Current News in the Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector for Saturday, December 20, 2025: Oil, Gas, Electricity, Renewable Energy Sources (RES), Coal, Refining (REF) and Key Trends in the Global Energy Market.
As December comes to a close, significant changes are occurring in the global fuel and energy complex. Years of record-low energy prices, combined with geopolitical shifts, create a mixed environment that attracts the attention of investors and market participants. On one hand, oil is trading close to its lowest levels in years amid expectations of oversupply and positive signals regarding the peaceful resolution of the conflict in Eastern Europe. On the other hand, gas prices in Europe continue to decline even with the onset of winter due to a record influx of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Simultaneously, global coal demand reached a record peak in 2025 and is likely to begin a sustained decline as the energy transition accelerates.
Against this backdrop, governments and major companies in the sector are adapting their strategies. Some are making efforts to alleviate sanctions-related tensions and ensure fuel supply stability, while others are increasing investments in both the traditional oil and gas sector and green energy. Below is a detailed overview of the key events and trends in the oil, gas, electricity, and raw materials segments as of the current date.
Oil Market
The global oil market continues to feel pressure, with prices hovering near their lowest levels in recent years. The benchmark Brent crude is trading around $60 per barrel (occasionally dipping below this psychologically significant threshold), while American WTI is close to $55. These are the lowest levels seen since approximately 2020. Key factors influencing the decline in oil prices include:
- Expected Supply Surplus: Forecasts for 2026 indicate that global production may outstrip demand. Non-OPEC countries (primarily the U.S. and Brazil) have ramped up oil production to record volumes. At the same time, the growth rate of global oil demand is slowing — industry estimates suggest that oil consumption increased by about +0.7 million barrels per day in 2025 (compared to over +2 million bpd in 2023). This leads to inventory accumulation and puts downward pressure on prices.
- Hopes for a Ceasefire in Ukraine: Progress in negotiations between Moscow and Kyiv has generated expectations of partial sanctions relief and the return of some Russian oil exports to the market. The prospect of a peace agreement reinforces forecasts for increased supply, further dragging oil prices down.
- OPEC+ Policy: After several months of gradually increasing production quotas, the OPEC+ alliance has decided to suspend further increase in the first quarter of 2026. The cartel is showing caution in light of the risk of market oversaturation and expresses readiness to adjust production if necessary, although no unplanned actions have been officially announced yet.
Collectively, these factors have led to oil being significantly cheaper now than at the start of the year. There is a high likelihood that Brent and WTI will close 2025 at their lowest levels since mid-2020. The decline in raw material prices has already significantly impacted the petroleum products segment.
Oil Products and Refining Market
By the end of the year, prices for petroleum products have declined following the drop in crude oil prices. Gasoline and diesel fuel prices have decreased in most regions of the world. In the U.S., retail gasoline prices fell almost across all states ahead of the holiday season, alleviating some financial pressure on consumers. European refiners, previously reorienting towards alternative raw materials instead of Russian oil, now have stable supply lines. Global refineries maintain a high level of processing, benefiting from cheaper oil, although fuel demand remains moderate. Overall, refining margins remain stable, and there is no observed shortage of gasoline or diesel in the global market.
In Russia, after a sharp spike in gasoline prices in early autumn, government measures (including temporary export restrictions) have managed to cool the market. By December, wholesale and retail fuel prices stabilized domestically, reducing social tension and risks for the domestic petroleum product market.
Gas Market and LNG
The gas market is experiencing a paradoxical situation: despite an early and cold start to winter, natural gas prices in Europe continue to decline. Prices at the Dutch TTF hub have dropped below €30 per MWh — the lowest level since spring 2024, approximately 90% lower than the peak values during the 2022 crisis and 45% lower than prices at the beginning of the current year. The primary reason behind this decline is the unprecedented influx of liquefied natural gas, which compensates for reduced pipeline supplies from Russia. Natural gas storage facilities in the European Union are filled to about 75%. Although this is below the historical average for December, together with record LNG imports, this is sufficient to maintain stable prices even in freezing conditions.
- Europe: Record LNG imports have allowed gas prices to decrease, despite rising consumption during the heating season. In 2025, more than half of European LNG imports were provided by suppliers from the U.S., redirecting tankers from Asian markets. As a result, the spread between high European prices and lower American prices has significantly narrowed.
