Current News in the Oil, Gas and Energy Sector as of 28 December 2025: Hopes for Peaceful Resolution Rise, Oil and Gas Prices Increase, India Boosts Imports, China Expands Production, Russia Implements Measures to Stabilize Domestic Fuel Market. Full Overview of the Global Fuel and Energy Complex.
As we approach the end of 2025, global energy markets are sending mixed signals to investors and industry participants. Negotiations for a peaceful resolution to the conflict in Ukraine are instilling cautious optimism regarding a potential easing of sanctions on the Russian energy sector; however, we are still far from a breakthrough in agreements—uncertainty remains prevalent. At the same time, the sanctions regime remains in place: in November, Washington intensified restrictions, extending sanctions to deals with major Russian oil companies, forcing the market to adapt to new conditions.
The global oil market, which experienced a significant price decline throughout the year due to an oversupply and slowing demand, showed signs of stabilization by the end of December. After four months of declines, prices turned upward—benchmark Brent crude rose from around $60 to $62–63 per barrel, and WTI climbed to about $58–59. The weekly increase was approximately 3%, although oil prices have decreased by about 16% for the year. Price support came from geopolitical factors (a drone attack on an oil terminal in Novorossiysk and military risks in Nigeria), as well as OPEC+'s decision to maintain production limits for the first quarter of 2026 instead of the planned quota increase.
The European gas market began the winter season with record stocks in underground storage, which drove exchange prices down to their lowest levels in the past year (around $330 per thousand cubic meters at the beginning of December). However, the Christmas cold spurred demand: during the holidays, gas withdrawals from underground storage facilities reached record levels, and prices at the TTF hub bounced back to approximately $345 per thousand m3 (around €28/MWh). Despite high resource availability, the European market remains sensitive to weather risks. EU countries have virtually eliminated reliance on Russian pipeline gas (Russia's share has dropped to about 13% of imports) and are focusing on LNG—new deals are being struck with the US and the Middle East, alongside an enhanced infrastructure for gas reception. As a result, current gas prices, while significantly lower than the peaks of 2022, may rise again with prolonged cold spells.
Meanwhile, the global transition to clean energy continues to gain momentum. Many countries are recording new production records from renewable sources: the total capacity of solar and wind power plants commissioned in 2025 exceeded the figures of any previous year. According to industry analysts, renewable energy production surpassed coal generation for the first time in history in the first half of 2025. Investments in green energy are also at record highs (estimated at over $2 trillion in 2025), although they are still primarily concentrated in developed economies and China. To ensure the reliability of energy systems, many governments are hesitant to entirely forgo traditional hydrocarbons: coal and gas-fired power plants remain critically important for covering peak demand and balancing the grid, particularly during periods when renewable sources cannot provide sufficient generation.
In Russia, following a sharp jump in gasoline and diesel prices in the autumn, authorities implemented a series of operational measures aimed at normalizing the situation in the domestic fuel market. The government temporarily restricted the export of petroleum products, increased sales norms on the exchange, and adjusted the damping mechanism for subsidies to redirect additional volumes to the domestic market. These steps have had a tangible effect: wholesale prices for automotive fuel began to decline. For instance, the exchange price of AI-95 gasoline dropped by nearly 10% in mid-December compared to the peak values seen in the autumn. The supply situation at gas stations is stable, and fuel shortages in the regions have been eliminated. Below is a detailed review of key news and trends in the oil, gas, electricity, coal, and fuel segments as of this date.
Oil Market: Prices Rise Amid Limited Supply
Global oil prices moderately increased over the past week following an extended period of decline and generally remain relatively stable under the influence of fundamental factors. North Sea Brent has stabilized in the range of $60–63 per barrel, while American WTI is around $57–59. Current levels are still approximately 15% lower than a year ago, reflecting a gradual market correction after price peaks in previous years. The dynamics of the oil market are influenced by several factors:
- OPEC+ Production Policy: To combat the oversupply, OPEC+ member countries have abandoned the previously planned increase in production. Quotas for the first quarter of 2026 remain at the levels from the end of 2025, with several major exporters (including Saudi Arabia) continuing to voluntarily limit output. These measures aim to prevent overproduction and support prices, but they also lead to a reduced share of OPEC+ in the market.
- Increased Production Outside OPEC: Independent producers are ramping up output. In the US, oil production has approached a historical high of around 13 million barrels/day, thanks to a shale boom, and exports of refined products are also increasing. Other non-OPEC countries have also capitalized on high prices from previous years to increase production, intensifying competition in the market and creating surplus oil inventories.
