Global Oil, Gas and Energy Sector News for Sunday, January 11, 2026: Oil, Gas, Electricity, Renewable Energy, Coal, Sanctions, Global Energy Markets and Key Trends for Investors and Energy Companies.
The current developments in the fuel and energy sector on January 11, 2026, capture the attention of investors and market participants due to their scale and contradictory trends. Geopolitical tensions reach new heights: the United States intensifies sanctions in the energy sector, threatening to redistribute global oil and gas flows. At the same time, world oil and gas markets demonstrate relative resilience. Oil prices have stabilized at a moderate level following declines in 2025, reflecting a balance between oversupply and restrained demand. The European gas market navigates the height of winter without upheaval—record gas reserves and mild weather keep prices low, providing comfort to consumers. Meanwhile, the global energy transition accelerates: renewable energy sources set new generation records, although countries still rely on traditional hydrocarbons for the stability of their energy systems. In Russia, following a spike in fuel prices last autumn, authorities continue to implement measures to stabilize the domestic oil product market. Below is a detailed overview of key news and trends in the oil, gas, power generation and raw materials sectors as of this date.
Oil Market: Oversupply Keeps Prices at Moderate Levels
Global oil prices maintain relative stability at low levels, influenced by fundamental supply and demand factors. The North Sea Brent blend trades around $60–62 per barrel, while American WTI fluctuates between $55–59. Current quotes are about 20% lower than a year ago, reflecting a continued market correction in 2025 after the peaks of the 2022-2023 energy crisis. Concerns about overproduction are weighing on prices: OPEC+ countries increased production by almost 3 million barrels per day last year to regain market share, while global demand growth has slowed amid moderate economic growth and increased energy efficiency.
Market participants note that the alliance of major oil exporters is currently focusing on stability. In early January, eight key OPEC+ countries held a brief meeting and unanimously decided to maintain current production restrictions at least until the end of the first quarter of 2026. This decision is driven by seasonally low winter demand in the northern hemisphere and a desire to prevent new market oversaturation. Approval for the status quo on production was achieved despite political tensions within the cartel—preventing price declines remained a priority. As a result of these preventive measures, oil is held within a narrow price corridor, and volatility decreases. Nonetheless, investors and oil companies are closely monitoring geopolitical events that could affect oil supply, whether through sanctions or regional conflicts, although at present, fundamental factors weigh more heavily.
Gas Market: Europe Passes Winter Confidently, Prices Remain Low
The gas market focuses on Europe, which enters the New Year with a robust safety net. By the beginning of winter, EU countries pumped record amounts of gas into their underground storage facilities—storage was almost 100% full by the end of 2025. Even now, in the midst of the heating season, reserves remain significantly above the average levels of previous years, ensuring supply security. A further stability factor is the mild weather in Europe in December and early January, which has reduced the extraction of fuel from storages. Together with increasing supplies of liquefied natural gas (LNG), this keeps natural gas prices at moderate levels.
The benchmark TTF index at the beginning of January fluctuates around €25–30 per MWh, which is many times lower than the peak values during the energy crisis two years ago. For European industries and consumers, such price levels have provided significant relief: many energy-intensive enterprises have resumed production, and heating bills for the population have decreased compared to last winter. The market is prepared for possible weather surprises—short-term cold spells may temporarily increase demand and prices, but systemic fuel shortage risks are currently absent. Moreover, global gas consumption is expected to increase in 2026 (according to the IEA, global gas consumption could reach a new record), primarily driven by Asia. However, at present, LNG and pipeline gas supplies are sufficient to meet demand, and Europe’s strategy of diversifying suppliers and conserving energy resources is proving effective.
International Politics: U.S. Sanctions Pressure and Venezuela Crisis
Geopolitical factors continue to significantly influence sentiment in energy markets. In early 2026, the United States has increased sanctions pressure regarding Russian energy exports. President Donald Trump approved the promotion of a new law aimed at punishing countries that continue to purchase Russian oil and gas. This bipartisan bill proposes the imposition of extremely high tariffs—up to 500%—on imports into the U.S. from states that "consciously engage in trade" with Russia in energy resources. The goal is to deprive Moscow of revenues that Washington believes fuel the military conflict in Ukraine. The largest buyers of Russian oil, such as China and India, as well as several other Asian, African and Latin American countries, are affected. These measures have already complicated relations between the U.S. and key emerging economies: Beijing openly protests against external interference in its trade, stating that normal economic ties between China and Russia are legitimate and should not be politicized. India, for its part, tries to maneuver—it has indeed reduced the share of Russian oil in its purchases and is negotiating with Washington to soften previously imposed U.S. tariffs on Indian goods.
