Current News in the Oil and Gas and Energy Market as of November 19, 2025: Falling Oil Prices, Rising Gas Demand Ahead of Cold Weather, Increasing Sanctions, Dynamics of Renewable Energy Sources, Situation with Oil Products and Refining. Analytics for Investors and Industry Participants.
The current events in the oil and gas and energy sector as of November 19, 2025, are unfolding under the influence of contradictory factors. **Oil prices** remain under pressure due to an oversupply: Brent quotes hover around local minima ($63–64 per barrel, **WTI** – about $59–60), reflecting the market surplus. At the same time, the European **gas market** is experiencing a price lull against the backdrop of full storage facilities and a mild autumn – gas exchange prices dipped to one-and-a-half-year lows (~$370 per thousand cubic meters), although the projected sharp cold snap in Europe is reviving volatility and supporting demand. At the geopolitical level, **sanction pressure** is intensifying: the West is preparing new restrictions against Russian energy exports, which is already altering global oil trade flows. Meanwhile, the **global energy transition** is gaining momentum – investments in renewable energy sources are reaching record highs, although traditional resources still play a key role in meeting global demand. In Russia, emergency government measures have stabilized the domestic fuel market following a recent crisis, normalizing supply to gas stations. Below is a detailed overview of key industry segments – oil, gas, geopolitics, electricity sector, coal sector, renewable energy sources (RES), as well as the market for oil products and refining.
Oil Market: Oversupply Pressures Prices
The global **oil market** is entering winter showing signs of saturation. After a brief rebound last week, prices are stagnating at diminished levels: Brent remains in the $60–64 range per barrel, significantly lower than a month ago and about 10–15% below last year's figures. The main factor is the proactive increase in supply against a backdrop of slowed demand, creating a surplus of oil and suppressing quotes. Global energy reserves remain high, and traders are factoring in the scenario of continued oversupply in Q4.
- OPEC+ and Other Producers' Production: The OPEC+ oil alliance has methodically increased production in 2025, reintroducing previously restricted volumes to the market. Since the beginning of the year, total global supply has increased by approximately 5–6 million barrels per day, mainly due to OPEC+ countries and record output increases in the United States and Brazil. As long as prices stay above critical levels for producers (~$50), alliance participants are in no hurry to announce further cuts. However, OPEC+ representatives have indicated that they are willing to reduce production again in 2026 if prices drop too low.
- Demand and Economic Situation: The growth of global oil consumption has slowed due to weak macroeconomic dynamics. A slowdown in the Chinese economy, high interest rates in the USA and EU, and energy-saving measures – all of these factors are limiting demand growth. In 2025, global oil consumption is projected to increase by less than +0.8 million barrels per day (for comparison: +2 million barrels per day in 2023). Nevertheless, certain segments remain resilient: the beginning of the heating season supports demand for oil products (diesel, fuel oil), and air travel and road traffic are gradually recovering.
- Geopolitical Risks: Tensions stemming from sanctions and conflicts occasionally make their presence felt, but their impact is short-term. For example, last week's drone attack on the port of Novorossiysk temporarily interrupted exports, causing prices to jump by over 2%. However, the swift recovery of shipments returned the market to its downward trend. Overall, even sharp incidents currently only support prices temporarily, yielding to the significance of fundamental market oversupply factors.
Gas Market: Cold Snap in Europe and the Role of LNG
The **gas market** witnessed relative stability this autumn, but the approaching winter is bringing new adjustments. Europe is entering the heating season with substantial reserves: underground gas storage is filled to an average of ~85–90%, providing a solid buffer. Thanks to mild weather in September–October, European gas prices dropped to their lowest levels since spring 2024 – TTF futures fell below €31 per MWh (~$370 per 1000 cubic meters). However, forecasts of a sharp cold snap in Western Europe (5–7°C below normal) have led to price increases from the achieved lows: as cold weather approaches, the demand for heating gas is rapidly increasing, driving the market upwards.
