Current News in the Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector as of November 24, 2025: Global Events, Analytics, Processing, Gas, Power Generation, and Oil Products.
As the new week begins, global oil and gas markets are responding to key geopolitical signals and industry events. Amid attempts at diplomatic resolution regarding the conflict in Ukraine, oil prices have dropped to a monthly low, while notable shifts occur within the energy sector – from increased LNG exports to Europe to record profits in refining and the compromise results of the COP30 climate summit. Below is an overview of the main news and trends in the fuel and energy complex (FEC) as of November 24, 2025.
Global Oil Market: Hopes for Peace and New Sanctions
Oil prices are declining. Global oil prices ended last week at their lowest level in a month. Brent has fallen to about $62.5 per barrel, while WTI is down to $58.1, representing a 3% decrease from levels the previous week. The price pressure is attributed to the U.S. initiative aimed at achieving a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine: investors are anticipating the possibility of an end to the protracted conflict and the lifting of some sanctions, which could bring additional volumes of Russian oil back to the market. Concurrently, risk sentiment is undermined by high interest rates in the U.S. and a stronger dollar, making commodities more expensive for buyers holding other currencies.
Sanctions and prospects for their lifting. On Friday, November 21, new U.S. sanctions were implemented against the largest Russian oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil. These restrictions aim to further reduce Russia’s revenues from oil exports. However, the proposed U.S. peace plan for Ukraine implies that if agreements are reached, these sanctions could be lifted. The market is already pricing in this possibility: the risk of disruptions to Russian supplies has slightly decreased, although experts warn that a genuine peace deal is far from guaranteed. Moscow and Kyiv currently express skepticism regarding the plan’s conditions, and analysts note that a final agreement may require significant time.
Supply and demand balance. Fundamental factors in the oil market are shifting towards a potential oversupply. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has adjusted its forecast in its latest report: it is expected that the global oil market will face a slight surplus by 2026. OPEC+ plans to maintain a cautious policy – the cartel previously signaled a pause in production increases in Q1 2026 to prevent excessive oil supplies amid rising outputs from non-OPEC countries. Banking analysts, including those from Goldman Sachs, also predict a moderate decline in oil prices over the next year or two due to an anticipatory rise in supply. An additional indicator of excess supply is the record volume of oil stored on tankers at sea: traders estimate that due to sanctions, a significant portion of Russian crude is accumulating in floating storage awaiting buyers. All these factors collectively keep oil prices under pressure.
U.S. Shale Production: A $60 Test
Low oil prices are beginning to impact the U.S. shale sector. In the largest U.S. oil field – the Permian Basin (covering Texas and New Mexico) – there is a notable reduction in drilling activity. Companies are shelving drilling rigs, and a wave of layoffs has swept through the industry: the cost of shale oil production for several independent producers is nearing the current market price of around $60 per barrel, questioning the profitability of new wells. Reports from the region indicate that in recent weeks, dozens of drilling rigs have been shut down, and some oilfield service companies are optimizing their staff.
Nevertheless, experts note that the U.S. shale industry has previously endured similar downturn cycles and has shown resilience. Major players with stable financing are seizing the moment to acquire assets: amid reduced production, mergers and acquisitions have gained traction. Recently, the industry was stirred by news of ExxonMobil's major deal to acquire a shale producer (strengthening the major's position in the Permian Basin). Consolidation is expected to continue as smaller producers prefer to sell or merge rather than endure price pressures. If prices remain at relatively low levels, the slowdown in U.S. production could balance the market and lead to a new contraction in supply by the second half of 2026, subsequently supporting prices.
