Current Oil and Gas News and Energy on February 15, 2026: Dynamics of Brent and WTI Oil, Gas Market and LNG, Electricity and Renewables, Coal, Oil Products and Refineries. Global Overview for Investors and Energy Sector Participants.
The end of the week on commodity markets was marked by a "tug-of-war" between geopolitical premiums and increasing signals of excess supply. Oil remained near $68 per barrel for Brent, but the focus shifted to April: market participants are assessing the likelihood of a resumption in OPEC+ output growth and the effects of expanded operations in Venezuela for international players. In the gas market, Europe remains sensitive to weather and hydrology: a lack of snow cover in the Alpine region is raising gas generation and supporting import demand.
- Oil: Brent and WTI finished the day with slight gains but posted weekly losses; the key catalyst was expectations regarding OPEC+ and intensified supply themes.
- Gas: the American Henry Hub stabilized around $3+ per MMBtu after extreme volatility in January; in Europe, TTF retreated, but energy balance risks remain.
- Oil products: European ICE gasoil experienced a notable drop; premiums and margins remain volatile amid refinery maintenance and seasonal demand adjustments.
- Coal and electricity: "ARA coal" strengthened, while German base electricity (futures) declined by the end of the day.
Key Price Indicators
Below is a "showcase" for investors and participants in the energy sector: oil, gas hubs, oil products, coal, and electricity. All changes are calculated as the difference in closing prices on February 13, 2026, compared to the closing on February 12, 2026, for the respective indicators (where available).
| Indicator | Region/Platform | Unit | Closing (February 13, 2026) | Daily Change | Daily Change, % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent (front-month) | Global export benchmark | USD/barrel | 67.75 | +0.23 | +0.34% |
| WTI (front-month) | USA, NYMEX | USD/barrel | 62.89 | +0.05 | +0.08% |
| Henry Hub (NYMEX nat gas, front-month) | USA, key gas hub | USD/MMBtu | 3.243 | +0.026 | +0.81% |
| TTF (ICE Dutch TTF, front-month) | Europe, gas hub | EUR/MWh | 32.500 | -0.494 | -1.50% |
| ICE Gasoil (London Gas Oil) | Europe, diesel/gasoil | USD/ton | 672.50 | -25.75 | -3.69% |
| Coal ARA (Rotterdam Coal) | Europe, ARA (proxy for API2 logic) | USD/ton | 104.85 | +1.55 | +1.50% |
| Electricity Germany (Baseload month) | Europe, futures | EUR/MWh | 101.22 | -2.95 | -2.83% |
Oil: Supply and Demand Balance Back in Focus
For the oil market, the week has become a "mode switch": the geopolitical premium (primarily around the US-Iran situation) supported prices, but supply risk started to dominate the news flow. Sources indicate a willingness among some OPEC+ participants to revert to planned production increases from April — this decision is under discussion amidst expectations of seasonal demand increases in spring and summer. For investors, this means a rising likelihood of a mild surplus in the second quarter and an increased sensitivity of oil prices to inventory and export data.
Simultaneously, international forecasters are enhancing the "bearish" contour: the IEA has lowered its estimate of global oil demand growth for 2026 while noting a structural gap between expected supply and consumption. Within this framework, any additional flow — from OPEC+ or from sanctioned countries — is seen as a factor shifting the curve toward contango and applying pressure on spreads.
- Fundamentals: the market is digesting simultaneous signals of "less demand" and "more potential supply."
- Supply Risks: discussions on reverting to production increases by OPEC+ and increasing Venezuelan capabilities through changes in the access regime for international companies.
- Short Horizon: next week will feature key statements from OPEC+ and dynamics regarding US oil inventory/refining.
Gas and LNG: Europe Remains Weather-Dependent, the US Returns to More 'Normal' Prices
The gas market is diverging by regions. In the US, Henry Hub is returning to levels closer to mid-term balance perspectives — following a January cold wave when futures and spot prices displayed extreme spikes. For fuel companies and gas consumers, this signals a transition from "force majeure" demand mode to a stock and production calibration phase.
