Economic Events and Corporate Reports — Wednesday, January 28, 2026: Federal Reserve Meeting, Bank of Canada Rate, and Inflation in Russia and Australia

In-Depth Overview of Economic Events and Corporate Reports for January 28, 2026. US Federal Reserve Meeting, Bank of Canada's Decision, CPI Publication in Russia and Australia, Bank of Japan's Minutes, EIA Weekly Oil Inventories, and Corporate Reports from the US, Europe, Asia, and Russia.

Wednesday presents a comprehensive agenda for global markets. In Asia, attention is drawn to the minutes of the Bank of Japan's latest meeting and the opening of the largest air show, Wings India 2026, in Hyderabad (featuring Boeing, Airbus, and others), reflecting the growth of India’s aviation sector. In Australia, inflation data for Q4 is published, influencing expectations regarding the Reserve Bank of Australia's policy. The European session remains relatively calm in macroeconomic terms; however, investors are monitoring corporate reports from leading companies in the region, while the overall market conditions will largely be shaped by expectations surrounding central banks’ decisions in North America.

The day’s key event will be the meeting of the Federal Reserve System (Fed) late in the evening: the outcome of the FOMC meeting will set the tone for market participants regarding interest rates in the US and future monetary policy. Earlier, in the evening, the Bank of Canada will also announce its rate decision, establishing a baseline for other central banks. The energy market is focused on the weekly oil inventory statistics from the EIA, which could influence oil prices and commodity currencies. On the corporate front, a series of earnings results from major public companies will be released, spanning from US tech giants (Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, etc.) to industrial leaders in Europe (ASML, Volvo) and prominent players in Asian markets (Advantest, Maruti). Russian investors will assess new inflation statistics and operational results from X5 Group. Collectively, these factors will determine the dynamics of the S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, and Moscow Exchange indices during and at the conclusion of the day. Investors are advised to analyze events in conjunction: central bank decisions ↔ bond yields and the dollar exchange rate ↔ commodity prices ↔ risk appetite in stock markets.

Macroeconomic Calendar (MSK)

1. 02:50 — Japan: Publication of the minutes from the Bank of Japan's last meeting.
2. 03:30 — Australia: Consumer Price Index (CPI) for Q4 2025.
3. 05:00 — India: Opening of the Wings India 2026 air show (January 28-31, Hyderabad).
4. 17:45 — Canada: Bank of Canada's decision on key interest rate.
5. 18:30 — Canada: Press conference of the Bank of Canada’s head following the meeting.
6. 18:30 — US: Weekly commercial crude oil inventories (EIA).
7. 19:00 — Russia: Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2025 (preliminary data).
8. 22:00 — US: Fed's decision on interest rate (outcomes of the FOMC meeting).
9. 22:30 — US: Fed press conference (Chair Jerome Powell on the economy and monetary policy).

Federal Reserve: Interest Rate Decision

• Monetary Policy: Markets expect the Fed to maintain the federal funds rate at its current level following a tightening cycle. Attention is focused on whether the FOMC signals a potential shift in direction in the coming months. Any hint at an imminent rate cut could spur stock prices and weaken the dollar, while statements indicating a continuation of a hawkish stance to combat inflation could lead to increased yields on Treasury bonds and pressure on high-risk assets.
• Forecasts and Rhetoric: Investors are closely analyzing the accompanying statement and tone of Jerome Powell's comments. Evaluations of the US economy are essential – a stable labor market and inflation near target levels may allow the Fed to pause or conclude its rate hike cycle. However, if the regulator expresses concern over persistent inflationary pressures, it could indicate a prolonged period of high rates without easing.
• Market Reaction: The Fed's decision and the tone of the press conference typically trigger increased volatility. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq may react sharply to any changes in rate forecasts, with the tech sector being particularly sensitive. The US dollar's exchange rate and the prices of gold and oil also directly depend on the Fed’s signals, as they influence global liquidity and risk appetite.

Bank of Canada: Rate Expectations

• Interest Rate Decision: The Bank of Canada will announce its key rate decision in the context of stabilizing inflation around the target of 2%. Most analysts expect no change in the rate due to a slowdown in the Canadian economy at the end of 2025. However, an unexpected change in the rate would surprise the markets, directly affecting the Canadian dollar (CAD) and the dynamics of the TSX index on the Toronto Stock Exchange.
• Regulator Comments: At the press conference, the head of the Bank of Canada will provide an updated view on inflation risks and the economic state. Investors will assess whether the rhetoric indicates the possibility of future rate cuts in 2026. Any mentions of the stability of commodity prices (important for the Canadian economy) and the state of the housing market will affect monetary policy expectations. Similarities or divergence in approach between the Bank of Canada and the US Fed could set the tone for movements in currency pairs such as USD/CAD and the overall sentiment of global investors.

