Key Economic Events and Corporate Reports on Wednesday, December 31, 2025: China’s PMI, US Data, Trading Environment on Global Exchanges, and Investor Guidelines Amid Pre-New Year Calm.
Wednesday, December 31, is a day of reduced liquidity in global markets: some exchanges are closed due to the holidays, while others operate on reduced schedules. For investors from the CIS, this means a shift in focus from intraday trading to risk management and assessment of macroeconomic signals as the new year approaches. On such days, even standard economic events can cause disproportionate movements in specific instruments due to the thin market and wider spreads. The main events on the agenda will be China's PMI and US data, as well as the trading structure of Russian markets, where the Moscow Exchange is closed, but trading continues on the St. Petersburg Exchange.
Trading Environment: Global Markets and CIS Exchanges
- Europe: some continental exchanges are closed; several markets may have a shortened trading day. On Euronext, December 31 is designated as a half trading day for a number of markets within the group.
- Asia: a significant portion of regional markets enters holiday mode; liquidity is typically below the average levels for the end of the month.
- Russia: The Moscow Exchange will not conduct trading on December 31. For CIS investors who need to maintain access to operations, the key platform remains the St. Petersburg Exchange, where trading continues.
- USA: the stock market operates normally, while the bond market closes earlier than the standard time.
The practical conclusion for investors: as the closing of European and American sessions approaches, volatility may "jump" on specific news, but confirming the sustainability of movements will be challenging due to low volumes. The priority is to maintain discipline concerning limits, select high-liquidity instruments, and check the clearing and settlement schedule with the broker.
China: Services PMI and Composite PMI (04:30 MSK)
Early in the morning, China’s indicators of business activity in the services sector and the composite PMI for December will be released. For global markets, this is a quick gauge of whether domestic demand momentum persists and how sustainably the services sector is recovering. For commodity assets and currencies of emerging markets, China's PMI is traditionally significant: strong readings support expectations for demand for industrial metals and energy resources, while weak readings heighten caution and increase the risk premium.
- How to read the release: a level above 50 typically indicates expansion, while below 50 indicates contraction in activity.
- Key components to monitor: new orders, employment, and prices (inflation signals within supply chains).
- Market reaction: with thin liquidity, sharp movements in commodity futures and currency pairs are likely, but trend confirmation may only come after the US opens.
USA: Initial Jobless Claims (16:30 MSK)
During the day, the focus will shift to US data — initial jobless claims. This metric is important as a timely indicator of labor market conditions and the “temperature” of the economy. For investors, it is part of the puzzle: the state of the labor market influences consumption trajectories, corporate profits, and interest rate expectations.
- Positive scenario: a moderate level of claims without sharp spikes is a signal of employment stability.
- Negative scenario: a noticeable increase in claims may heighten defensive sentiment and demand for quality (short-term bonds, dollar instruments, low-volatility sectors).
- Tactics: during the pre-New Year session, the reaction may be disproportionate; when trading through the St. Petersburg Exchange, it is wise to define entry/exit levels in advance and use limit orders.
USA: Chicago PMI (Estimate 17:45 MSK)
Another indicator from the US is the Chicago PMI for December. It helps assess the state of manufacturing activity and business expectations in the industrial region. Combined with jobless claims, this indicator forms a “quick” macro set that market participants use for fine-tuning expectations at the beginning of January.
- Volatility factor: if the release comes out in a thin market, movements in index futures and the dollar may be sharp but short-lived.
- Interpretation: an increase in the indicator strengthens the arguments for sustained business activity; a weak reading raises the risk of a “soft landing.”
Corporate Reports: Global Agenda for December 31
In terms of corporate reports, the day is generally “quiet” for the largest issuers: companies from the S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, and major Russian public companies do not concentrate releases on December 31. The main publications of financial results fall in the working weeks of January-February when the market returns to normal liquidity.
However, in the US, reports from certain small-cap issuers are scheduled. While they are not systemic for the broader market, they may represent specific interest for risk-oriented strategies:
- Coffee Holding (JVA): attention to margin dynamics amid commodity prices, working capital, and inventory.
- Maison Solutions (MSS): comparable sales, cost inflation, and network efficiency (operating margin) are of interest.
- 1933 Industries (TGIFF/TGIF): key aspects include cash flow, debt burden, and revenue stability in the regulated sector.
- Formation Minerals (FOMI): for investors, the structure of assets, funding sources, and any signs of moving toward sustainable earnings are important.
- 4Less Group (FLES): micro-cap with heightened liquidity risks; priority is assessing corporate events and transparency of financial reporting.
For investors from the CIS, the practical recommendation is straightforward: consider such reports only with an understanding of the specifics of illiquid stocks and with a pre-set risk limit in place. The risk of “slippage” and price gaps is significantly higher in pre-New Year trading.
Assets and Themes of the Day: Currencies, Rates, Commodities
In conditions of reduced trading on some platforms, the market often shifts to “big” macro narratives. Thus, China’s PMI and US data will set the tone for the dollar, yields, and commodity assets. Three practical observations are crucial for investor portfolios:
- Currencies: in the event of surprises in US data, the dollar may react the fastest, especially against currencies with low liquidity during the holidays.
- Rates: the early closing of the bond market in the US heightens the effect of thin liquidity — movements can be “jerky.”
- Commodities: weaker-than-expected PMI from China often puts pressure on cyclical assets, while stronger-than-expected supports risk appetite and demand for commodity stories.
Risk Management in Pre-New Year Trading
For both retail and professional investors, the key task of the day becomes protecting against ineffective execution and “accidental” volatility. In pre-New Year trading, it is logical to:
- use limit orders instead of market orders;
- reduce position sizes in instruments with weak depth;
- avoid “impulse” trades immediately after data releases — wait for stabilization of prices;
- consider the specifics of clearing and settlements, especially when trading through the St. Petersburg Exchange and foreign instruments;
- maintain focus on portfolio objectives: the end of the year is not the best time to aggressively increase risk without a clear plan.
What Investors Should Pay Attention To
December 31 is a day when global markets largely operate on holiday schedules, meaning the cost of errors increases. Investors remain focused on economic events — China’s PMI in the morning and the block of US data in the afternoon. On the corporate reports side, no significant releases from the largest companies are expected; meanwhile, activity centers around specific small issuers in the US, where liquidity risk and volatility are above average.
The practical focus for CIS investors includes: (1) setting scenarios for reaction to macro data in advance, (2) employing conservative execution and limit orders, (3) avoiding overloading the portfolio with risk in a thin market, and (4) preparing a watchlist for January when liquidity returns and a complete agenda for the new year begins.
