Global Oil, Gas, and Energy Market: Oil, Gas, Electricity, and RES - News for the Energy Sector January 4, 2026

News from the Oil and Gas and Energy Sector – Sunday, January 4, 2026: OPEC+ Maintains Production Policy; Sanction Pressures Intensify; Gas Market Stability; Acceleration of Energy Transition

Current events in the fuel and energy complex (FEC) as of January 4, 2026, attract investors' attention with a combination of market stability and geopolitical tension. At the center of focus is the meeting of key OPEC+ countries, where a decision was made to maintain existing production quotas. This means that the global oil market continues to face an oversupply, keeping Brent prices around $60 per barrel (nearly 20% lower than a year ago, following the largest drop since 2020). The European gas market demonstrates relative resilience: even in the height of winter, gas volumes in EU underground storage remain above historical averages, which, along with record LNG imports, keeps gas prices at moderate levels. Simultaneously, the global energy transition is gaining momentum – many countries are setting new records for generation from renewable sources and increasing investments in clean energy. However, geopolitical factors continue to introduce uncertainty: the sanctions standoff concerning energy exports not only persists but intensifies, leading to localized supply disruptions and altering trade routes. Below is a detailed overview of the key news and trends in the oil, gas, electricity, and raw materials sectors on this date.

Oil Market: OPEC+ Decisions and Price Pressure

OPEC+ Policy: At its first meeting of 2026, the OPEC+ group decided to leave production unchanged, fulfilling its promise to pause quota increases for Q1. In 2025, the alliance already increased combined output by nearly 2.9 million barrels per day (about 3% of global demand), but the recent sharp drop in prices has forced countries to act cautiously. Maintaining restrictions is aimed at preventing further price declines, although opportunities for price increases remain limited – the global market remains well supplied with oil.
Oversupply: Analysts predict that in 2026, oil supply will exceed demand by approximately 3–4 million barrels per day. High production volumes in OPEC+ countries, along with record output in the USA, Brazil, and Canada, have led to significant oil stockpiles. Storage facilities on land are full, and the tanker fleet is transporting record volumes of oil, signaling market saturation. This exerts downward pressure on prices, with Brent and WTI prices stabilizing in a narrow range around $60.
Demand Market Factors: The global economy shows moderate growth, supporting global oil demand. A slight increase in consumption is expected – mainly driven by Asia and the Middle East, where industry and transport are expanding. However, a slowdown in Europe and a strict monetary policy in the US are restraining demand growth. In China, the government strategy to fill reserves smoothed price fluctuations last year: Beijing actively purchased cheaper oil for strategic reserves, establishing a sort of price "floor". In 2026, China has limited room for further reserve accumulation, making its import policy a decisive factor for the oil market.
Geopolitics and Prices: The key uncertainty for the oil market remains geopolitics. The prospects for a peaceful resolution of the conflict in Ukraine are still unclear; consequently, sanctions against Russian oil exports continue to be in effect. Should progress occur throughout the year and sanctions be lifted, the return of significant Russian volumes to the market could intensify oversupply and exert additional downward pressure on prices. For now, maintaining restrictions supports a certain balance, preventing prices from falling too low.

Gas Market: Stable Supply and Price Comfort

European Stocks: EU countries entered 2026 with high gas reserves. By early January, underground storage in Europe was over 60% full, not far from record levels a year ago. Thanks to a mild start to winter and energy-saving measures, gas extraction from storage is proceeding at moderate rates. This creates a solid buffer for the remaining cold months and calms the market: exchange prices for gas are holding in the range of ~$9–10 per million BTU (about €28–30 per MWh according to the TTF index), significantly lower than the peaks during the 2022 crisis.
LNG Imports: To compensate for reduced pipeline supplies from Russia (by the end of 2025, Russian gas exports via pipelines to Europe had fallen by over 40%), European countries increased liquefied natural gas purchases. In 2025, LNG imports to the EU increased by about 25%, mainly due to supply from the USA and Qatar, as well as the commissioning of new terminals. The steady influx of LNG has helped smooth the effects of reduced Russian gas and diversifies supply sources, enhancing Europe's energy security.
Asian Factor: Despite Europe's focus on LNG, the balance of the global gas market also depends on demand in Asia. Last year, China and India increased gas imports to support industry and energy generation. At the same time, trade frictions led China to reduce purchases of American LNG (additional tariffs on energy supplies from the USA were imposed), reallocating some demand towards other suppliers. If Asian economies accelerate in 2026, competition between Europe and Asia for LNG parcels may increase, pushing prices up. However, at present, the situation is balanced, and under normal weather conditions, experts expect relative stability in the gas market to be maintained.
Future Strategy: The European Union aims to consolidate the progress made in reducing dependence on Russian gas. The official goal is to completely cease gas imports from Russia by 2028, which involves further expanding LNG infrastructure, developing alternative pipeline routes, and increasing domestic production/replacement. At the same time, governments are discussing extending target regulations for storage fill levels for the coming years (minimum 90% by October 1). These measures are intended to ensure resilience in the case of cold winters and market volatility in the future.