In Europe, TTF declined by the end of the day, but fundamental nervousness persists: the weather factor changes not only through temperature but also hydrology. Low snow cover in parts of the Alpine region means weak hydropower generation and greater gas draw for electricity generation, directly affecting storage filling/discharging rates and spot delivery premiums. For the global LNG market, this linkage increases the importance of short-term changes in flows and tanker availability.
As of February 15, 2026: detailed data on European underground gas storage (UGS) fill rates and JKM/TTF spreads have not been disclosed in this publication (no confirmed public numbers from available primary sources), so the assessment is based on the overall trend in demand for gas generation and hub volatility.
Oil Products and Refineries: Diesel Margins Weaken, but Repairs Support Profitability
The oil products markets concluded the week with a decline in European gasoil, indicating a rapid reassessment of expectations in the middle distillate segment. However, for refineries and fuel companies, the key parameter is not so much the futures level but the crack spreads, regional premiums, and material availability. Here, the picture is complicated by two counter-vailing processes: seasonal refinery maintenance reduces oil product supply, while weakening demand outside peak heating/transport windows lowers price support.
In the US, an important corporate signal has been the focus on Venezuelan crude: easing of the access regime increases the likelihood of imports of heavy grades for optimizing the refining slate at American refineries. For arbitrage, this means a potential redistribution of flows: some barrels previously headed elsewhere may be diverted to the Atlantic, impacting freights and differentials.
- For refineries: risk — "flat" prices for oil products amidst high crude; support — competitive maintenance and logistics constraints.
- For trading: focus — diesel/gasoil, regional spreads, and freight rates for product tankers.
- For investors: the importance of guidance on margins and utilization from public refiners increases.
Sanctions and Geopolitics: Russia, Iran, and Venezuela Shape Energy's 'Political Premium'
Geopolitics is once again part of the pricing equation: tensions in the Middle East around the US-Iran situation support the risk premium for oil and increase the "price" of potential disruptions. Concurrently, the sanctions agenda in Europe is shifting from price limitations to logistics — discussions are underway regarding intensified restrictions on maritime services for Russian oil and expanding the sanctions framework to infrastructure and ports of third countries. This directly affects transportation and insurance costs and increases the importance of "grey" chains.
At the other end of the spectrum is Venezuela: the expansion of access for international players opens up opportunities for accelerated production and investment, but operational details (licenses, payment mechanisms, banking compliance) will determine the speed of actual growth. This is why the oil market is trading in the coming weeks not only based on current inventories but also on the quality of political signals.
Energy and Renewables: Policies Shift Curves, Electricity Reflects Nervousness in Balance
The renewable energy sector continues to expand its investment base, but policies are becoming more differentiated. The UK has registered a record amount of support for solar projects in another auction, emphasizing the focus on scalable low-carbon technologies. France, in contrast, has adjusted its energy strategy parameters, lowering targets for wind and solar while strengthening the role of nuclear generation; for European energy, this signifies a more complex trajectory for the development of grids, storage, and balancing capacities.
At the price level, German electricity (futures) declined at the end of the day, which appears to be a reaction to short-term normalization of balance expectations, but fundamentally, European energy remains sensitive to gas, weather, and the availability of low-carbon generation.
Brief Forecast for the Coming Days (February 15–20, 2026): the base scenario is for oil to remain within a corridor where the upper limit is constrained by expected production increases, while the lower limit is protected by geopolitical premiums. Gas in Europe will continue to be a "weather deal", while for oil products, the key intrigue will be the resilience of diesel spreads amidst refinery maintenance.
- What to watch for investors: signals from OPEC+ (ahead of the meeting on March 1, 2026), practical details on Venezuela (licenses and export flows), dynamics of the EU/G7 sanctions agenda, and risks around the US-Iran situation.
- What to watch for market participants: arbitrage opportunities for crude and oil products, logistics of deliveries, premiums to gas hubs, and load on gas generation in Europe.
This material is prepared in an expositional form for an audience of investors and market participants: oil, gas, energy, renewables, coal, oil products, refineries, and fuel companies. If specific figures or corporate details are missing from open primary sources, they are marked as unavailable as of February 15, 2026.