- Supply and Storage Balance: Meteorologists anticipate a significant increase in gas consumption in the coming weeks due to cold weather. If winter turns out to be harsh, even record reserves may only last until the end of the season – accelerated withdrawals from gas storage may trigger a new round of price increases and the need to increase imports. However, the current level of demand in the EU is still below pre-crisis levels: industries and households that experienced the energy crisis of 2022–2023 have implemented conservation measures. This gives hope that, with a mild winter, existing reserves will suffice to meet peak demands without fuel shortages.
- The Role of LNG and External Supplies: The stability of the market continues to depend heavily on liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports. European companies are continuing to purchase large volumes of LNG from various regions – from the USA and Qatar to Africa. Record exports of American LNG and increased capacities in the Middle East have ensured high supply in the global market, keeping spot prices relatively low. At the same time, demand in Asia remains subdued: the economies of China and other countries in the region are cooling, and storage facilities in East Asia are full, so competition between Europe and Asia for LNG shipments is not currently observed. This has allowed for the redirection of additional tankers to the EU and smoothed seasonal fluctuations. Alternative pipeline supplies to Europe remain stable: Norway, Algeria, and other exporters continue to reliably cover a significant portion of the EU's needs, compensating for absent Russian gas.
International Context: Sanctions and Redirection of Energy Exports
**Geopolitical factors** continue to significantly influence the fuel and energy complex. In November, the West intensified its sanction pressure on the Russian oil and gas sector. The **USA** imposed stringent restrictions against the largest oil companies in Russia, including Rosneft and Lukoil, setting a deadline of November 21 for the completion of any operations with them. As a result, major Asian importers began to adjust their actions: several Indian refiners suspended new purchases of Russian oil with shipments scheduled for December, while Chinese state-owned companies temporarily reduced purchases of maritime shipments. These actions by the two main buyers of Russian raw materials force Moscow to offer even steeper discounts to sell volumes – the discount on Urals grade reached ~$4 to Brent (a year high). Meanwhile, the **European Union** has prepared the 18th package of sanctions, which includes further restrictions: from tightening the price cap on oil (a cut to ~$47 per barrel is being discussed) to sanctions against the tanker "shadow fleet" and certain foreign refineries linked to Russian crude processing. Although the effectiveness of the new measures is limited (Russia is actively rerouting exports to friendly countries and utilizing alternative logistics), the uncertainty surrounding sanctions reduces investment activity and compels companies to restructure supply chains.
Against this backdrop, a redirection of global **energy flows** is occurring. Exports of oil and oil products from Russia are increasingly shifting to Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America, compensating for the decline in shipments to Europe. **India**, which previously increased its import of Russian oil due to steep discounts, is now under external pressure to diversify its sources and seeks to reduce dependence on a single supplier in the long term. The country has launched programs to increase domestic production – national companies are drilling new deepwater wells to enhance energy security. **China** remains the largest buyer of Russian hydrocarbons, having not joined Western restrictions; however, Beijing is also increasing its domestic oil production (+1–2% per year) and gas (+5–6% per year) to decrease imports. Simultaneously, Chinese importers and the state are signing long-term contracts for supplies from various countries (Middle East, Latin America, USA – through LNG) to diversify risks. Thus, global trade in energy resources is gradually restructuring: Russia has to develop new sales markets, offering competitive conditions while major consumers balance between energy profitability and geopolitical considerations.
Positive signals for the markets come from separate steps towards de-escalation in international relations. A fragile ceasefire in one of the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East has lowered the risk of interruptions in oil supplies from the region. Additionally, the USA and China agreed on a temporary trade truce on the sidelines of a recent summit, easing mutual tariffs – this improves forecasts for the global economy and energy demand. However, there are still no substantive breakthroughs in resolving the largest geopolitical crises, so sanctions and trade restrictions will remain significant factors for the fuel and energy complex in the foreseeable future.