International Politics: Intensification of Sanctions and New Risks

Escalation in Venezuela: At the beginning of the year, a notable event occurred: the USA undertook a forceful action against the leadership of Venezuela. American special forces captured President Nicolás Maduro, accused by Washington of drug trafficking and power usurpation. Simultaneously, the USA tightened oil sanctions: in December, a naval blockade of Venezuela was announced, and several tanker shipments of Venezuelan oil were intercepted and confiscated. These actions have already reduced oil exports from Venezuela – in December, they fell to approximately 0.5 million barrels per day (almost half of November's level). While production and refining in Venezuela continue to operate normally, the political crisis creates uncertainty for future supplies. The market is factoring in these risks: although Venezuela's share in global exports is small, the tough stance of the USA signals to all importers about potential consequences of circumventing sanction restrictions.
Russian Energy Resources: Dialogue between Moscow and the West regarding the revision of sanctions on Russian oil and gas has not yielded noticeable results. The USA and the EU are extending existing restrictions and price ceilings on raw materials from Russia, linking their easing to progress on Ukraine. Moreover, the American administration indicates that it is ready to take new measures: discussions are being held regarding additional sanctions against companies in China and India that assist in transporting or purchasing Russian oil in circumvention of established limits. In the market, these signals maintain an element of "risk premium," especially in the tanker segment, where the cost of freight and insurance for oil of dubious origin is rising.
Conflicts and Supply Security: Military and political conflicts continue to influence energy markets. Tensions persist in the Black Sea zone: reports of strikes on port infrastructure related to the confrontation between Russia and Ukraine surfaced during the holiday period. Thus far, this has not caused serious export disruptions, but the risk for transporting oil and grain through maritime corridors remains high. In the Middle East, contradictions between key OPEC players – Saudi Arabia and the UAE – have exacerbated due to the situation in Yemen, where Emirati-supported forces have conflicted with Saudi allies. Nevertheless, within OPEC, these disagreements have so far not hindered cooperation: historically, the cartel has sought to separate politics from the overarching goal of maintaining stability in the oil market.

Asia: Strategies of India and China Amid Challenges

India's Import Policy: Faced with tightening Western sanctions, India is forced to navigate between the demands of its allies and its own energy needs. New Delhi has not officially joined the sanctions against Moscow and continues to purchase significant volumes of Russian oil and coal under favorable terms. Russian raw material supplies account for over 20% of India's oil imports, and a sharp refusal to take them is considered impossible by the country. However, logistical and financial constraints have made their presence felt: by the end of 2025, Indian refineries slightly reduced purchases of raw materials from Russia. Traders estimate that in December, Russian oil supplies to India decreased to ~1.2 million barrels per day – the lowest level in the past couple of years (compared to a record ~1.8 million b/d a month earlier). Seeking to avoid a shortfall, Indian Oil, the largest oil refining corporation, has activated an option for additional oil supplies from Colombia, while contracts with Middle Eastern and African suppliers are being explored. Simultaneously, India seeks preferences: Russian companies offer Urals oil at a discount of ~$4–5 to Brent prices, maintaining the competitiveness of these barrels even under sanction pressure. In the long term, India is increasing its own production: state-run ONGC is developing deep-water fields in the Andaman Sea, and early drilling results are promising. Despite these steps toward self-sufficiency, the country will remain heavily reliant on imports in the coming years (over 85% of consumed oil is sourced overseas).
China's Energy Security: The largest economy in Asia continues to balance between increasing domestic production and rising imports of energy resources. China, which has not joined the sanctions against Russia, has taken the opportunity to increase purchases of Russian oil and gas at reduced prices. By the end of 2025, China's oil import figures once again approached record levels, reaching about 11 million barrels per day (only slightly less than the peak in 2023). Gas imports – both liquefied and piped – also remain high, allowing for the fueling of industrial enterprises and heating during the economic recovery. Additionally, Beijing is annually increasing its own production: domestic oil output reached a historical maximum of ~215 million tons in 2025 (≈4.3 million b/d, +1% y/y), while natural gas production exceeded 175 billion cubic meters (+5-6% year-on-year). Although the growth of domestic production helps cover some demand, China still imports about 70% of its consumed oil and ~40% of gas. In a bid to enhance energy security, the Chinese government is investing in the exploration of new fields, technologies for increasing oil recovery, and expanding storage capacities for strategic reserves. In the coming years, Beijing will continue to build significant oil reserves, creating a "safety cushion" for potential market upheavals. Thus, India and China – the two largest consumers in Asia – are flexibly adapting to the new conjuncture by combining import diversification with the development of their resource base.

