Global Oil and Gas and Energy News as of December 5, 2025: Oil and Gas Price Dynamics, OPEC+ Policy, Sanctions, European and Asian Energy Markets, Russian Fuel and Energy Complex, Renewables, and Coal. Analysis for Investors and Industry Participants.
Current events in the fuel and energy complex (FEC) as of December 5, 2025, show mixed dynamics across global markets amidst cautious hopes for peacemaking and persistent risks of oversupply. Global oil prices remain near multi-month lows: Brent crude is fluctuating around $62–63 per barrel, while American WTI is around $59. These levels are significantly lower than mid-year figures and reflect a combination of factors ranging from expectations of progress in peace negotiations to signs of excess supply. Conversely, the European gas market is entering winter relatively confidently: underground gas storage (UGS) facilities in EU countries are over 85% full, providing a substantial buffer, while wholesale prices (TTF index) remain below €30 per MWh, which is significantly lower than peaks in previous years.
Geopolitical tensions surrounding energy continue to escalate. The West is intensifying sanctions on the Russian energy sector – the European Union recently legally approved a phased end to Russian gas imports by 2027 and an accelerated reduction of remaining oil supplies from Russia. Attempts at diplomatic resolution of the conflict have not yet yielded tangible results, thus the restrictions and risks to supplies remain. Within Russia, authorities are extending emergency measures to stabilize the domestic fuel market after an autumn deficiency in gasoline and diesel, strictly limiting the export of petroleum products. Simultaneously, global energy is accelerating the "green" transition: investments in renewables are reaching record levels, and new incentives are being introduced, although traditional resources – oil, gas, and coal – continue to play a key role in the energy balance of most countries. Full analytics of the situation is available for investors and industry participants.
Oil Market: Hopes for Peace and Oversupply Pressure Prices
As of early December, oil prices remain under pressure and exhibit volatility near local lows. North Sea Brent crude, after relative stability in the autumn, has fallen to about $62 per barrel, while WTI futures have dropped to $59. Current quotes are approximately 15% lower than levels a year ago. The market is factoring in a potential easing of restrictions on Russian oil should peace talks between Moscow and Washington succeed, reducing the geopolitical premium in prices. At the same time, fears of oversupply are increasing: industry data shows rising inventories of crude oil and fuels, and the seasonal decline in demand at year-end, coupled with a slowing Chinese economy, is limiting consumption. The oil alliance OPEC+ confirmed at a November 30 meeting that current production quotas would be maintained through the end of 2026, signaling a reluctance to increase supply and risk price collapse. Consequently, the cumulative impact of these factors has shifted the market balance towards oversupply. Prices remain at low levels while market participants assess the prospects for a peace agreement and OPEC+'s next steps in response to changing conditions.
Gas Market: Winter Begins with Comfortable Inventories and Moderate Prices
The European natural gas market is entering the peak heating season without major upheavals. Thanks to timely fuel injections and a mild winter start, EU countries greet December with significantly filled gas storage and relatively low prices. This reduces the threat of a repeat of the crisis events of 2022. Key factors shaping the current situation in the European gas market include:
- High UGS Filling Rates: According to industry monitoring, the average level of gas storage filling in the EU exceeds 85%, which is significantly above the norm for the beginning of winter. Accumulated reserves create a reliable "safety cushion" in case of prolonged cold spells and supply disruptions.
- Record LNG Imports: European consumers continue to actively purchase liquefied natural gas on the global market. Weaker demand for LNG in Asia has freed up additional volumes for Europe, partially compensating for the shortfall from pipeline supplies from Russia. As a result, LNG inflow remains high, helping to keep prices at moderate levels.
- Moderate Demand and Diversification: Mild weather at the start of winter and energy-saving measures are restraining gas consumption growth. At the same time, the EU is diversifying its sources: gas imports from Norway, North Africa, and other regions have increased, enhancing energy security and reducing dependence on Russian supplies.
