and industrial sector: ON Semiconductor (a major chip manufacturer), Amkor Technology (contract semiconductor manufacturing), Goodyear (a leading tire manufacturer), and Arch Capital Group (insurance and finance) will release their results. Investors are also anticipating reports from online freelancing platform Upwork and several other mid-sized companies. ON Semiconductor is of particular interest – its forecasts for earnings per share and revenue will signal the state of the global semiconductor industry, which serves as a barometer for the technology sector and the stock market as a whole. Overall, today's corporate reports from the USA will provide insights into whether companies are maintaining profit growth momentum amid a mixed macroeconomic landscape.
Europe
Economy: The central focus in Europe is ECB President Christine Lagarde's address to the European Parliament in Strasbourg. Lagarde will present the Parliament with a report on the ECB's activities and priorities for the coming year. It is expected that she will outline the strategy for tackling inflation and supporting the eurozone economy. Lawmakers intend to urge the ECB to gradually wind down the crisis measures implemented during the pandemic, restoring more market mechanisms to financial markets (including reviving interbank lending instead of excessive reliance on the ECB’s cheap loans). The topic of the digital euro will also be significant in the debates – the European Parliament is likely to support initiatives for developing a digital currency while emphasizing the need to maintain cash in circulation for financial inclusivity. Any comments from Lagarde regarding interest rates, inflation, or the euro's exchange rate could influence investor sentiment in Europe. Additionally, in the UK, KPMG/REC's January labor market report will be released, reflecting the state of hiring and the availability of skilled labor – this data comes after the Bank of England unexpectedly kept rates unchanged last week amid concerns over a cooling labor market. Today, the second estimate of Eurozone GDP for Q4 will also be published: preliminary figures indicated a growth of +0.3% q/q, and confirmation or revision of this figure could adjust growth expectations for the region. Overall, economic events of the day in Europe create a mixed backdrop: moderate economic recovery amid still elevated inflation and the cautious stance of regulators.
Corporate Reports (Euro Stoxx 50, Europe): The European earnings season is also gaining momentum, although Monday is not the busiest day for major companies to release results. Several corporations from the Euro Stoxx 50 index will release financial reports either today or in the coming days. TotalEnergies and Repsol (oil and gas sector) might attract attention with updated profit data amid energy price volatility, as well as Societe Generale and other banks continuing the stream of banking reports in Europe (most of the major banks in France and Germany reported last week). Today's key release includes the report of Dutch semiconductor company NXP Semiconductors (part of the broader European index), which will indicate whether demand for chips from the automotive industry and electronics manufacturers in Europe and Asia remains strong. Additionally, investors are focused on data from German industrial conglomerate Siemens: while its complete report is expected later, the company may share preliminary indicators or news about orders, considering recent signals of Germany's industrial revival. Overall, European companies are currently demonstrating a mixed result during this reporting season: strong exports and a weaker euro support manufacturers, while rising costs and interest rates pressure the financial sector and retail. Today's reports will refine this picture, although the main flow of European annual results will be concentrated in the second half of February.
Asia
Economy: Asian markets have begun the week on a positive note, receiving a boost from political and economic news. In Japan, the ruling coalition achieved a convincing victory in the extraordinary elections for the lower house of parliament held over the weekend. Investors welcomed the continuity of power under Prime Minister Sanae Takichi – a stable parliamentary majority facilitates the government's economic reforms and stimulus measures. Against this backdrop, the Japanese Nikkei 225 index continues to hold near multi-year highs, supported by inflows into export-oriented stocks. In China, attention is on the upcoming inflation data: tomorrow, CPI figures for January will be released, with analysts forecasting an annual inflation slowdown to around +0.4% (compared to 0.8% in December). If these expectations are confirmed, it will signal a gradual easing of deflationary risks in China amid recovering domestic demand. Additionally, China is expected to release data on lending and real estate price dynamics: the housing price index is likely to register the 31st consecutive monthly decline, reflecting a prolonged correction in the real estate market. Other parts of Asia will publish secondary but indicative figures: India will release its inflation level for January (important for the prospects of easing from the Reserve Bank of India), and Australia has reported business and consumer confidence data, showing improved sentiment after lifting quarantine restrictions. Overall, the Asian economic outlook today combines political stability (Japan) and cautious optimism regarding inflation (China), supporting global investors' interest in Asian assets.
