Current News in Oil, Gas, and Energy as of December 12, 2025: Geopolitical Initiatives, Oil and Gas Price Balance, Global LNG Growth, Russia's Pivot to the East, Energy Transition, and Industry Forecasts – An Analytical Review for Investors and Energy Sector Participants.
The focus is on the first signals of a possible easing in the sanctions standoff surrounding Russian energy, the stabilization of oil and gas quotes against the backdrop of cautious OPEC+ policies and comfortable fuel reserves, as well as recent developments in the global energy sector. This overview is geared towards investors and participants in the fuel and energy complex, oil and gas, fuel, and energy companies, and all those monitoring the dynamics of oil, gas, electricity, and commodity markets.
Global Oil Market: Supply Surplus Holds Prices Back
World oil prices at the end of the year are maintaining a relatively stable level: Brent around $60 per barrel, WTI around $58. Recent expectations of a softening policy from the US Federal Reserve gave prices a slight boost, but overall, oil has decreased by about 15% since the beginning of 2025 due to the threat of excess supply amid moderate demand growth.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) are adhering to a cautious strategy for managing production. At the December meeting, the alliance extended existing quotas at least until the end of the first quarter of 2026. OPEC+ continues to keep a significant portion of capacity in reserve—around 3 million barrels per day—to prevent a price collapse. With Brent around $60, cartel representatives emphasize the priority of market stabilization over the immediate desire to boost exports, considering the weakening demand in the future.
Several key factors influence price dynamics:
- Demand. Global oil consumption is growing much more slowly than in previous years. The increase in 2025 is estimated to be less than 1 million barrels per day (compared to ~2.5 million in 2023). Economic downturns, energy conservation following a period of high prices, and a slowdown in industry in China are limiting demand growth.
- Supply. OPEC+ countries increased production in the first half of the year as restrictions eased; however, the threat of market oversaturation is now restraining plans for further increases. The decision to maintain production cuts at the beginning of 2026 signals the coalition's readiness to prevent a surplus: if necessary, participants will promptly adjust exports if prices decline.
- Geopolitics. The war in Ukraine and sanctions against several oil-producing countries (Russia, Iran, Venezuela) restrict supply and support prices. However, no new serious upheavals are currently observed; on the contrary, the first diplomatic initiatives are emerging to resolve the conflict, which reduces the risk premium. As a result, the oil market remains in a relatively narrow price corridor without sharp fluctuations.
Global Gas and LNG Market: Stability in Europe, Increasing Supply
The market environment for gas at the end of 2025 is comparatively calm, unlike the frenzy of two years ago. The European Union enters winter without signs of gas shortages: EU underground storage facilities are over 70% full, significantly above the December average. Gas prices in Europe (TTF hub) are hovering around €30 per MWh, which is an order of magnitude lower than the peaks of 2022. The falling volumes of Russian gas are almost completely compensated by record LNG imports from alternative sources—terminals are actively receiving fuel from the USA, Qatar, Norway, and other countries.
Global LNG supply continues to grow with the commissioning of new capacities. Large export terminals, like Golden Pass in the Gulf of Mexico, are set to come online in the USA, solidifying America's position as a leading supplier. Qatar, as part of the North Field expansion, plans to increase LNG output to 126 million tons per year by 2027, having contracted significant volumes with buyers in Europe and Asia. New projects are also starting up in other regions (Australia, Africa), increasing competition in the liquefied gas market.
At the same time, gas demand is growing at a moderate pace. In Asia, some importers are even redirecting excess purchased batches to the spot market due to temporarily weak consumption. In aggregate, the expansion of supply and restrained demand keeps global gas prices at relatively low levels. However, weather remains a critical factor: in the event of abnormal cold weather or supply disruptions in winter, temporary price spikes may occur, although the baseline scenario suggests price stability.
Geopolitics and Sanctions: The West's Tough Stance and Search for Compromise
The standoff between Russia and the West over energy resources continues, although attempts at dialogue have emerged by the end of the year. G7 and EU countries maintain a tough sanctions line: an embargo on Russian oil is in place, oil product exports are restricted, a price ceiling has been established, and financial sanctions complicate trade in energy resources from Russia. Furthermore, new restrictions are under discussion at the beginning of 2026—partners intend to eliminate the remaining loopholes and are prepared to tighten pressure if the military conflict continues.
Concurrently, the European Union is taking steps towards complete energy independence from Russia. On December 10, EU ambassadors approved a plan to legally cease reliance on Russian energy carriers by the end of 2027—ending natural gas purchases (including LNG) and crude oil along with petroleum products. This step is being called the "beginning of a new era," which will forever free European energy from dependence on Russian fuel, solidifying the break with Russia at a legislative level and stimulating the development of alternative sources—from increased LNG imports to an accelerated rollout of renewable energy. Moscow has reacted critically to the EU's strategy, warning that replacing cheap Russian gas with more expensive imports will cost Europe a rise in expenses. Nevertheless, Brussels demonstrates determination to pay this price for a geopolitical objective.