Inflation in Australia and Russia

• Australia (CPI): The consumer inflation data for Q4 2025 will reflect the pace of price growth in the Australian economy. Special attention is given to the core CPI: a sustained slowdown in core inflation may strengthen expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia will refrain from further rate hikes or shift to easing policy. Against the backdrop of a slowing Chinese economy (Australia's key trading partner) and declining commodity prices, weak CPI figures will bolster "dovish" sentiment, while an unexpected rise in inflation could increase Australian bond yields and strengthen the AUD.
• Russia (Price Index): Rosstat will publish new data on consumer prices, which will provide insights into the inflation dynamics at the end of 2025. In previous months, inflation in Russia accelerated amidst a weaker ruble and budget stimulus, forcing the Bank of Russia to raise its key rate. If December data show a slowdown in price growth, it may reduce pressure on the regulator regarding further tightening. However, high inflation (significantly above the target of 4%) will maintain expectations for a high key rate in Russia. The reaction of the OFZ market (federal loan bonds) and the ruble's exchange rate will depend on whether the statistics meet forecasts or present a surprise.

Oil and Commodities: EIA Inventory Report

• US Oil Inventories: The weekly report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) on crude oil and petroleum product inventories in the US, traditionally released on Wednesdays, serves as an indicator of the supply-demand balance in the largest global fuel market. If the data shows a substantial decrease in commercial oil inventories, this may indicate sustained demand or limited supply, supporting price growth for Brent and WTI crude oil. Conversely, an unexpected rise in inventories could weaken oil prices, particularly affecting stocks in the energy sector and currencies of commodity-exporting countries (including the Russian ruble and Canadian dollar).
• Commodity Price Dynamics: Beyond inventories, investors are monitoring the overall trend in commodity markets. Oil prices towards the end of January are influenced by a mix of factors: geopolitics, OPEC+ production agreements, and global demand outlook. Fluctuations in oil prices impact inflation expectations worldwide. Prices for industrial metals and gold are also under observation: expectations for a dovish Fed may support precious metals, while strong data from the Chinese economy typically boost prices for industrial metals.

US: Earnings Reports from Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, and Others

• Microsoft (MSFT): A leading component of the S&P 500, Microsoft will release its financial results for October-December 2025. Investors anticipate revenue growth amidst steady demand for Azure cloud services and AI products. Special emphasis will be placed on management's comments regarding AI and enterprise software business prospects. A strong report from Microsoft could support the entire US tech sector, while weak numbers may trigger a sell-off of growth stocks.
• Meta Platforms (META): The parent company of Facebook and Instagram will report for Q4 2025, which includes the holiday advertising season. The market expects a recovery in ad revenue growth due to enhanced monetization efforts for Reels and a stable audience. Additionally, focus will be on spending for metaverse and AI projects – investors are seeking signs of improved profitability after previous cost-cutting measures in the year. Meta's results will influence the NASDAQ, especially within the internet segment.
• Tesla (TSLA): The largest electric vehicle manufacturer will publish its financial metrics for Q4, including delivery figures for the entire year of 2025. Investor attention is focused on Tesla's operating margin – whether the company has maintained profitability amidst high competition and increased raw material costs. Markets are also expecting updates on the production of new models (such as the Cybertruck) and demand forecasts for 2026. Tesla's stock performance post-report could significantly impact the Nasdaq index and the sentiment around the automotive sector.
• IBM (IBM): The conservative tech giant will report its earnings for the last quarter of 2025. Investors will scrutinize results from its cloud solutions and software divisions, as well as metrics from IBM's recently restructured business (the spin-off of its services division into a separate company, Kyndryl). A stable increase in IBM's revenue and profit will serve as a positive signal for "old" IT companies, while weak segments (e.g., consulting or mainframes) may amplify concerns regarding corporate client demand.
• Starbucks (SBUX): The world's largest coffeehouse chain will release results for its Q1 2026 fiscal quarter (October-December 2025). Focus will be on same-store sales (like-for-like) in the US and China: the recovery of consumer activity in China post-COVID restrictions could have significantly boosted revenue in Asia, while investors in the US are interested in the resilience of demand amid high-interest rates. Starbucks' profitability and the dynamics of its loyalty program will also be under analysts' scrutiny. The outcomes of the SBUX report will help assess the state of the consumer sector and trends in the hospitality industry.