Oil Products and Refining: Margin Surge and Infrastructure Challenges
Record profits for refiners. In contrast to crude oil, oil product markets are exhibiting heightened tension. In November, refining margins in many key markets have reached multi-year highs. According to industry analysts, European refineries are netting approximately $30–34 per barrel of crude in profit from fuel sales – a level not seen since 2023. A similar situation is observed in the U.S. (the 3-2-1 crack spread index is approaching record values) and in Asia. Several factors have benefited refiners:
- Capacity reductions: a series of planned and unplanned refinery outages worldwide have led to reduced supplies of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. In the U.S. and Europe, some plants have closed in recent years, and large new refineries in Nigeria and the Middle East (such as Dangote and Al-Zour) have temporarily decreased output due to repairs and ramp-ups.
- Drone attacks and sanctions: drone strikes on oil refineries and pipelines in Russia during the conflict have diminished the country's oil product exports. Simultaneously, embargoes and tariffs on Russian oil products (imposed by Western nations) have restricted the availability of diesel on the global market, particularly in Europe.
- High diesel demand: Europe is experiencing a structural diesel deficit – economic growth and colder weather sustain demand, while domestic refining cannot fully meet it. Import supplies from Asia, the Middle East, and the U.S. do not always suffice to fill the gap, pushing diesel prices higher.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) notes that due to this margin rally, oil companies are revising their forecasts: despite bleak expectations at the beginning of the year, Q3 2025 turned out to be extremely successful for the downstream segment. For example, French TotalEnergies reported a 76% year-on-year increase in profits for its refining business, thanks to favorable market conditions. Experts believe that high margins will persist at least until year-end, encouraging refineries to ramp up capacity utilization post-fall maintenance.
Pipeline failure in the U.S. Infrastructure issues also affect the oil products market. In November, a leak occurred in one of the largest product pipelines in the U.S. – the Olympic Pipeline system, which delivers gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel from Washington State to neighboring Oregon. The leak was discovered on November 11 near Everett, WA, after which the operator (BP) was forced to halt operations. State authorities declared a state of emergency as the shutdown disrupted jet fuel supply to Seattle International Airport. By week’s end, emergency crews had excavated over 30 meters of pipe in search of the damage, but the leak's source could not be immediately identified. One of the two pipeline strands has been partially restarted, but overall, the system is not operating at full capacity. The incident underscores the vulnerability of fuel infrastructure: regional fuel reserves had to be replenished through trucking and emergency supplies, and local prices for jet fuel and gasoline briefly spiked. The pipeline is expected to return to full operation only after repairs and inspections.
Gas Market and Energy Security in Europe
The European gas market enters the winter season relatively stably, but energy security remains a top priority. Thanks to active purchases of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and consumption savings over the past months, underground gas storage in EU countries is filled close to record levels as winter begins. This helps mitigate the risks of a sharp price spike in case of colder weather. Meanwhile, European countries continue to diversify their gas sources, reducing dependence on supplies from Russia:
- New LNG terminals in Germany: The EU's largest economy is increasing its LNG reception capacity. A fifth floating terminal for regasification (FSRU) is set to launch in 2026 at the mouth of the Elbe (Port of Stade). LNG has already comprised about 11% of all Germany's gas imports in the first three quarters of 2025. Construction of permanent terminals is proceeding at an accelerated pace – Berlin seeks to fully replace gas that was lost from Russian pipelines in 2022-2023.
- Balkan Gas Pipeline with U.S. Support: In Southeast Europe, the long-discussed project for an alternative gas pipeline is getting underway. Bosnia and Herzegovina, with U.S. assistance, has revived plans for a connecting pipeline to Croatia – the so-called "Southern Interconnector." Gas will flow from the Croatian LNG terminal on the island of Krk, allowing the Bosnian side to reduce dependence on Russian gas, which currently comes through the "Turkish Stream." American partners have expressed willingness to be leading investors in the project. Prior internal political disputes in Bosnia and Herzegovina had previously hindered its implementation, but now the project has gained new support and momentum.