Corporate Reports (Nikkei 225, Asia): In the Asia-Pacific region, we are currently in the middle of the financial year for many companies, particularly in Japan, where most corporations close the fiscal year on March 31. Nonetheless, several large Asian companies are presenting quarterly results today. In Tokyo, several representatives of the Nikkei 225 index will report after the market closes. Among them, SoftBank Corp. (telecommunications and internet services) will announce its third-quarter results for the 2025 financial year. The report from SoftBank Corp. is of interest to investors: the telecom business is stable, but the market awaits comments on the prospects for 5G and internet services, as well as the impact of yen fluctuations on profits. The Japanese recruiting giant Recruit Holdings will also publish results today – its revenue and earnings per share figures will serve as indicators of the labor market and online recruitment not only in Japan but globally (the company owns services like Indeed.com). In the technology sector, the report from Tokyo Ohka Kogyo (a manufacturer of semiconductor materials) is notable – improvements are expected due to rising demand for chips. In Seoul and Shanghai, Monday is relatively calm: the largest Korean and Chinese companies have already reported earlier or will do so later in the week. Thus, Asian corporate reports today are selective but significant: they show that despite external challenges, many Asian firms are maintaining solid growth. Investors in the region will be particularly attentive to company forecasts regarding global demand and the impact of currency fluctuations to adjust their investment strategies.
Russia
Economy: In Russia, the new business week is commencing against the backdrop of continued tight monetary policy. Although there are no key macroeconomic indicators being published on Monday, investors are already looking ahead to the upcoming Central Bank of Russia meeting at the end of the week. The Bank of Russia will convene to make a decision on interest rates, with the market consensus expecting the key rate to remain at 16.00%. This high rate reflects the regulator's persistent struggle against inflation: according to recent data, annual inflation accelerated to 6.4% in January (up from 5.6% in December), significantly exceeding the target benchmark of 4%. The tightening of monetary conditions is already impacting economic activity – consumer demand is cooling, mortgage lending is slowing, and the government has to devise support measures for certain sectors. The ruble remains relatively stable around 79-80 against the US dollar, supported by high oil prices and currency sales by exporters. There are no significant movements in the commodities market today: Brent oil is trading around $82 per barrel, and Russian energy exporters continue to generate solid revenue. Thus, the economic backdrop in Russia on February 9 reflects expectations of important decisions from the Central Bank and a balancing act between inflationary risks and the need to support economic growth.
Corporate Reports (MOEX, Russia): In the Moscow market, Monday is relatively calm in terms of corporate events – there are no large public companies releasing financial reports on February 9. The Russian earnings season for 2025 is just beginning, and the main publications of annual results for the largest issuers are still ahead. Investors are preparing for a flow of reports traditionally concentrated in the second half of February and March. For example, leading banks (Sberbank, VTB), oil and gas giants (Gazprom, Lukoil), and metallurgical companies will be announcing their results soon. Some corporations have already shared preliminary data: for instance, steelmaking company Severstal last week reported a nearly 80% drop in net profit for 2025 and decided not to pay dividends for Q4. This is a worrying signal from the metallurgical sector, where a combination of export duties, sanctions, and rising costs are significantly pressuring margins. However, more positive results are expected in other sectors – for example, retail networks and IT companies may have benefited from recovering domestic demand at the end of the year. The absence of major reports today gives investors time to analyze the already released data and prepare for key releases in the coming weeks. The overall sentiment is cautious: the market is closely monitoring corporate news to adjust equity portfolios on the Moscow Exchange based on fresh financial indicators and announced dividend policies.
Earnings Season in the USA: Results and Statistics
The US stock market is currently in the midst of the quarterly earnings season, and the overall results are pleasing investors. As of today, most companies in the S&P 500 have reported their earnings for Q4 2025, demonstrating business resilience even amid slower economic growth. Approximately 76% of companies have surpassed analysts' forecasts for earnings per share (EPS), which is slightly below the average for the past five years (~78%) and aligns with the average for the decade (~76%). Around 73% of companies reported revenue exceeding consensus expectations – this outcome even exceeds historical norms (averaging ~70% over the past five years and ~66% over the past decade). In other words, the share of positive sales surprises remains high, indicating sustained demand. The average beat on profit forecasts stands at around +7-8%, which is close to typical values from previous years. Such figures indicate that the earnings season in the USA is progressing successfully, although corporate profit growth is not as rapid as in previous quarters. It should be noted that investors are comparing current results to record figures from prior years, so even slight beats on forecasts are perceived positively. A particular contribution to the overall numbers has come from the technology and communications sectors – many tech giants have reported better-than-expected results, supporting the entire S&P 500. Approximately 40% of companies still have not published their reports, but the trend is set: the American corporate sector, on the whole, continues to exceed forecasts for earnings and revenue, albeit with a smaller margin than a year ago. For comparison, in the average over the past five years, about 75% of companies beat EPS forecasts, suggesting that the current season is statistically close to normal. This fact inspires cautious optimism – the US stock market is receiving support from fundamental factors, partially offsetting macroeconomic uncertainty.