- U.S.: In North America, gas futures rose amid forecasts of exceptionally cold weather. At the Henry Hub, prices climbed above $5 per MMBtu due to the threat of an Arctic vortex and a surge in heating demand. However, domestic gas production in the U.S. remains at record high levels, which keeps prices in check as weather normalizes.
- Asia: By the end of the year, the gas market in Asia is relatively balanced. Demand in key countries in the region (China, South Korea, Japan) has been moderate, leading to the redirection of some additional LNG to Europe. Prices at Asian hubs, such as JKM, remained stable and did not experience sharp fluctuations, as competition for gas supplies between Europe and Asia weakened significantly compared to the situation in 2022.
Thus, the global gas market enters winter much more confidently than a year ago. Existing supplies and flexible delivery channels are sufficient to meet needs even during severe cold spells. The maneuverability of the LNG market plays a key role: tankers can be quickly redirected to the necessary regions, smoothing local imbalances. If this season's temperatures remain within normal ranges, the pricing situation for gas consumers will remain favorable.
Coal Sector
The traditional coal industry reached a historic peak in consumption in 2025; however, a slowdown is anticipated ahead. According to the International Energy Agency, global coal consumption increased by approximately 0.5% — reaching a record 8.85 billion tons. Coal remains the largest source of electricity generation worldwide, but its share in the energy balance is set to gradually decline: analysts project that global coal demand will plateau, followed by a decline by 2030, driven by the expansion of renewable energy and nuclear generation. However, regional dynamics differ:
- India: Coal consumption has decreased (only the third time in the last 50 years) due to an unusually strong monsoon season. Abundant rains increased generation at hydroelectric plants and reduced demand for electricity from coal-fired power plants.
- United States: In the U.S., coal usage has risen. This was driven by high natural gas prices in the first half of the year and political support for the coal industry. The new presidential administration in Washington has halted the decommissioning of several coal-fired plants, temporarily increasing the demand for coal in electricity generation.
- China: The world's largest coal consumer has maintained its consumption levels from the previous year. China burns 30% more coal than the rest of the world combined. However, gradual decreases in consumption are expected there by the end of the decade, as massive wind, solar, and nuclear power capacities come online.
Thus, 2025 is likely to be a peak year for the global coal industry. Subsequently, the increased competition from gas (where possible) and especially renewable energy sources will push coal out of the energy balance in many countries. However, in the short term, coal remains in demand in developing Asian economies, where growth in energy consumption is still outpacing the construction of new clean capacity.
Electricity and Renewable Energy
The electric power sector continues to transform under the influence of climate agendas and fluctuating fuel prices. In 2025, the share of renewable energy sources (RES) in global electricity generation reached new heights: many countries commissioned record capacities of solar and wind power plants. For example, China significantly increased its solar generation, while new offshore wind farms and large photovoltaic projects have been launched in Europe and the U.S., driven by government support and private investments. By the end of the year, global investments in green energy remain high, nearly matching fossil fuel investment levels.
The rapid growth of RES, however, poses challenges for ensuring the stability of energy systems. This winter in Europe, the variability of weather has become apparent: periods of low winds and shorter daylight hours have increased the burden on traditional generation. At the beginning of the season, EU countries were compelled to temporarily ramp up gas and coal generation due to an anticyclone that caused a drop in output from wind farms, leading to price spikes for electricity in some regions. Nevertheless, thanks to the growing capacities of RES and a significant share of gas in the energy balance, serious issues in power supply have been avoided. States and utility companies are also actively investing in energy storage systems and grid modernization to smooth peak loads and integrate renewable energy.
Countries' climate commitments continue to shape the direction of the industry. At the recent global climate summit (COP30) in Brazil, calls to accelerate the energy transition were voiced. Several states agreed to triple the commissioned RES capacities by 2030 and significantly improve energy efficiency. Simultaneously, there is a resurgence of interest in nuclear energy in many regions: new nuclear power plants are being built and the lifespan of existing plants is being extended to ensure base load generation without carbon emissions. Overall, the electricity sector is moving towards a cleaner and more sustainable future, although the transition period demands a delicate balance between supply reliability and environmental goals.