- Ukraine Increases Imports: In the context of escalating conflict with Russia, Ukraine faces significant challenges in its gas sector. Due to attacks on its infrastructure, the country has lost up to half of its gas production in recent months. To get through the winter, Kyiv is sharply increasing fuel purchases from neighboring countries. In November, the trans-Balkan supply route was reactivated – about 2.3 million cubic meters of gas per day is being imported from Greece (where an LNG terminal is located) via Romania and Bulgaria. Additionally, Ukraine is consistently receiving gas from Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia. These measures help offset the deficit created by the attacks and support energy supply for Ukrainian consumers during the winter period.
Energy Security and Policy. Several European countries are placing increased attention on control over critical energy infrastructure. For instance, the Italian government has expressed concerns about the involvement of Chinese investors in capital of companies owning national electricity grids and gas pipelines. Officials state that strategic networks must remain under reliable domestic control – measures are being discussed to limit the share of foreign shareholders in such assets. This move aligns with the overall trend within the EU toward enhanced energy independence and protection of infrastructure from geopolitical risks.
Pricing Situation. Thanks to high reserves and diversification of sources, spot gas prices in Europe remain relatively moderate for this season. Regulators in various countries continue to protect consumers: in the UK, starting in December, the cap rate for households (price cap) will rise slightly – by just 0.2% – reflecting the stability of wholesale prices. Nonetheless, electricity and heating bills remain above pre-crisis levels, and governments are forced to balance between market prices and support measures for the public.
Power Generation and Coal: Contradictory Trends
In global electricity generation, two opposing trends are evident: a rise in “green” energy sources and a simultaneous increase in coal use to meet demand. This is largely exemplified by China and several developing Asian countries:
Record Electricity Generation in China. In the PRC, electricity demand is rising sharply – October 2025 marked a historical high in generation for that month (over 800 billion kWh, +7.9% year-on-year). At the same time, output from thermal power plants (primarily coal-fired) increased by more than 7%, compensating for seasonal declines in output from wind and solar stations. Despite efforts to develop renewable energy sources, around 70% of electricity in China is still produced from coal, so the rise in consumption inevitably leads to increased coal burning.
Coal Shortages and Rising Prices. Paradoxically, while coal utilization in China hits records, domestic coal production has slightly declined. This is due to imposed restrictions by Beijing on mine operations (safety measures and efforts to combat overcapacity). As a result, official data shows that coal production in October was down 2.3% compared to the previous year. The reduction in supply on the domestic market has led to rising prices: the benchmark price for thermal coal at China's largest port, Qinhuangdao, has risen to 835 yuan per ton (approximately $117), around 37% above the summer low. The deficit is also being compensated through imports – China is ramping up coal purchases from Indonesia and Australia, sustaining high demand in the global market.
Global Coal Record. According to IEA estimates, global coal production in 2025 is expected to rise to a new record – approximately 9.2 billion tons. The main contribution to the increase comes from China and India, where economic growth still largely relies on coal-based energy. International experts express concern: persistently high levels of coal combustion hinder achieving climate goals. Nonetheless, in the short term, many countries are forced to balance between environmental commitments and the need for reliable energy supplies.
Energy System Under Fire. In Europe, targeted strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure remain a concern. According to the operator "Ukrenergo," as of the morning of November 23, over 400,000 consumers were without electricity, particularly in eastern regions subjected to nighttime bombardments. Repair crews are working around the clock to connect reserve schemes and restore power lines, yet every new damage complicates the passage through the autumn-winter peak load. Ukraine’s power grid is integrated with the European ENTSO-E, allowing for emergency electricity imports during shortages, but the situation remains extremely tense. International partners are providing equipment and funding for maintaining the Ukrainian energy grid.
Renewable Energy: Projects and Achievements
The renewable energy (RE) sector continues to develop steadily worldwide, demonstrating new records and initiatives:
- Pakistan Shifting to Solar Energy. The country is preparing for a significant milestone: according to government statements, by 2026, electricity generated from rooftop solar panels will exceed daytime consumption in several large industrial zones. This will mark the first such occurrence in Pakistan's history. The active development of solar generation is part of a strategy to reduce dependence on expensive imported fuels. The installation of photovoltaic modules on factory and enterprise roofs is subsidized by the government and attracts foreign investors. The excess daytime generation is expected to charge energy storage systems and feed into the grid, thereby improving electricity supply during evening peak loads.