Energy Transition: Renewable Energy Records and the Role of Traditional Generation

Growth of Renewable Generation: The global transition to clean energy continues to accelerate. By the end of 2025, many countries recorded historical highs in electricity generation from renewable sources. In the European Union, combined generation from solar and wind power plants surpassed production from coal and gas power plants for the first time. In the USA, the share of renewable energy in electricity production exceeded 30%, while the overall volume of energy obtained from solar and wind sources outstripped that produced by coal power plants for the first time. China, maintaining its position as the global leader in installed renewable energy capacity, introduced tens of gigawatts of new solar panels and wind generators last year, breaking its own records for "green" energy. According to the International Energy Agency, total investments in the global energy sector exceeded $3 trillion in 2025, with more than half of this amount directed towards renewable projects, grid modernization, and energy storage systems.
Integration Challenges: The impressive growth of renewable energy brings new challenges alongside its advantages. The primary issue is ensuring the stability of energy systems with a growing share of variable sources. In 2025, many countries faced the necessity to balance increased generation from solar and wind with reserves from traditional generation. In Europe and the USA, gas power plants continue to play a key role as flexible power sources that cover peak loads or offset the decline in renewable energy output during adverse weather conditions. China and India, despite the massive construction of renewable energy sources, continue to introduce modern coal and gas plants to meet rapidly growing electricity demand. Thus, the stage of energy transition is characterized by a paradox: on the one hand, new "green" records are being set, while on the other, traditional hydrocarbon sources remain necessary for the reliable functioning of energy systems during the transitional period.
Policies and Goals: Governments worldwide are ramping up incentives for "green" energy – tax breaks, subsidies, and innovative programs aimed at accelerating decarbonization are being introduced. Major economies declare ambitious goals: the EU and the UK aim for carbon neutrality by 2050, China by 2060, and India by 2070. However, achieving these goals requires not only investments in generation but also the development of energy storage and distribution infrastructure. In the coming years, breakthroughs are expected in the field of industrial storage: the cost of lithium-ion batteries is decreasing, and their mass production (especially in China) has grown by tens of percent per year. By 2030, global storage capacities could exceed 500 GWh, increasing system flexibility and allowing for even more renewable energy integration without the risk of disruptions.

Coal Sector: Steady Demand Amid Green Transition

Historical Maxima: Despite the focus on decarbonization, global coal consumption reached a new record in 2025. According to the IEA, it amounted to approximately 8.85 billion tons (+0.5% compared to 2024), driven by increased demand in the energy and industrial sectors of several countries. Particularly high coal use is maintained in the Asia-Pacific region: rapid economic growth, coupled with a lack of alternatives in some developing countries, sustains significant demand for coal fuel. China, the world's largest consumer and producer of coal, once again approached peak burning levels: annual output at Chinese mines exceeds 4 billion tons, covering almost all domestic needs. India has also increased its coal usage to provide about 70% of its electricity generation.
Market Dynamics: Following the price shocks of 2022, global energy coal prices stabilized in a narrower range. In 2025, coal prices fluctuated in equilibrium between supply and demand: on the one hand, high demand in Asia and seasonal fluctuations (such as increased consumption in hot summer months for air conditioning) supported prices, while on the other, increased exports from countries like Indonesia, Australia, South Africa, and Russia kept the market balanced. Many countries announce plans to gradually reduce coal use to achieve climate goals; however, significant reductions in coal's share are not anticipated on the horizon of the next 5–10 years. For billions of people worldwide, electricity from coal-fired power plants continues to provide basic energy supply stability, especially where renewable sources are yet to completely replace traditional generation.
Transition Prospects: Global coal demand is expected to start significantly declining only by the end of the decade, as larger renewable capacities, nuclear power, and gas generation are introduced. However, the transition will be uneven: in some years, local spikes in coal consumption may occur due to weather factors (such as droughts reducing hydroelectric generation or harsh winters). Governments need to balance energy security with environmental commitments. Many countries introduce carbon taxes and quota systems to encourage the phase-out of coal while simultaneously investing in retraining workers from the coal industry and diversifying the economies of coal-producing regions. Thus, the coal sector remains significant, even as the green transition gradually limits its long-term prospects.

