Global news in the oil, gas, and energy sectors for Monday, 2 February 2026: oil and gas, electricity, renewables, coal, refineries, key events in commodity and energy markets for investors and participants in the fuel and energy complex.
Global news in the fuel and energy sector for Monday, 2 February 2026, covers key events in the oil and gas industry and electricity generation. It examines trends in the oil and gas markets, the impact of geopolitics and sanctions, extreme winter weather conditions, the transition to renewable sources, the state of the coal market, and domestic measures to stabilize fuel prices. These events create a complex backdrop for investors and companies, reflecting the intricacies of the global energy market.
Oil Market: Winter Demand Supports Prices Amid Surplus Concerns
Global oil prices remain at relatively elevated levels due to a number of factors, although further increases are tempered by expectations of oversupply later in the year. The North Sea Brent blend holds steady around $64–66 per barrel, while U.S. WTI is at $60–62, having bounced back from five-month lows at the end of 2025. Prices remain below last year's peaks, and investors are exercising caution amid mixed signals regarding demand and supply.
- Seasonal Demand and Weather: The cold winter in the Northern Hemisphere is prompting increased demand for heating fuel. The rise in consumption of petroleum products, particularly diesel, supports oil prices, partially offsetting the slowdown in the global economy.
- Geopolitical Risks: Tensions in the Middle East are driving prices higher. The U.S. administration has resumed tough rhetoric towards Iran, raising the risk premium in oil prices due to supply disruption threats.
- Financial Factors: The weakening of the U.S. dollar has made commodities cheaper for holders of other currencies, stimulating investor interest in oil. Hedge funds have increased long positions, indicating a return of speculative optimism in the market.
- OPEC+ Policy: The oil alliance is maintaining a cautious approach to production. Voluntary restrictions by several participants have been extended until the end of the first quarter of 2026, preventing market oversupply. Maintaining quotas supports prices and prevents declines during the seasonally weaker demand period.
The combined effect of these factors keeps oil prices stable compared to recent lows. However, forecasts from the International Energy Agency warn that global oil inventories could begin to rise by millions of barrels per day in the second half of 2026 unless demand accelerates. The risk of oversupply limits the potential for further oil price increases, with markets pricing in cautious expectations for the coming months.
Gas Market: Europe Rapidly Consumes Stocks Amid Frosts
The global gas market is characterized by different trends across regions. In Europe, extreme cold has led to a surge in gas consumption and record withdrawals from storage, while North America is witnessing a localized price crisis and Asia remains relatively balanced for now.
- Europe: EU countries entered February with sharply reduced gas stocks. Underground storages are only filled to ~45% of capacity (down from ~55% a year ago) — a significant decline compared to the peaks of 2022. Nonetheless, active imports of liquefied natural gas and stable pipeline supplies from Norway and North Africa are keeping prices at relatively moderate levels. Prices at the TTF hub have stabilized around €40 per MWh after a surge in January — significantly lower than the peaks of 2022.
- USA: In North America, gas prices have risen significantly. In January, the Henry Hub site exceeded $5 per million BTUs, more than 50% higher than a year ago. The reasons include record LNG exports from the U.S. and anomalous frosts causing wells to freeze and production disruptions. The gas shortage in the domestic market has forced energy companies to temporarily switch to coal generation to prevent outages and control price increases for consumers.
- Asia: In major Asian economies (China, Japan, South Korea), gas prices remain relatively stable. A mild start to winter and long-term LNG contracts have shielded the region from fuel shortages. Moderate economic growth rates in China and India are restraining demand increases, so competition with Europe for spot LNG shipments remains low for now.
Weather conditions are already causing power supply disruptions: January storms resulted in widespread power outages in the U.S. and Northern Europe. In the coming weeks, the key factor will be the weather: persistent severe cold in February could complicate stock situations in Europe and lead to further price fluctuations in the global gas market.