- New Offshore Wind Project in Europe. The Ocean Winds consortium (a joint venture of Portugal's EDP and France's Engie) has won rights to build a large floating wind farm in the Celtic Sea (off the southwest coast of the UK). The planned capacity is several hundred MW, which will provide "green" electricity to hundreds of thousands of households. The project highlights the growing interest in floating turbines that can be installed in deep waters, utilizing new sea areas. The UK and EU countries are actively conducting tenders for offshore wind farms, aiming to meet renewable energy share goals in their energy balance.
- Investments in Grid Infrastructure. German conglomerate Siemens Energy has announced plans to invest €2.1 billion (approximately $2.3 billion) in building facilities to produce equipment for electrical grids by 2028. The projects will span several countries and are aimed at eliminating "bottlenecks" in the electricity network, which requires modernization to integrate renewable sources. Amid the ongoing crisis in the wind energy sector, Siemens Energy is betting on a more stable business – electricity transmission and distribution. Expanding production capabilities for transformers, switching equipment, and power electronics is supported by EU governments, as improving electrical networks is deemed critical for the success of the energy transition.
- Corporations Purchasing "Green" Energy. The trend of signing direct agreements for renewable energy supply between energy companies and large businesses continues. For instance, French TotalEnergies has signed an agreement with Google to supply power to Google's data centers in Ohio (USA) from new solar and wind power plants. The deal is structured for the long term and will allow the tech giant to approach its goal of using 100% renewable energy while ensuring the energy company can sell the capacity of its renewable projects. Such corporate PPAs (Power Purchase Agreements) are becoming a significant component of the market, promoting the construction of new renewable energy facilities globally.
Corporate News and Investments in the FEC
Several significant events have occurred within the corporate segment of the fuel and energy complex, reflecting the restructuring of the industry under new realities:
- ExxonMobil Pauses Hydrogen Project. American oil and gas giant ExxonMobil has hit the brakes on one of its most ambitious projects for producing "blue" hydrogen. The planned large hydrogen plant (likely in Texas) has been postponed due to insufficient demand from potential customers. According to Exxon’s CEO Darren W. Woods, clients are not prepared to purchase large volumes of hydrogen at economically viable prices. This situation reflects a broader trend: the transition of traditional oil and gas companies to low-carbon technologies is progressing more slowly than expected, as many of these projects currently yield no quick profits. Analysts note that ExxonMobil and other majors are reassessing the timelines for achieving their emission reduction goals, focusing more on profitable segments – oil and gas extraction – given the current pricing environment.
- Mining Giant Sets its Sights on Copper. In the realm of major commodity mergers, a new potential consolidation process is emerging. Australian company BHP Group has made a renewed offer for the acquisition of British Anglo American. Anglo recently agreed to merge with Canadian Teck Resources to focus on copper mining – a metal highly demanded during the energy transition (for electric vehicles, cables, and renewable energy). Now BHP, already a leading player in copper, seeks to create an unprecedentedly large copper mining company capable of dominating the market. Anglo American’s management is refraining from comment thus far, and details of the discussions remain undisclosed. If the deal proceeds, it will redistribute power within the mining industry and give BHP control over strategic copper reserves in South Africa, South America, and other regions.