- Slowing Demand Growth: Global oil demand in 2025 grew much more slowly than during the post-pandemic recovery period. According to the IEA, the increase in demand was only about 0.7 million barrels/day (compared to 2.5 million in 2023). Even OPEC’s forecasts were revised down to approximately 1.3 million b/d. Contributing factors include sluggish economic growth worldwide and the impact of high prices in recent years, which have incentivized energy conservation. An additional factor is the slowdown in industrial growth in China, which has constrained the appetite of the world's second-largest oil consumer.
- Geopolitics and Sanctions: The global situation remains uncertain. Deteriorating conditions in the Middle East and Africa periodically threaten supply; for instance, US strikes against radical groups in oil-producing Nigeria and attacks on vessels carrying Venezuelan oil have heightened fears of disruptions. On the other hand, the prospect of a peaceful resolution to the situation in Ukraine has generated hopes for the easing of certain sanctions against Russia and an increase in its exports. Until this occurs, the impact of sanctions remains: Russia is selling oil at a significant discount (Urals prices averaged around $40/barrel in December, well below Brent), utilizing alternative markets and a "shadow fleet" of tankers to circumvent embargoes.
Gas Market: Winter Demand Drives Prices Up
The European gas market continues to be at the center of attention. Entering winter with storage facilities filled to over 90%, the EU achieved a relative price respite in the autumn: in early December, the spot price of gas dropped to around $330 per thousand cubic meters—its lowest level since mid-2024. However, the cold snap at the end of the month triggered an increase in consumption: during the holidays, EU underground storage facilities lost significant volumes of gas, although the safety cushion remains high (storage was over 75% full by the end of December). Prices reacted with a moderate increase, but they are still far below the crisis peaks of previous winters.
European countries continue to diversify their gas sources. The share of Russian gas in EU imports has dropped to a historic low, and even after any potential resolution to the conflict, Brussels intends to maintain restrictions on supplies from Russia. LNG supplies to the European market are increasing—major energy companies are signing new contracts for American and Qatari LNG, and some Eastern European countries have started receiving gas from Azerbaijan and North Africa.
At the same time, demand in Asia remains a significant factor. In China, LNG imports rose by nearly 11% in October compared to the previous year, driven by an industrial recovery following the lifting of quarantine restrictions, while India, conversely, cut LNG purchases by 11% (mainly due to high prices and a shift to coal for power generation). Nevertheless, overall global gas consumption increased in 2025—according to Gazprom estimates, by 25 billion cubic meters—thanks to economic recovery and expansion of gasification in developing countries. Russia, having lost a significant portion of its European market, has redirected its exports: pipeline supplies to China through the Power of Siberia reached 38.8 billion cubic meters in 2025 (a record volume close to project capacity), while Russian LNG exports to European countries (such as Belgium) even increased due to the absence of formal bans on liquefied gas.
International Politics: Peace Talks Offer Hope for Sanctions Relief
In the realm of foreign policy, the end of the year has been marked by a revitalization of dialogue among key global players regarding the Ukrainian crisis. In mid-December, Russian President Vladimir Putin, in a meeting with business representatives, revealed details of negotiations with the US, expressing readiness for "certain territorial compromises" in exchange for consolidating control over the entire Donbas region. Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky, in turn, stated that "a lot can be resolved" by the New Year—he conducted a series of consultations with representatives of the US administration ahead of a possible meeting with President Donald Trump.
These peace signals are fueling investors' hopes for a gradual normalization of relations and potential lifting of some of the sanctions imposed against Russia. The prospect of signing a peace agreement has already influenced market sentiments: traders are pricing in the possibility of easing restrictions on Russian oil and gas exports in the event of a durable ceasefire. However, uncertainty remains high. Until specific agreements have been reached, Western countries continue their course of sanctions pressure. Washington has previously signalled its readiness to expand energy sanctions if Moscow drags out negotiations, and the EU has agreed to implement a complete embargo on Russian gas immediately after hostilities conclude. Thus, the further "thawing" of Russian fuel exports largely depends on the outcome of political dialogue in the coming weeks.
Asia: India Increases Imports Amid Pressure, China Hits Production Records
- India: Faced with unprecedented pressure from the West (Washington, for instance, has raised tariffs on Indian goods to 50%), New Delhi is unwilling to forgo advantageous imports of Russian raw materials. In December, the volume of oil deliveries from Russia to India is estimated at over 1.2 million barrels per day (following a record 1.77 million b/d in November), as Indian refineries hurried to contract crude before the new US sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil came into effect on November 21. Recent negotiations between Vladimir Putin and Narendra Modi reaffirmed their intent to maintain energy cooperation despite external pressures.