Electricity Sector: Network Load and Generation Records
The global **electricity sector** in 2025 demonstrates resilience in the face of growing loads and changes in generation structure. Many countries are setting new records for electricity consumption: an abnormally hot summer led to a surge in demand for air conditioning, and winter may bring peak loads during cold spells. Meanwhile, the transition to low-carbon generation continues at an accelerated pace – the share of renewable sources (solar and wind power plants) is steadily increasing, reaching historic highs in production within the energy balances of a number of states. In the first half of 2025, global RES generation, according to analysts, for the first time exceeded the output from coal power plants. In some economies (EU, USA, China), on certain days, up to 80–100% of electricity is drawn from solar, wind, and other **RES**. This indicates significant progress in the energy transition but presents new challenges in ensuring the stability of energy systems.
- Reliability and Power Reserves: The rapid growth of solar and wind generation necessitates infrastructure modernization. Due to the intermittent nature of RES, special attention is being paid to the development of energy storage systems (industrial batteries, pumped storage plants) and supporting capacities. Gas and coal power plants are still employed to cover peak loads during cold winter evenings and calm periods, although their role is gradually diminishing. Energy companies are investing in smart grids and demand management systems to avoid overloads. Despite extreme temperatures and record consumption, energy systems in developed countries managed to withstand the strain in 2025 without mass outages, which instills confidence ahead of the upcoming winter.
- Government Policy: Governments of leading economies are supporting the trend towards decarbonization of the electricity sector. In the European Union, new target benchmarks for the share of renewable energy by 2030 have been established, stimulating the construction of wind farms and solar stations. In the USA, subsidy programs and tax incentives for clean energy continue to operate, although their parameters may be revised depending on the political climate. China and India are implementing large-scale state projects to develop electricity networks and storage systems while simultaneously increasing their own generation from RES and nuclear energy. There is a growing interest in innovative technologies worldwide – from "green" hydrogen to new modular nuclear reactors – as prospective elements of future energy systems.
Coal Sector: Demand Plateau and Pressure on Production
The global **coal sector** is reaching a turning point. After several years of growth, coal consumption has risen to historically high levels and is now stabilizing. By the end of 2024, global coal consumption reached a record ~8.8 billion tons, but in 2025, this figure is no longer increasing – demand has effectively plateaued. Stricter environmental policies and competition from cheap RES are leading many countries to abandon plans to expand coal generation. International forecasts agree that a gradual decline in coal consumption will begin in 2025–2026 as the energy transition accelerates.
- Oversupply and Prices: Despite stagnating demand, global coal production remains near peak levels. Major producers (China, India, Indonesia, Australia) maintain high production levels, and some exporters have even increased volumes, trying to profit from last year's high prices. As a result, the market has formed excess inventories, and coal prices have fallen to their lowest levels in several years. Companies with high costs have particularly felt this pressure. Many coal mines in the USA and Europe are reducing production, while Russian exporters are facing declining profits due to cheaper raw materials and sanction restrictions on supplies. Market conditions are forcing players to reassess investment plans: new projects are being put on hold, and existing capacities are being optimized for lower demand.
- Transitionary Strategy: Although coal remains an important part of the energy balance in several countries (especially in Asia), the industry is preparing for a reduction in the long term. Governments are introducing increasingly stringent environmental regulations, encouraging power plants to switch to gas and RES, and implementing carbon taxes. Large energy companies are announcing targets to phase out coal generation by 2030–2040. Meanwhile, some developing economies require financial support to transition away from coal: investment programs are being discussed at international forums to help replace coal capacity with "clean" energy without compromising energy security. Thus, the coal sector is under dual pressure – from the market and regulatory measures – and has already entered a phase of structural decline.
Renewable Energy: Record Investments and Climate Goals
Renewable energy continues to set new records, becoming the main driver of industry development. The year 2025 is expected to be record-setting for the introduction of **RES** capacities: it is estimated that around 600–700 GW of new generating capacity based on solar, wind, and other sources will be added globally over the year – even more than in the previous year 2024 (when approximately 580 GW was added). The solar energy and wind energy sectors are receiving massive investments worldwide as countries strive to achieve their climate commitments. However, experts note that to meet the targets of the Paris Agreement, the pace of "green" generation deployment must be accelerated – potentially tripling annual volumes by the end of the decade.