Oil Refining and Oil Products: Diesel Shortage and New Restrictions

Diesel Shortage: At the end of 2025, a paradoxical situation emerged in the global oil products market: oil prices were decreasing while refining margins, especially for diesel fuel, significantly increased. In Europe, the profitability of diesel production rose by about 30% year-on-year. The reasons are structural and geopolitical. On the one hand, the EU's ban on importing oil products made from Russian oil has reduced the available supply of diesel and other light oil products in the European market. On the other hand, military actions have led to attacks on refineries: for instance, strikes on Ukrainian refineries and infrastructure constrained local fuel production. As a result, diesel supply in the region has become strained, and its prices remain elevated despite the overall cheapness of oil.
Limited Capacities: Globally, the oil refining sector faces a shortage of available capacities. In developed countries, major oil companies have closed or repurposed several refineries in recent years (including for environmental reasons), and new refining projects are not expected to start soon. This means that the oil products market remains structurally short on certain types of fuel. Investors and traders expect that high margins on diesel, jet fuel, and gasoline will persist, at least until new capacities come online or demand declines due to the transition to electric vehicles and other energy sources.
Impact of Sanctions and Regional Aspects: Sanction policies continue to affect the refining and trading of oil products. Venezuela's state company PDVSA, for example, has accumulated significant stockpiles of heavy oil residues (fuel oil) due to export restrictions: American sanctions have severely curtailed the ability to market this raw material. This is leading to a shortage of bunker fuel in regions that previously depended on Venezuelan supplies, forcing consumers to seek alternative suppliers. Conversely, other regions see opportunities: some Asian refineries are increasing utilization by processing discounted Russian oil and subsequently partially meeting demand in African and Latin American countries where fuel shortages are felt.

Russian Fuel Market: Continued Stabilization Measures

Export Restrictions: To prevent shortages in the domestic market, Russia is extending emergency measures introduced in the fall of 2025. The government has officially extended the complete ban on the export of motor gasoline and diesel fuel until February 28, 2026. This measure releases additional volumes of fuel for domestic consumption – estimated at between 200,000 to 300,000 tons per month, previously sent for export. This has improved supply at gas stations within the country during winter, while wholesale prices have significantly rolled back from peak levels seen in late summer.
Financial Support for the Sector: Authorities are maintaining a set of stimulating measures for refiners to ensure that sufficient volumes of fuel are directed to the domestic market. From January 1, excise taxes on gasoline and diesel have been increased (by 5.1%), raising the tax burden; however, oil companies continue to be compensated through a damping mechanism. The "damping" compensates part of the difference between high global prices and lower domestic prices, allowing refineries to avoid losses when selling fuel domestically. Thanks to subsidies and compensations, it makes economic sense for refineries to redirect products to domestic gas stations, maintaining stable prices for end consumers.
Monitoring and Operational Response: Relevant authorities (Ministry of Energy, Federal Antimonopoly Service, etc.) continue to monitor fuel supply situations across regions on a daily basis. Control over refinery operations and supply logistics has been intensified – authorities have declared their readiness to immediately deploy reserve supplies or introduce new restrictions if disruptions occur. A recent incident at one of the southern refineries (the Ilysky plant in the Krasnodar region was attacked by a drone, causing a fire) confirmed the effectiveness of this approach: the accident was quickly localized, and fuel shortages were avoided. As a result of this comprehensive set of measures, retail prices at gas stations remain under control: for the past year, their growth has only been a few percent, which is close to overall inflation. Ahead of the 2026 planting campaign, the government intends to continue acting proactively to prevent new price surges and ensure a steady supply of fuel to the economy.

Financial Markets and Indicators: Energy Sector Response

Stock Dynamics: Stock indices of oil and gas companies generally reflected the decline in oil prices at the end of 2025. In Middle Eastern exchanges reliant on oil, a correction was observed: for example, the Saudi Tadawul fell by about 1% in December, while the shares of major global oil and gas corporations (ExxonMobil, Chevron, Shell, etc.) showed slight declines amid falling profits in the upstream segment. However, in the early days of 2026, the situation stabilized: investors priced in the anticipated OPEC+ decision and perceived it as a factor of predictability, hence the sector’s stock quotations demonstrated a neutral-positive trend.
Monetary Policy: Actions by central banks indirectly impact the fuel and energy sector. In several developing countries, monetary policy easing has begun: for example, Egypt's Central Bank cut the key rate by 100 basis points in December after a period of high inflation. This supported the local stock market (+0.9% index for Egypt over the week) and might stimulate demand for energy resources within the country. Conversely, in major economies, rates remain high to tackle inflation, which somewhat dampens business activity and restrains fuel consumption growth but simultaneously prevents capital outflows from raw material markets.
Commodity Exporting Countries' Currencies: The currencies of energy resource-exporting countries have maintained relative stability despite the volatility in oil prices. The Russian ruble, Norwegian krone, Canadian dollar, and several currencies of Persian Gulf countries are bolstered by significant export revenues. At the end of 2025, against the backdrop of falling oil prices, these currencies weakened only slightly, as the budgets of many of these countries are balanced based on lower price levels. The presence of sovereign funds and currency pegs (as in Saudi Arabia) also mitigates fluctuations. For investors, this signals relative reliability: resource economies are entering 2026 without signs of a currency crisis, positively impacting the investment climate in the energy sector.