Another sensational event is the sudden turn in Venezuela, which could impact the global oil market. In the early days of January, it became known that the U.S. conducted a military operation, resulting in the Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro being detained by American troops. President Trump stated that Washington would take responsibility for assisting in the transitional governance of the country until a new government can be formed. This unprecedented action drew sharp international reactions: several countries, including China, condemned the violation of sovereignty and principles of international law. However, many investors in the oil and gas industry are now questioning whether the regime change in Caracas will lead to a gradual return of Venezuelan oil to the global market. Venezuela has the largest proven oil reserves in the world, but its production has plummeted over the last decade due to sanctions and management crises. Experts agree that even with political changes, immediate export growth is unlikely: the country's oil sector requires substantial investments and modernization. Nevertheless, the potential lifting of sanctions against Venezuela in the future could add significant volumes of heavy oil to the market, presenting a new variable for the balance of power within OPEC+. Thus, political uncertainty—from sanctions wars to government changes in oil-producing countries—remains the backdrop that energy market participants cannot overlook, but for now, its influence is offset by oversupply and coordinated actions among producers.
Asia: Balancing Imports and Domestic Production
Asian countries, key drivers of energy demand, are taking active steps to strengthen their energy security and meet the growing needs of their economies. The actions of India and China are particularly noteworthy, as they notably impact the global market:
- India: New Delhi strives to reduce dependence on hydrocarbon imports amid external pressure. Following the onset of the Ukraine crisis, India increased its purchases of cheap Russian oil, but in 2025, under the threat of Western trade restrictions, it somewhat reduced the share of Russia in its oil imports. Concurrently, the country is focusing on developing its domestic resources: in August 2025, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced the launch of a National Program for the Development of Deepwater Oil and Gas Fields. The aim is to open new offshore fields and increase production to meet surging internal demand, which is not covered by current production. Additionally, India is rapidly expanding its renewable energy capacity (solar and wind power plants) and liquefied natural gas infrastructure, aiming to diversify its energy mix. Nevertheless, oil and gas continue to form the backbone of its energy supply, necessary for industry and transportation, so India finds itself delicately balancing the benefits of importing cheap fuels with the risks of sanctions.
- China: The world's second-largest economy continues its drive toward energy self-sufficiency, combining increasing production of traditional resources with unprecedented investments in clean energy. In 2025, China raised its domestic production of coal and oil to record levels to meet demand and reduce import dependence. Simultaneously, the share of coal in the country's electricity generation has dipped to a multi-year low (~55%), as billions of dollars are invested in solar, wind and hydropower plants. Analysts indicate that China commissioned more renewable energy capacity in the first half of 2025 than the rest of the world combined, which has even led to a decrease in absolute fossil fuel consumption. However, in absolute terms, China's appetite for oil and gas remains enormous: imports of petroleum products, including those from Russia, continue to play a significant role in meeting needs, particularly in the transport and chemical sectors. Beijing is also actively securing long-term contracts for LNG supplies and developing nuclear energy. It is expected that in the upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030), China will set even more ambitious goals for increasing the share of non-carbon energy, while also reserving traditional capacities—authorities are not willing to risk energy deficits, mindful of the blackouts of the past decade. Thus, China is moving along two paths: implementing clean technologies of the future while reinforcing their foundations with reliable supplies of coal, oil, and gas in the present.
Energy Transition: Records in Green Energy and the Role of Traditional Generation
The global transition to clean energy reached new heights in 2025, confirming its irreversibility. Many countries reported record levels of electricity generation from renewable sources. According to international analytical centers, the combined production from wind and solar has for the first time surpassed the generation from all coal power plants combined. This historical milestone was reached due to a sharp rise in new capacity: just in the first half of 2025, global generation from solar power plants grew by almost 30% year-on-year, while wind generation increased by 7%. This was enough to cover the primary increase in global electricity demand and allowed for reduced fossil fuel use in several regions.
However, the energy transition is accompanied by challenges related to the reliability of power supply. When demand growth exceeds the commissioning of "green" capacities or when the weather is uncooperative (calm, drought, abnormal frosts), systems must make up the difference by relying on traditional generation. Thus, in 2025, the U.S., facing an economic rebound, increased generation from coal power plants, as renewable resources were insufficient to meet the entire consumption growth. In Europe, due to weak winds and hydrological resources in summer and autumn, gas and coal consumption partially rose to cover needs. These examples underscore the current importance of coal, gas, and nuclear power plants as a safety net against the intermittency of solar and wind. Energy companies worldwide are actively investing in energy storage systems, smart grids, and other technologies to smooth these fluctuations. Nevertheless, in the near term, the global energy balance will remain hybrid: rapid growth in renewable energy goes hand in hand with the continued significance of oil, gas, coal, and nuclear energy which ensure the stability of energy systems.