Global Outlook: Regional Trends
The landscape of global markets at the start of the week appears mixed but generally moderately optimistic. The USA continues to demonstrate resilience in corporate earnings, even amid an economic slowdown – investors are hopeful that a combination of strong reports and easing inflation will allow the Federal Reserve to take a pause in rate hikes. The S&P 500 index in the USA strengthened last week and is now consolidating, reacting to every new signal from the Federal Reserve and fresh data. Europe, for its part, is showing signs of gradual improvement in macro conditions: revisions to Eurozone GDP for Q4 confirmed slight growth, while the ECB's political moves aim to balance combating inflation and supporting the economy. Meanwhile, European markets remain sensitive to comments from Christine Lagarde – any hints at a course change from the ECB (such as an earlier rate cut or, conversely, a prolonged pause) could trigger movement in the euro and a redistribution of capital between bonds and equities. Asia appears relatively strong at the start of 2026: the Japanese market is hitting records due to a combination of the Bank of Japan's easy monetary policy and political stability, while China's economy is gradually recovering from the restrictions of recent years. A key global indicator – commodity prices – remains stable: oil, metals, and food are trading without significant fluctuations, lowering global inflation risks and supporting emerging markets (including Russia). Russia, being partially isolated from global markets due to sanctions, is nevertheless integrated through commodity flows: stability in energy prices works in favor of its economy, although domestic issues (high inflation and interest rates) are restraining the potential of the Russian stock market. In a regional context, it can be concluded that the USA and Asia act as growth engines in the eyes of investors, while Europe and Russia are more vulnerable links, each for its reasons (the Eurozone is navigating between inflation and stagnation, Russia is balancing profitable exports with internal financial challenges). Globally, sentiments are moderately positive: the MSCI World index remains close to recent highs, and volatility (VIX) is at lower levels, indicating a relatively calm risk appetite. However, all regions face their challenges – from US inflation and European energy concerns to Chinese credit risks – so interregional differences in market dynamics may persist.
Conclusion: What Investors Should Pay Attention To
In conclusion of the day, investors from the CIS are advised to maintain vigilance and a balanced approach to their strategies. Investment strategy at this stage should consider several key factors:
-
Macroeconomic Signals: Pay attention to important data set to be released in the coming days – in the USA, this includes labor market statistics (Nonfarm Payrolls) moved to February 11 and CPI inflation (February 13). These indicators can significantly impact global risk appetite and the direction of the dollar, reflecting across all markets including Russia. In Europe - the outcomes of Lagarde's speech and the second GDP estimate; in Asia - the inflation figures from China. Market reactions to these economic events will indicate whether the current sentiments are justified.
-
Corporate Reports and Forecasts: The ongoing stream of quarterly results demands selectivity. Investors should pay special attention to companies that not only surpassed earnings per share and revenue forecasts but also raised guidance for future periods. Such firms generally lead in their sectors and can lift stock indices. In the USA, more than three-quarters of companies have reported better-than-expected results – this is a good indicator for identifying “stars” in the market. In Europe and Russia, the picture is less uniform, so it is important to understand the specifics of each sector. For example, in Russia, metallurgists are struggling due to market conditions, while oil and gas giants could pleasantly surprise due to exports. The earnings season is a time of increased equity volatility: this can be leveraged through portfolio balancing, adding more global names with robust earnings (US or Asian stocks), while approaching high-risk bets cautiously.
-
Monetary Policy and Geopolitics: The rhetoric of central banks is now as crucial as the figures themselves. Investors should heed regulators' comments – from the US Federal Reserve (several members have already signaled a willingness to pause tightening cycles), to the ECB, Bank of England, and Bank of Russia. Any hints at a course change could redistribute capital flows among equities, bonds, and commodity assets. On the geopolitical front, several potential risks remain: negotiations and visits by high-level officials (like Vance’s trip to the Caucasus) signal diplomatic movement, but unforeseen events – such as escalation of tensions anywhere – could always adjust market sentiments. Currently, no significant negative shocks are on the horizon, but diversification across regions and sectors remains the best safeguard against geopolitical surprises.
In summary, today sets the tone for the entire week: investors should evaluate the first signals and news from Monday and be prepared for active actions as new information emerges. Keep your focus on fundamental indicators – profits, revenue, economic growth – and don't succumb to short-term noise. There remains much data and reports ahead, and a savvy interpretation of these will help build an effective investment strategy even amid instability. Remember that discipline and a long-term outlook are the best allies for investors in today's dynamic market. Happy trading!
