Economic Events and Corporate Reports: Friday, July 31, 2026 - Bank of Japan Decision, Eurozone Inflation, Reports from ExxonMobil, Chevron, and Norilsk Nickel
Friday, July 31, 2026, marks the end of one of the busiest weeks on the summer business calendar. The week saw the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh, the first estimate of U.S. GDP for the second quarter, and the reports from tech giants Apple, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon. The week's finale is equally significant: investors are anticipating the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision, preliminary eurozone inflation data for July, China's business activity indices, and quarterly reports from oil giants ExxonMobil and Chevron. In the Russian market, attention is focused on Norilsk Nickel's half-year reporting under IFRS. The last trading day of the month traditionally coincides with portfolio rebalancing, heightening volatility in global stock markets.
Key Events of the Day: A Brief Overview
- Bank of Japan's interest rate decision, updated forecast report, and Kazuo Ueda's press conference.
- Preliminary consumer price index (CPI) estimate for the eurozone for July.
- Official China’s purchasing managers' indices (PMI) for July.
- Employment Cost Index (ECI) for Q2, Chicago PMI, and final consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan in the U.S.
- Quarterly reports: ExxonMobil, Chevron, AbbVie, Linde, Colgate-Palmolive, Eaton, Sony Group, Moderna, and others.
- Publication of consolidated financial statements from Norilsk Nickel under IFRS for the first half of 2026.
Bank of Japan: Interest Rate, Forecasts, and Yen at 40-Year Lows
The main macro event of Friday is the outcome of the two-day Bank of Japan meeting. The consensus anticipates maintaining the key interest rate at 1% per annum; however, the intrigue lies in the details: alongside its decision, the regulator will publish its quarterly forecast report, and Governor Kazuo Ueda will hold a press conference. The yen is hovering near 40-year lows—around 163–164 to the dollar—adding pressure on the regulator and increasing the likelihood of currency interventions. Any indication of a quicker rate hike cycle could trigger a yen appreciation, a reversal of global carry trades, and corrections in the Nikkei 225 index, which is sensitive to currency factors due to the high proportion of exporters.
Eurozone Inflation: Testing the ECB's Course
At 12:00 MSK, Eurostat will present the preliminary estimate for consumer price growth for July. Following a drop in annual inflation to 2.8% in June, economists expect a rebound to around 2.9–3.0% due to rising energy prices amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. Core inflation is expected to remain near 2.4%. This data release will be a key argument in the discussion regarding a possible ECB rate hike at the meeting on September 10—markets are already pricing in a high probability of tightening. Stronger-than-expected data will support the euro but apply pressure on the Euro Stoxx 50 and DAX indices.
U.S. Statistics: Labor Costs and Consumer Sentiment
The American calendar on Friday is noticeably lighter than in previous days, but certain releases will remain in focus:
- Employment Cost Index (ECI) for Q2—a crucial indicator for the Fed regarding wage pressure on inflation.
- Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for July—an early signal ahead of the ISM report due at the beginning of August.
- Final estimate of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, including household inflation expectations.
Following the Fed's decision to maintain rates and the release of PCE deflator data the day prior, these releases will clarify the trajectory of monetary policy for the fall, with inflation still above the target 2%.
China: PMI Indices to Set the Tone for Commodity Markets
In the morning, official July PMI data will be released from China—covering both the manufacturing and services sectors. Following a recent Politburo meeting which outlined measures to support domestic demand, investors will be seeking confirmation of stabilization in the world's second-largest economy. PMI data will directly affect oil prices, industrial metals, and shares of commodity companies—from Europe's mining sector to Russian exporters.
ExxonMobil and Chevron: Day of Oil Giants on Wall Street
Before the opening of trading in the U.S., quarterly results will be released by ExxonMobil and Chevron. ExxonMobil has already guided the market: second-quarter profits are expected to exceed the first quarter by around $5 billion, driven by a spike in oil prices (average Brent price during the quarter was around $96.7 per barrel, +23% from Q1) and a recovery in refining margins. Investors will assess the sustainability of the $20 billion annual share buyback program and a dividend history of 43 consecutive years of increases. For Chevron, the focus will be on the integration of Hess assets, production in Guyana and the Permian Basin, and the ability to generate free cash flow amid volatile commodity prices.
Other U.S. Reports: Pharma, Consumer Sector, and Industry
In addition to the oil majors, several companies will also report before market open:
- AbbVie—sales dynamics of the immunology portfolio Skyrizi and Rinvoq;
- Linde—a barometer of global industrial health through demand for industrial gases;
- Colgate-Palmolive—pricing strategy and organic growth within the consumer segment;
- Eaton—orders related to electrification and data center construction;
- Dominion Energy, Cameco, Cboe Global Markets, T. Rowe Price, Moderna, AutoNation—a wide cross-section of sectors from energy to finance.
Overall, the earnings season is shaping up strongly: according to FactSet, earnings for S&P 500 companies in Q2 grew almost 25% year-on-year—marking the second consecutive quarter with growth rates exceeding 20%.
Asia and Europe: Sony and the Peak of Reporting Week
In Asia, the key corporate release will be from Sony Group—investors will evaluate results from the gaming, music, and semiconductor segments, as well as the effect of a weak yen on revenue for this exporter. In Europe, the peak of the earnings season occurred mid-week when heavyweights like EssilorLuxottica, GSK, and Rio Tinto reported; on Friday, attention will shift to macroeconomic statistics and the final weekly dynamics of Euro Stoxx 50 amid the inflation report.
Russian Market: Norilsk Nickel and a Wave of Half-Year Reports
On the Moscow Exchange, Norilsk Nickel will publish its consolidated financial statements under IFRS for the first half of 2026 on July 31. The market will assess the impact of prices on palladium, nickel, and copper, the dynamics of capital expenditures, and the company’s debt load—factors that will influence its potential return to dividend payments. Additionally, the end of the month traditionally brings a wave of half-year reports under RAS from a wide range of issuers within the MOEX index, while investors continue to digest the results from Sberbank, Yandex, VTB, and Ozon, which were released in the final days of July.
What Investors Should Focus on July 31, 2026
The last trading day of July brings together multiple risk factors and opportunities. The day's priorities are as follows:
- Bank of Japan's Rhetoric. Even if the rate remains unchanged, firm signals from Ueda could trigger a sharp yen appreciation and a global unwinding of carry trades—with implications for developing market currencies and risk assets.
- Eurozone Inflation. A rebound above 3% would strengthen expectations for a September ECB rate hike and may apply pressure on European equities and bonds.
- Reports from ExxonMobil and Chevron. Management comments on oil prices, drilling activity, and buybacks will set the tone for the entire energy sector, including Russian oil producers.
- China's PMI. Weak data would be a warning signal for commodity currencies, metals, and exporters; strong data would bolster global risk appetite.
- End-of-Month Effect. Rebalancing by large funds may amplify price movements in both directions, so increased volatility unrelated to fundamental news may occur in the last hour of trading.
The combination of central bank decisions, inflation statistics, and reports from commodity giants makes July 31 a day when risk management discipline is more critical than chasing short-term returns. A balanced approach, currency and sector diversification, and attention to companies’ forecasts for the second half of the year will help investors navigate the month-end closure without unnecessary losses.