- U.S. Invests $100 Billion in Critical Resources. The U.S. Export-Import Bank (US EXIM) has announced an unprecedented funding program aimed at ensuring resilient supplies of critical raw materials for the U.S. and its allies. This involves allocating up to $100 billion for projects related to the extraction and processing of rare earth metals, lithium, nickel, uranium, as well as developing LNG production capabilities and components for nuclear energy. The first package of deals has already been formed: it includes insurance for $4 billion for U.S. LNG exports to Egypt and a $1.25 billion loan for the development of a large copper-gold deposit in Reko Diq, Pakistan. The EXIM initiative aligns with the U.S. government's policy of strengthening "energy dominance" and reducing dependence on China for supplies of raw materials for high-tech and energy sectors. With Congress approving the bank’s funding, the U.S. is expected to actively engage in raw materials projects globally in the coming years.
- Hungary’s Nuclear Project Gets a Exemption. In the context of sanctions policy, a noteworthy development has emerged from Europe: the U.S. Department of the Treasury has issued special licenses allowing certain companies to conduct transactions related to the construction project of the new nuclear power plant "Paks-2" in Hungary. This project involves the participation of the Russian state corporation "Rosatom," and earlier sanctions raised uncertainty about its financing. Now, an exemption has been made, likely at Budapest's request, to support the energy security of a NATO ally. The license pertains to transactions related to non-nuclear aspects of the construction and reflects a pragmatic approach – the sanctions regime remains strict, but tailored relaxations are possible if they serve the interests of energy stability among European partners.
COP30 Climate Summit: A Compromise Without Abandoning Oil and Gas
The 30th UN Climate Change Conference (COP30) concluded in the Brazilian city of Belém, and the final agreements reflect the complexity of international negotiations in the energy sector. The final document of the summit was adopted with significant difficulty and represents a compromise between a group of developed countries insisting on more decisive action and a bloc of fuel-exporting nations and developing economies:
Financial Support for Vulnerable Countries. One of the main achievements of COP30 was the commitment to triple climate financing for developing countries by 2035. Wealthy nations are willing to increase aid for climate adaptation projects – building protective infrastructure, transitioning to renewable energy, and combating desertification and flooding. This was a fundamental demand from Global South countries, which highlighted their disproportionate vulnerability to climate risks. The European Union, despite initially criticizing the proposed framework as "not ambitious enough," ultimately did not block its adoption precisely to initiate a mechanism to support the poorest nations. According to one EU negotiator, the agreement is "not perfect, but it will direct much-needed funding to the most vulnerable."
Lack of Consensus on Fossil Fuels. The most contentious issue during negotiations was the fate of oil, gas, and coal. The initial draft of the resolutions attempted to include plans for a "gradual phase-out of fossil fuels," but the final text lacks such wording. Countries forming the so-called "Arab Group," and several other oil and gas producers, firmly opposed any mention of a direct reduction in fossil fuel use. They emphasized that it is more important for them to discuss carbon capture technologies and "clean" use of oil and gas rather than winding down production. As a result of the compromise, the topic of the energy transition is outlined in general terms, without quantitative commitments to reducing the share of oil and coal. This concession has disappointed a number of Latin American countries (Colombia, Uruguay, Panama openly demanded harsher wording) and environmental organizations, but was deemed necessary for obtaining consensus.
Reaction and Prospects. The compromise agreement from COP30 has received mixed reviews. On one hand, it has preserved the multilateral climate process and ensured funding inflow into adaptation and "green" technology funds. On the other hand, the absence of specificity regarding the phase-out of hydrocarbons has been described by experts as a missed opportunity to accelerate the fulfillment of the Paris Agreement. UN Secretary-General António Guterres, who previously called for a "roadmap" for a phased exit from coal, oil, and gas, expressed cautious optimism, stating that dialogue continues and key decisions are still ahead. Meanwhile, the next conference location has already been determined: COP31 in 2026 will be hosted by Turkey. Ankara has reached an agreement with Australia to jointly organize the summit on Turkish territory. The world will be watching closely to see if the next meeting can make bolder strides towards decarbonizing the global economy.
Prepared for investors and market specialists in the FEC. Stay tuned for updates to keep informed of the latest developments in the oil, gas, and energy sectors worldwide.