Geopolitics and Sanctions
Geopolitical factors continue to exert a significant influence on global energy markets. The ongoing conflict in Eastern Europe and related restrictions remain central to discussions:
- Peace Negotiations: In December, the most significant progress in peace negotiations regarding Ukraine has been noted since the start of the conflict. The U.S. has expressed readiness to provide Kyiv with security guarantees akin to NATO, while European mediators are observing a constructive dialogue. Hopes for a ceasefire have notably increased, although Moscow claims it will not make territorial concessions. Growing optimism regarding a possible cessation of hostilities has already sparked discussions about the prospects for partial relief from oil and gas sanctions against Russia in the foreseeable future.
- Sanction Pressures: Concurrently, Western countries are signaling their readiness to intensify pressure if the peace process stalls. Washington has prepared another package of restrictions against the Russian energy sector that could be imposed should the negotiations fail. Earlier in the autumn, the U.S. and U.K. expanded sanctions against oil giants "Rosneft" and "Lukoil," hampering their ability to attract investments and access technologies. In Europe, there is also an escalation of legal measures against Russian energy infrastructure: at the beginning of December, a court in the Netherlands, based on a lawsuit from Ukraine, seized the assets of the operator of the "Turkish Stream" pipeline, demonstrating a new level of sanctions pressure on export routes.
- Infrastructure Risks: Armed conflicts and sabotage continue to threaten energy facilities. The Ukrainian side recently intensified drone attacks on oil infrastructure deep within Russia. In particular, fires were reported at refineries in the Krasnodar region and on the Volga as a result of drone strikes. Although these incidents have only minimally reduced the overall fuel supply, they underscore the ongoing military risks to the industry until a durable peace is achieved.
- Venezuela: Geopolitics also impacts the oil market in Latin America. After the partial easing of sanctions against Venezuela in the autumn, the U.S. has tightened oversight of compliance with the conditions of the deal. In December, an incident occurred with the detention of a tanker carrying Venezuelan oil on suspicion of breaching licensing terms. The state-owned company PDVSA has faced demands from buyers to increase discounts and revise supply terms, complicating Caracas's efforts to boost exports despite a recent allowance from the U.S. to temporarily increase production in exchange for political concessions from Venezuelan authorities.
Overall, the sanctions standoff between Russia and the West, alongside other international disagreements, continues to inject uncertainty into the global energy sector. Investors are closely monitoring political developments, as any changes — from breakthroughs in peace talks to the imposition of new restrictions — could markedly affect the prices of oil, gas, and other energy resources.
Corporate News and Projects
Major energy companies and infrastructure projects worldwide are concluding the year with a series of important decisions and events:
- Aramco Enters the Indian Market: Saudi Aramco has resumed plans to invest in a large refining complex in India. The company is close to acquiring a stake in the West Coast Refinery project, aiming to establish itself in the rapidly growing Indian market and secure long-term channels for its oil sales.
- New Project in Guyana: A consortium led by ExxonMobil has approved the development of another major offshore field in Guyana, aiming for production to commence by 2028. Oil production in Guyana continues to grow rapidly, strengthening the country's position as one of the most dynamically developing new oil producers.
- Record Wind Farm in the North Sea: The world's largest offshore wind farm, Dogger Bank, with a total capacity of 3.6 GW, has completed construction in the North Sea. The project, realized by a consortium of European energy companies, can supply electricity to up to 6 million households in the UK. This milestone demonstrates the potential of large-scale green projects and marks an important step in the development of renewable energy.
- Transnational Oil Transit: Russian "Transneft" and Kazakh "KazTransOil" have signed an agreement for the transportation of Kazakh oil through Russian territory in 2026. The agreement ensures continued cooperation in hydrocarbon exports despite geopolitical complexities and utilizes existing pipeline infrastructure.
Overall, players in the oil, gas, and energy sector are adapting to this new market reality. Some are reassessing their asset portfolios in light of geopolitical risks and changing market conditions (like Aramco venturing into new markets), while others capitalize on favorable conditions to increase production and implement projects (like ExxonMobil with partners in Guyana). Simultaneously, investments continue in both traditional oil and gas sectors and energy transition technologies — from wind energy to hydrogen technologies. The industry faces the crucial task of balancing short-term profitability with long-term decarbonization goals, and this choice will define the key strategic decisions of companies as they approach 2026.