- Price Stabilization: Wholesale gas prices are now nearly three times lower than the extreme peaks of last year. The Dutch TTF index remains around €28–30 per MWh. Storage loading and market balancing have allowed for the avoidance of new price spikes even amid reduced gas imports from Russia.
Thus, Europe enters winter with a substantial buffer in the gas market. Even in case of a cold snap, accumulated reserves and flexible supply chains through LNG are capable of mitigating potential shocks. However, in the long run, the situation will depend on weather conditions and global demand, especially if energy requirements in Asia start to rise again.
Russian Market: Fuel Shortages and Extension of Export Restrictions
In autumn 2025, Russia faced an intensifying problem of motor fuel (gasoline and diesel) shortages in the domestic market due to the overlap of several factors. Increased seasonal demand (the harvest campaign boosted fuel consumption) coincided with reduced supply from oil refineries, some of which curbed output due to unscheduled repairs and drone attacks on infrastructure. In several regions, gasoline supply disruptions occurred, forcing the government to intervene promptly to stabilize the situation. Authorities implemented emergency measures which continue to be in effect:
- Gasoline Export Ban: The Russian government in late August imposed a temporary complete ban on the export of motor gasoline by all producers and traders (except for supplies under intergovernmental agreements). Initially, this measure was set until October, but it has now been extended until at least December 31, 2025, due to ongoing tension in the domestic fuel market.
- Diesel Export Restrictions: Simultaneously, until the end of the year, the export of diesel fuel for independent traders has been prohibited. Oil companies with their own refineries retain the capability for limited export of diesel fuel to avoid halting processing. This partial ban aims to ensure sufficient supplies of petroleum products within the country and prevent a recurrence of shortages.
According to statements from relevant officials, the fuel crisis that emerged in autumn is local and temporary. Reserve stocks have been utilized, and oil refining is gradually recovering from unscheduled downtime. By the start of winter, the situation has stabilized somewhat: wholesale prices for gasoline and diesel have retreated from September peaks, although they are still higher than last year’s levels. The government's priority remains complete provision of the domestic market and prevention of a new price surge, therefore strict export restrictions may be extended into 2026 if necessary.
Sanctions and Policy: Escalating Western Pressure and Searching for Compromises
The collective West continues to tighten its policy towards the Russian FEC, showing no signs of easing sanctions. On December 4, EU leaders finalized a plan for the complete and indefinite cessation of imports of Russian pipeline gas by the end of 2026 (with LNG purchases ceasing by 2027) as part of a new sanctions package. This step aims to deprive Moscow of a significant part of its export income in the medium term. Hungary and Slovakia, traditionally dependent on Russian raw materials, have opposed the initiative, but their objections were unable to block the overall decision of the EU.
Simultaneously, the United States is intensifying its own pressure. President Donald Trump's administration takes a hard line against countries cooperating with Russia in the energy sector. Specifically, Washington imposed higher tariffs on a number of Indian goods in 2025 partially in response to India's purchases of Russian oil, and signaled a review of easing conditions for Venezuela. These moves create uncertainty around future Venezuelan oil supplies to the global market. Meanwhile, direct negotiations between Moscow and Washington regarding conflict cessation have not yielded significant progress – recent consultations in Moscow involving American emissaries ended without breakthroughs. Fighting in Ukraine continues, and all previously implemented restrictions on Russian energy exports remain in place. Western companies continue to avoid new investments in Russia. Thus, the geopolitical standoff surrounding energy persists, adding long-term risks and uncertainties to the market.