Europe: Reports from ASML, Volvo, and Other Companies

• ASML Holding (ASML): The Dutch manufacturer of microchip equipment, one of the largest companies in the Euro Stoxx 50, will report its Q4 2025 results. ASML's performance is considered a barometer for the semiconductor industry in Europe and worldwide. Investors expect data on new orders for photolithographic systems, especially given potential declines in demand from chipmakers in China and Taiwan. ASML's management forecasts for 2026 (especially around demand for advanced EUV scanners) will impact the entire European tech sector.
• AB Volvo (VOLV): The Swedish truck and specialty vehicle manufacturer will present its financial results for Q4. Volvo's metrics are of interest as an indicator of global industrial activity: order volumes for trucks in Europe, North America, and Asia will reflect the state of the transportation and construction sectors. Margins in the business will also be in focus – whether the company has managed to pass on rising costs (raw materials, energy, labor) to equipment prices. Stable results from Volvo will support the industrial sector's stocks in Europe, while signs of declining demand could raise caution among investors.
• Lonza Group (LONN): The Swiss chemical-pharmaceutical company, specializing in producing ingredients and services for biotech, will unveil its Q4 2025 earnings. Lonza is a key contractor for numerous pharmaceutical companies, so its revenue and order dynamics reflect trends in the development of new drugs and vaccines. Investors are expecting updates on margins, as high energy costs in Europe may have impacted profitability. Lonza's results will signal the state of the pharmaceutical sector and the level of investment activity in biotechnology.
• Other European Companies: Other European firms from various sectors will also publish reports on Wednesday. These include Royal KPN (Netherlands, telecommunications), Tele2 (Sweden, communications), online broker Nordnet (Sweden), and steelmaker SSAB (Sweden). Although these companies may not be among the largest by market capitalization, their results contribute to the overall picture of the telecommunications sector, fintech services, and industry in the European region. The local market's reaction to their reports will depend on whether the companies exceed analysts' forecasts or face a slowdown in growth.

Asia: Earnings Reports from Advantest, Maruti, Larsen & Toubro

• Advantest (6857.T): The Japanese manufacturer of semiconductor testing equipment will report results for Q3 of the 2025 fiscal year. The company is a notable component of the Nikkei 225, and its earnings will allow for evaluating the state of the global chip supply chain. A growing order book from semiconductor manufacturers (such as those in Taiwan and the US) will indicate a rebound in the industry, while weak sales signal continuing inventory correction in the sector. Investors are also interested in Advantest's comments on demand for new chip testing equipment amid the evolution of AI and 5G technologies.
• Larsen & Toubro (LT.NS): The largest Indian engineering and construction conglomerate will announce its financial results for the quarter. L&T's metrics serve as a barometer for investment activity in India’s infrastructure and industry. Growth in profits and the order book amid government projects and private investments will reinforce the country's economic development. Special attention will be paid to project margins and conditions in the energy sector. Strong results from L&T could support the growth of the Indian Nifty 50 index and strengthen the confidence of foreign investors in the Indian market.
• Maruti Suzuki India (MARUTI): The largest car manufacturer in India, controlling about half of the local car market, will release its results for Q3 of the 2026 fiscal year. Investors will evaluate Maruti’s vehicle sales performance amidst rising interest rates and competition from foreign brands. Metrics of export and market share for new models, along with management's comments on the state of supply chains (chip shortages) and plans for electric vehicles, will be particularly significant. Maruti’s results will reflect sentiments in the automotive sector of Asia and signal consumer demand in emerging markets.

Russia: X5 Group and Corporate Results of the Day

• X5 Group (FIVE): Russia's leading retail chain (brands include "Pyaterochka", "Perekrestok", and others) will present its operational results for 2025. Investors are interested in the dynamics of comparable sales (LFL) in the food segment against the backdrop of double-digit food inflation and changing consumer behavior. Overall revenue growth is anticipated due to new store openings and the development of online delivery; however, growth rates may slow compared to the peak of post-pandemic recovery. X5 may also disclose preliminary profit or margin estimates, which will help assess the impact of cost inflation (salaries, logistics) on retail. As one of the "blue chips" of the Moscow Exchange index, X5 is positioned to influence sentiment in the Russian stock market, particularly in the consumer goods sector.
• Other Corporate Events in Russia: In addition to X5, relative newcomer public retailer Henderson Fashion Group (HNFG) will also release operational results for 2025. Although Henderson's business scale does not compare to X5, its performance is of interest as a recovery indicator for non-food retail and the fashion segment in Russia. Furthermore, investors on the Russian market continue to monitor external factors—decisions by the US Fed and oil prices, which may outweigh the influence of local reports. Together with inflation data in Russia, these corporate news pieces will help shape expectations regarding the future monetary policy of the Bank of Russia and the overall state of the economy.

Day's Summary: Key Takeaways for Investors

• 1) Central Bank Decisions (Fed and Bank of Canada): These will define the global "tone" for markets. Soft signals will support stocks and bonds, while tough rhetoric will increase volatility, particularly in currency and commodities segments.
• 2) Inflation Data: These will indicate price trajectories across different regions. Low CPI in Australia and a slowdown in inflation in Russia will be positive for local markets, while unexpected increases will heighten expectations for tight policies by regulators.
• 3) Corporate Earnings from Giants: Results from Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, and other leaders will set the direction for the tech sector and indices on Wall Street. In Europe and Asia, key firms (ASML, Volvo, Advantest, etc.) will provide signals for their industries. Surprises from reports may lead to sharp movements in individual stocks and sectors.
• 4) Oil Market: The reaction of oil prices to the EIA statistics will reflect on oil and gas companies and oil-dependent economies. Investors need to understand whether inventory changes are a short-term fluctuation or part of a more sustained demand/supply trend.
• 5) Geopolitics and Other Factors: Alongside scheduled events, a backdrop of geopolitical risks and news remains that could unexpectedly adjust sentiment. Market participants should maintain flexibility: a combination of macro data, regulatory decisions, and corporate results creates a complex picture, requiring a balanced approach to risks and assets.