Global Steel Production Analysis for October 2025 According to WSA with a Focus on Russia: Decline in China, Growth in the USA, and the Impact of Current Trends on Investments in the Metallurgical Sector.
According to the World Steel Association, global steel production reached 143.3 million tonnes in October 2025, representing a 5.9% decrease from October 2024. Year-to-date (January–October), production volume fell by 2.1% compared to the same period last year. Production declines have been noted in Asia and Europe, while North America shows growth.
- China: 72.0 million tonnes (-12.1% YoY).
- India: 13.6 million tonnes (+5.9% YoY).
- USA: 7.0 million tonnes (+9.4% YoY).
- Japan: 6.9 million tonnes (-1.0% YoY).
- South Korea: 5.1 million tonnes (-5.8% YoY).
- Russia: 5.3 million tonnes (-6.2% YoY).
- Germany: 3.1 million tonnes (-3.0% YoY).
- Iran: 3.3 million tonnes (+12.0% YoY).
The data highlights a mixed trend: the largest producer, China, is experiencing a sharp decline, while the USA and Iran are reporting double-digit growth. India continues to grow, but the European market, led by Germany, remains in the negative.
WSA statistics cover 70 countries, which account for approximately 98% of global steel production.
The average capacity utilization ratio in the steel industry remains low, reflecting an oversupply amid weak demand. The situation is exacerbated by the overall slowdown in the global economy and investment demand.
China: Continued Production Decline
Steel production in China reached 72.0 million tonnes in October, marking a 12.1% year-on-year decline. This is the most significant monthly drop in several years. Contributing factors include weak demand for construction materials, tightened environmental regulations, and high production costs; many steel mills are operating with extremely low profitability. Despite government stimulus measures, steel output in China fell by approximately 3.9% in annual terms during the first ten months of 2025.
USA: Accelerated Production Increase
The United States achieved steel production of 7.0 million tonnes in October, reflecting a 9.4% increase from last year. The acceleration is attributed to a revival in domestic demand and multi-billion-dollar investments in infrastructure development. American steelmakers also report improved demand from the construction and automotive sectors. Consequently, steel output in the USA increased by approximately 3% over the first ten months of 2025.
India and Other Asian Markets: Slowing Growth Rates
India, the second-largest producer of steel globally, continues to expand output, but at moderate rates. In October, the production volume reached 13.6 million tonnes, up 5.9% year-on-year, but this marks a slowdown compared to the previous months. Weak domestic demand and restrictive export measures are hindering the expansion of the Indian steel industry. Other Asian countries show uneven results: Japan reduced its steel output by 1.0%, while South Korea saw a 5.8% decline. Overall, steel production in Asia and Oceania fell by more than 8% in October.
European Sector: Decline in Germany and Stagnation
The European steel market is under pressure: in October, steel output in EU countries decreased by approximately 3.5%. Germany, the largest producer in Europe, produced 3.1 million tonnes (–3.0% YoY). The German steel industry continues to suffer from weak domestic demand and declining export orders. Production declines are also observed in other industrial countries in the region, where the total production volume remains at a low level.
Middle East: Growth Driven by Iran
Amid global stagnation, Iran is showing rapid growth: its production volume in October reached 3.3 million tonnes, up 12.0% year-on-year. This is linked to a recovery in domestic demand and capacity expansions following the easing of international sanctions. Increased production in Iran and neighboring countries helps maintain total output levels despite declines in some other countries in the region.
Russia: Steady Production Decline
Russia produced 5.3 million tonnes of steel in October, representing a 6.2% decrease compared to October 2024. The rate of decline has accelerated compared to September (–3.8%). Under pressure from Western sanctions and declining external demand, which limit access to traditional markets, Russian steelmakers continue to reduce production and exports. Shares of major steel companies show attempts at consolidation after falling, but risks remain high.
Conclusions for Investors
WSA data indicate significant changes in the industry: the decline in China is holding back the global market, while production growth in the USA creates a favorable environment for American producers. These trends present new opportunities and risks. It is crucial for investors to consider regional diversification of investments and the high volatility of the steel sector.
- Accounting for uncertainty in the Chinese market is essential: the sharp decline in production could stimulate price fluctuations in both commodity and equity markets.
- The increase in production volumes in the USA makes American producers more attractive for investments in the steel sector.
- European and Russian steelmakers continue to face restraining factors, keeping their stocks in a zone of heightened uncertainty.
- Diversifying the investment portfolio across regions and companies in the metallurgical sector will help balance risks and capitalize on local growth trends.
- The oversupply in the steel market creates additional pressure on raw material prices (such as iron ore) and contributes to an accumulation of inventory, which needs to be factored into strategic planning.