The USA, according to media reports, has suggested a plan to gradually reintegrate Russia into the world economy after a peaceful settlement— including lifting sanctions and resuming the export of Russian energy carriers to Europe. However, the EU approaches such initiatives cautiously and rules out softening its stance without real progress in resolving the Ukrainian crisis.
Russia Redirects Towards Asian Markets
Facing the loss of Western markets, Russia is increasing energy exports to Asia. China has become a key buyer: at the end of August, the first batch of liquefied gas was sent to China from the new "Arctic LNG-2" plant. In the fall, Russian LNG supplies to China grew at double-digit rates—Beijing actively increases fuel purchases at a 30–40% discount, ignoring Western sanctions pressure. The energy partnership between Moscow and Beijing is strengthening, providing Russia with an alternative market for sales and cheap raw materials for China's economy.
India also remains one of the largest purchasers of Russian hydrocarbons. After the introduction of the European oil embargo, Indian refineries significantly increased imports of Russian Urals oil and other grades at reduced prices. Russian leadership has assured partners of the readiness to provide India with stable volumes of oil and petroleum products. Cheap resources from Russia help meet India’s rapidly growing demand and keep internal fuel prices in check, though New Delhi tries to avoid critical dependence on a single supplier.
To consolidate the eastern pivot, Russia is developing export infrastructure. A project for a new gas pipeline, "Power of Siberia – 2," through Mongolia to China is under discussion, which could significantly increase gas supplies to Asia in the future. At the same time, Russia is creating its own tanker fleet for oil deliveries to markets in India, China, and Southeast Asia, reducing dependence on Western carriers and insurance services. These steps are aimed at making the long-term shift of energy flows to the East irreversible and decreasing Russia's reliance on the European market.
Kazakhstan: Transit Risks and New Routes
The military conflict in Ukraine also affects energy resource export routes. In early December, a drone strike damaged the Caspian Pipeline Consortium’s (CPC) maritime terminal near Novorossiysk. While shipments of Kazakh oil have not completely stopped, Astana has decided to expedite diversification. The Kazakhstan government announced the redirection of part of the oil from the Kashagan field to China and is considering increasing deliveries through Caspian ports to reduce dependence on the route through Russia.
To strengthen energy security, Kazakhstan also plans to build a new oil refinery with foreign capital involvement. Expanding internal production capacity for petroleum products will allow the country to reduce fuel imports and enhance the resilience of the oil and gas sector against external shocks.
Renewable Energy and Climate: Progress and Temporary Setbacks
The global energy transition continues to accelerate, although international climate agreements are stalling. At the UN COP30 conference (November 2025, Belém, Brazil), a rigid plan to phase out fossil fuels was not accepted—several significant oil and gas exporters blocked EU initiatives to stipulate specific deadlines for gradually ceasing production. The final agreement turned out to be a compromise, shifting the focus to funding adaptation to climate change and general emission reduction goals without clear deadlines for phasing out oil, gas, and coal.
Despite the lack of clear commitments, leading economies continue to increase investments in green energy. The year 2025 has set records for the commissioning of new solar and wind power plants in many countries. China, India, the USA, the European Union, and others are actively investing in renewable energy sources (RES), storage systems, and hydrogen technologies in a bid to reduce reliance on hydrocarbons.
In the short term, however, there have been setbacks in the decarbonization effort. High prices for natural gas in 2025 forced several countries to increase coal combustion for electricity generation to get through the heating season—global demand for coal remains high. Experts consider this step a temporary measure. As the share of RES increases and energy storage technologies improve, coal consumption and other fossil resources are expected to resume their decline. Thus, the long-term trend towards a shift to clean energy remains, albeit with some delays along the way.
Forecasts: Early 2026
Analysts expect that in the first quarter of 2026, oil prices will face mild downward pressure due to high inventories and supply exceeding demand growth. In the absence of new shocks, the average Brent price may drop to the range of $55–60 per barrel. At the same time, geopolitical factors could sharply alter the price landscape: an escalation of the conflict in Ukraine, the introduction of new sanctions, and crises in key oil-producing regions (Middle East, Latin America) could trigger significant price fluctuations.
For the gas market, weather remains a decisive factor. If winter in the Northern Hemisphere is mild and fuel stocks are sufficient, European gas prices will remain at low levels. However, several weeks of anomalous cold could quickly deplete underground storage facilities and lead to price spikes. Furthermore, competition between Europe and Asia for LNG may intensify if economic growth in Asian countries exceeds expectations.
Participants in the fuel and energy sector in 2026 will need to adapt to new conditions. Diversification of supplies, improving energy efficiency, and implementing innovations (including the development of RES and carbon capture technologies) will become key to business sustainability. The outgoing year 2025 clearly demonstrated the close interconnection between the economy, politics, and ecology in shaping prices for oil, gas, and electricity. In 2026, this interconnection is likely to strengthen: the global market will balance between excess supply and the risks of shortage, while the global community and authorities will strive to reconcile energy security objectives with climate goals.