- China: Beijing is betting on increasing its own energy production and infrastructure. In 2025, oil production in China reached a record ~215 million tons (about 4.3 million b/d), and gas production also hit a new high. At the same time, China is investing in expanding oil refining and electricity generation: launching new fields and generating capacities helps to reduce dependence on imports. Nevertheless, China remains the world's largest importer of energy resources—it continues to purchase significant volumes of oil (including at discounted prices from Russia) and LNG to meet demand. The economic slowdown in China in 2025 somewhat tempered growth in domestic energy consumption, but the country remains a key driver of demand in the global market.
Energy Transition: Record Growth in Renewable Energy and Continued Role of Traditional Energy
The development of renewable energy sources (RES) in 2025 set new benchmarks. New solar and wind power plants were commissioned worldwide, increasing the share of green generation. Throughout the year, approximately 750 GW of new RES capacity was added—more than ever before. As a result, in certain periods, renewable energy sources accounted for over 50% of electricity generation in some countries. At the same time, there is a boom in investment in clean energy: analysts estimate that the total exceeded $2 trillion for the year.
However, despite impressive achievements, the transition to clean energy faces objective challenges. Electricity demand continues to rise as the economy recovers, and traditional sources—gas, coal, nuclear energy—remain necessary for stable energy supply. In 2025, the global carbon footprint of energy reached a new high, with fossil fuels still accounting for about 80% of global energy consumption. During peak loads or adverse weather conditions (when sunlight and wind are not sufficiently available), systems may have to rely on coal and gas-fired power stations to prevent blackouts. Governments recognize that ensuring energy security and affordability is a priority: for example, Europe and the US have introduced programs to subsidize the production of key RES equipment, while strategic reserves of oil and gas are also maintained for crisis situations. Thus, 2025 demonstrated progress in decarbonization but confirmed that traditional energy will continue to play a significant role in the global balance for the foreseeable future.
Coal: Market Stability in the Face of High Demand
Despite the accelerated development of renewable energy, the coal sector maintained a strong position in 2025 due to steady demand. According to the IEA, global coal consumption reached a record 8.8 billion tons for the year—approximately 0.5% more than the previous year. The main growth was driven by Asian countries: China and India continue to burn about two-thirds of the world's coal for electricity generation and steel production. The construction of new coal-fired power stations continues in Southeast Asia and Africa, as coal remains one of the most accessible forms of fuel.
Coal prices stabilized in 2025 following a period of sharp fluctuations in 2022–2023. In key Asian markets (e.g., Australia and Indonesia), the price of thermal coal hovers around $140–150 per ton, which is lower than the peak values of the crisis year 2022 but comfortable for producers. Major exporters—Indonesia, Australia, Russia, and South Africa—are maintaining high production levels to meet importer needs. At the same time, developed Western nations continue to reduce their coal use: in Europe, coal generation decreased at double-digit rates in 2025 due to the rise in renewable energy and environmental restrictions. However, the global reduction in Europe is compensated by growth in other parts of the world. Thus, the coal market remains balanced: supply is sufficient to cover high demand, and although the long-term trend is gradually shifting in favor of cleaner energy sources, coal will remain an important part of the global energy balance in the coming years.
Russian Oil Products Market: Operational Measures to Stabilize Fuel Prices
The Russian oil products market saw unprecedented price fluctuations in 2025. The sharp rise in gasoline and diesel prices in the summer and autumn posed a threat to the transport sector and fueled inflation. In response, the Russian government took stringent measures to protect the market: bans and quotas on the export of automotive fuel were implemented, sales norms for oil products on the St. Petersburg exchange were increased, and budgeting subsidies (damping) were adjusted towards additional support for refiners supplying products to the domestic market. These measures, combined with the completion of scheduled repairs at oil refineries, have allowed for increased fuel supply within the country.
By the start of winter, the situation had stabilized. Wholesale prices on the exchange began to decrease, soon reflected in retail pricing. According to the St. Petersburg International Commodity Exchange, by mid-December, prices for "Premium-95" gasoline had fallen by approximately 10% from September peaks. Diesel prices also retreated, returning to levels from the beginning of the year. Network gas stations across the country report improved resource availability, with fuel shortages eliminated even in remote regions. Authorities have stated their readiness to extend export restrictions if needed to curb prices domestically and are considering implementing a permanent regulatory mechanism—such as tying fuel prices to export alternatives with compensation for refineries. As a result of these measures, the fuel crisis has been mitigated, and the Russian oil products market heads into 2026 in a relatively balanced state.