Asia: India and China Bet on Energy Security
The major developing economies in Asia – India and China – continue to focus on securing their own energy security while balancing the benefits of cheap imports with external pressure. Asian countries are actively seizing opportunities to purchase energy commodities on favorable terms while concurrently developing domestic projects and cooperation. The current situation is as follows:
- India: Under Western pressure, New Delhi temporarily reduced purchases of Russian oil in late autumn; however, overall, India remains one of Moscow's key clients. Indian refineries continue to process discounted Urals oil to cover domestic fuel needs, while surplus petroleum products are directed for export. President Vladimir Putin arrived for a visit to India on December 4, underscoring the close ties between the countries. It is expected that on December 5, at a summit in New Delhi, the parties will discuss new agreements for long-term oil supplies and possible projects in the gas sector. Russia is also seeking to increase imports of Indian goods to balance trade, notwithstanding U.S. sanctions pressure (including high tariffs on Indian exports due to cooperation with Russia in the energy sector).
- China: Despite economic slowdown, Beijing maintains a vital role in the global energy market. Chinese companies are diversifying their import channels: additional long-term contracts for purchasing liquefied natural gas (including with Qatar and the United States) are being signed, and pipeline gas supplies from Central Asia are expanding, alongside increased investments in overseas oil and gas production. Simultaneously, China is gradually ramping up its own hydrocarbon production, although this is still insufficient to fully meet domestic demand. The country continues to engage in substantial coal purchases aiming to secure its energy system during the transition period. Both India and China are actively investing in the development of renewable energy, but over the next few years do not intend to abandon traditional sources – oil, gas, and coal – which continue to form the basis of their energy balance.
Renewable Energy: Record Investments Supported by Governments
The global transition to clean energy continues to gain momentum, setting new records for investments and capacity deployment. According to estimates from the International Energy Agency (IEA), global investments in renewable energy exceeded $2 trillion in 2025 – more than twice the total investment in the oil and gas sector during the same period. The main stream of capital is directed towards the construction of solar and wind power plants, as well as supporting infrastructure – high-voltage networks and storage systems. At the COP30 climate summit, world leaders reaffirmed their commitment to accelerate greenhouse gas emissions reductions and significantly increase renewable energy capacity by 2030. To achieve these goals, a comprehensive set of initiatives is proposed:
- Accelerating Permitting Procedures: Reduce processing times and simplify the issuance of permits for the construction of renewable energy facilities, network modernization, and the implementation of other low-carbon projects.
- Expanding Government Support: Introduce additional incentives for "green" energy – special tariffs, tax exemptions, subsidies, and government guarantees to attract more investments and reduce risks for businesses.
- Financing Transition in Developing Countries: Increase the volume of international financial aid to emerging market economies for accelerated deployment of renewables where domestic resources are scarce. Targeted funds are being established to lower the costs of "green" projects in the most vulnerable regions.
The rapid growth of renewable energy is already leading to shifts in the global energy balance. According to analytical centers, non-carbon sources (renewable energy and nuclear generation) account for over 40% of electricity generation worldwide, and this share is steadily growing. Experts note that while short-term fluctuations may arise due to weather conditions or consumption spikes, the long-term trend is clear: clean energy is gradually replacing fossil fuels, bringing us closer to the onset of a new low-carbon era.
Coal: High Demand Supports the Market, but Peak Is Near
Despite global decarbonization efforts, the global coal market in 2025 remains one of the largest in history. Global coal consumption is holding at record levels – approximately 8.8–8.9 billion tons per year, slightly exceeding last year's figures. Demand continues to grow in the developing economies of Asia (primarily India and Southeast Asian countries), compensating for a decrease in coal usage in Europe and North America. According to the IEA, global coal consumption even slightly decreased in the first half of 2025 due to increased output from renewables and mild weather, but a slight increase (~1%) is expected by the end of the year. Thus, 2025 will mark the third consecutive year of near-record coal burning levels.
Coal production is also increasing – especially in China and India, which are ramping up domestic output to reduce import dependence. Prices for thermal coal generally remain stable, as high Asian demand maintains market balance. Nevertheless, analysts believe that global demand for coal has reached a "plateau" and will gradually decline in the coming years as renewable energy development accelerates and climate policies tighten.