- International Climate Agenda: At the upcoming **COP30** summit, global leaders will discuss further strengthening measures to combat climate change. Many countries have already announced plans to increase the share of RES in their energy balance by 2030 (the EU, China, India, and the USA are revising their targets upwards). An initiative for a complete phase-out of coal generation is being discussed for the coming decades. However, challenges remain – from the need to modernize electricity grids to securing raw materials for manufacturing solar panels and batteries. Despite some obstacles (e.g., reductions in subsidies in certain jurisdictions), the global trend towards a transition to clean energy is considered irreversible: **renewable technologies** are becoming cheaper, attracting investor interest.
- Records and Technologies: The year 2025 has been marked by significant achievements in the RES sector. In certain regions (for example, South Australia, parts of Europe), wind and solar stations met 100% of electricity demand for hours, demonstrating the potential of a carbon-free system. The deployment of innovations continues: the world's largest energy storage systems are being built to smooth generation fluctuations, and "green" hydrogen projects are being developed for storing excess electricity. Offshore wind, floating solar stations, geothermal sources – all enhance the RES arsenal. Overall, the share of renewable energy in global electricity production has closely approached 35–40%. It is expected that in a few years, more than half of the energy consumption growth will be covered precisely by RES, reducing the economy's dependence on fossil fuels.
Refining and Fuel Market: Stabilization After the Crisis
Following the volatility of early autumn, the global **oil products** market is showing signs of stabilization. The decline in oil prices and the conclusion of the summer holiday season enabled refineries to increase fuel output and replenish gasoline and diesel supplies. In Europe and the USA, wholesale fuel prices have retreated from the peak values of September, which has also been reflected at gas stations: the cost of gasoline and diesel fuel for consumers has moderately decreased relative to early autumn levels. Thus, the situation in external fuel markets is more balanced as winter approaches than it was a couple of months ago.
- Global Refining: This autumn, refiners worldwide increased production capacity utilization, taking advantage of the pause in price growth. Oil product exports from the Middle East and Asia partially replaced the volumes lost from Russia, where restrictions were in place. Additionally, seasonal factors played a role: the conclusion of peak summer gasoline demand allowed for the accumulation of reserve volumes. As a result, in key markets (North America, Europe), wholesale prices for gasoline and diesel have returned to early summer 2025 levels. It is expected that winter consumption of distillates (diesel, fuel oil) will increase for heating needs, but stable oil prices do not forecast sharp spikes in fuel costs.
- Russian Fuel Market: Domestically, the situation has stabilized after the September gasoline crisis. The Russian government implemented emergency measures: a ban on the export of automotive gasoline was introduced, and the export of diesel fuel was significantly restricted, with oil companies instructed to prioritize the domestic market. These steps produced quick results – by November, wholesale prices on the exchange had noticeably decreased from their peaks, and retail prices at gas stations ceased to rise. The shortage of Ai-92 and Ai-95 gasoline in affected regions has been eliminated, with stations being supplied with the necessary resource. Authorities have extended the ban on gasoline exports until the end of December to consolidate stability, while simultaneously developing long-term mechanisms to prevent similar crises (adjustment of the damping mechanism, encouraging refineries to increase fuel production in the offseason, etc.). Overall, oil refining in Russia has restored previous volumes, allowing for confident passage through the winter period without supply disruptions for consumers.
Thus, as of November 19, 2025, the oil and gas and energy markets are characterized by relatively moderate prices and stable supply, despite ongoing sanction risks and weather challenges. Investors and industry participants closely monitor the situation's developments – from OPEC+ decisions and winter weather forecasts to the outcomes of international negotiations and climate summits – as these factors will determine energy price dynamics and the industry's condition in the near months.