Coal: Strong Demand Persists Despite Climate Agenda
The coal market demonstrates how inertial global energy consumption can be. Despite the global push for decarbonization, coal usage remains at record-high levels. Preliminary data indicates that in 2025, global coal demand rose by another 0.5%, reaching around 8.85 billion tons—a historical maximum. The majority of the growth has come from Asian economies. In China, which consumes more than half of the world's coal, coal-based electricity production has decreased in relative terms (thanks to record renewable capacity additions), but remains colossal in absolute terms. Moreover, Beijing, concerned about potential energy shortages, approved the construction of new coal power plants in 2025 to prevent outages. India and Southeast Asia also continue to burn coal to meet growing energy demands, as alternatives do not always keep pace with economic growth.
Prices for thermal coal stabilized in 2025, following sharp fluctuations in previous years. In benchmark Asian markets (e.g., Australian Newcastle coal), prices have remained at levels significantly below the 2022 peak, but still above pre-crisis levels. This encourages mining companies to maintain high production levels. International experts predict that global coal consumption will plateau by the end of the decade and then decline as climate policies strengthen and new renewable capacities are brought online. However, in the short term, coal remains a critical part of the energy mix for many countries. It provides base generation and heat in industries, meaning demand for coal will stay robust until effective substitutes are implemented. Thus, the confrontation between environmental goals and economic realities continues to shape the coal sector's fate: the downward trend is evident, but the "swan song" of coal has yet to be sung.
Russian Oil Products Market: Price Stabilization Efforts by the Government
In the Russian domestic fuel segment, relative stabilization has recently been observed, achieved through unprecedented government measures. As early as August-September 2025, wholesale prices for gasoline and diesel on Russian exchanges hit record highs, exceeding even the crisis levels of 2023. This was due to a combination of high seasonal demand (summer transportation and harvest campaigns) and various limitations in fuel supply—including unscheduled repairs and accidents at several oil refining plants—which reduced output. To avoid shortages and protect consumers from price shocks, authorities swiftly intervened in market mechanisms and implemented an emergency plan to normalize the situation:
- Export Ban: In mid-August, the government imposed a complete ban on the export of gasoline and diesel, extending it to all producers—from independent refineries to the largest oil companies. This measure, extended until the end of September, returned hundreds of thousands of tons of fuel back to the domestic market, which had previously been exported monthly.
- Partial Resumption of Supplies: From October 2025, as the domestic market stabilized, restrictions began to be gradually eased. Large refineries were allowed to resume some export shipments under strict government control, while smaller traders faced significant export barriers. Thus, the export channel was opened selectively, to avoid triggering new price spikes within the country.
- Control of Fuel Distribution: One of the measures involved enhancing control over the movement of oil products within the country. Producers were obliged to prioritize fulfilling domestic consumers' orders and were prohibited from engaging in mutual fuel purchases on the exchange between companies (which had previously escalated prices). The government and relevant agencies (Ministry of Energy, FAS) developed mechanisms for direct contracts between refineries and gas station networks, bypassing exchange intermediaries to ensure that fuel reaches gas stations at fair prices.
- Market Subsidization: Financial instruments were also utilized to curtail prices. The state increased the volume of budget subsidies for oil refining enterprises and expanded the use of the damping mechanism (reverse excise tax), which compensates companies for lost revenue when selling fuel in the domestic market instead of exporting it. These payments incentivize oil companies to direct sufficient volumes of gasoline and diesel to domestic gas stations without fear of losses.
The complex of measures taken has already yielded results by early 2026. Wholesale fuel prices have retreated from peak levels, and retail prices at gas stations have only risen moderately (about 5–6% for the entire year of 2025, which is close to the inflation rate). Physical shortages of gasoline and diesel in the domestic market were avoided—gas stations across the country, including in rural areas during the autumn work period, are adequately supplied with fuel. The Russian government assures that it will maintain tight control over the situation: at the slightest signs of a new imbalance, fresh restrictions or interventions from government fuel reserves may be promptly implemented. For participants in the energy market, this policy means predictability in domestic prices, although exporters of oil products must contend with partial restrictions. Overall, the stabilization of the domestic fuel market strengthens confidence that even amid external challenges—sanctions and volatility in global prices—domestic gasoline and diesel prices can be kept within acceptable limits, protecting the interests of consumers and the economy.