International Politics: Sanction Pressures and Geopolitical Risks
Geopolitical factors continue to influence the energy sector. The collective West maintains a stringent sanctions regime against Russia. By the end of 2025, the European Union approved its 19th sanctions package, closing the last loopholes for circumventing the oil embargo, and as of 1 January 2026, imposed a complete ban on purchases of Russian pipeline gas, culminating Europe's rejection of Russian energy resources. The United States has expanded its own restrictions, imposing sanctions on major Russian oil companies and applying 25% tariffs on a range of Indian goods – a signal to New Delhi concerning the import of Russian oil. Russian oil and gas are now sold to only a limited number of countries — primarily China and India — at significant discounts.
At the same time, cautious signals for dialogue have emerged. According to insiders, the U.S. is discussing scenarios for gradual normalization of relations with Russia with allies in closed discussions, contingent on resolving the Ukrainian crisis. No easing of sanctions has occurred so far, but the mere fact of such consultations indicates a search for diplomatic solutions for the future. Additionally, Washington has indicated the possibility of lifting new tariffs against India after it reduced imports of Russian oil. These targeted steps have thus far made little difference to the situation, but markets positively respond to any hints of de-escalation. However, if peace negotiations stall, sanction pressures may intensify, creating long-term risks for the oil and gas sector.
Restructuring Energy Trade and New Alliances
Sanctions and shifting global political dynamics are forcing countries to reconfigure energy supply chains. New trade routes and partnerships are forming, altering the landscape of the global fuel and energy complex:
- Russia – China: Moscow is redirecting oil, gas, coal, and electricity exports eastward, increasing shipments to China to compensate for lost European markets.
- Europe and New Partners: The EU is diversifying its supplies: increasing gas imports from Norway and Algeria, oil from the Middle East and Africa, and stimulating procurement of petroleum products from India instead of Russian supplies. European refiners have already adapted their logistics to accommodate new raw materials, reducing dependence on the Russian Federation.
New agreements also encompass advanced technologies. Partners are investing in hydrogen energy, biofuels, and energy storage systems, laying the groundwork for the future resilience of global energy.
Renewable Energy and the Global Energy Transition
At the January IRENA assembly in Abu Dhabi, country leaders reaffirmed their commitment to accelerating the transition to renewable sources. Major oil and gas states are announcing large-scale investments in solar and wind power, while the EU is introducing new RES capacities under its REPowerEU program to replace gas and achieve climate goals.
Oil and gas corporations are also adapting to new realities. Some of the super profits from expensive hydrocarbons are being directed towards “green” projects — from offshore wind farms to the production of “green” hydrogen. Many companies are setting goals to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050 and are increasing their presence in the RES, biofuels, and energy storage segments to remain competitive in the future.
At the same time, the energy transition faces challenges. In some countries, a shift in political course (for instance, in the U.S.) temporarily weakens government support for clean energy, but the private sector continues to invest actively in RES. Therefore, the “green” trend remains a strategic direction, even if short-term fluctuations are possible due to political circumstances.
Coal Market: Demand Near Historical Highs
Global coal consumption reached record levels in 2025, mainly driven by Asian countries, where rising electricity demand and high gas prices have increased coal burning. The coal market remains tight, with prices staying high. However, as RES implementation accelerates, global demand is expected to plateau soon, followed by a decline. For now, coal remains an important source of base generation, particularly in developing economies.
Russian Oil Products Market: Price Stabilization Efforts by the State
By early 2026, retail prices for gasoline and diesel in Russia stabilized after a sharp rise the previous year, driven by tax changes and increased exports. The government intervened, temporarily restricting exports of oil products and providing subsidies to refineries to saturate the domestic market. These measures halted price growth.
Authorities express readiness to extend regulation to prevent a new fuel crisis. At the same time, a phased lifting of the gasoline export ban is under consideration to avoid storage oversaturation and excess supply at refineries. Thus, the balance of interests between fuel consumers and producers is maintained through manual methods — the government continues to play a crucial role in ensuring price stability in the domestic market.
