Key News in the Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector as of 17 November 2025: Sanctions Shift Trade Flows, Cold Weather Impacts Gas Reserves, Renewable Energy Share Grows. Analysis of Trends and Forecasts for Investors and Energy Market Participants.
Current events in the fuel and energy complex as of 17 November 2025 are unfolding against a backdrop of conflicting trends, attracting the attention of investors and market participants. Geopolitical tension remains high: the West is expanding sanctions against the Russian oil and gas sector, necessitating a recalibration of hydrocarbon trade flows. Meanwhile, certain conflicts are showing signs of de-escalation – a ceasefire continues to hold in the Middle East, and the US and China are maintaining a temporary trade truce, which improves global demand forecasts. Oil prices have stabilized at moderate levels following a recent downturn, with Brent trading around $63–65 per barrel and American WTI near $59–61. These levels are significantly below summer peaks and about 10% lower than figures a month ago, reflecting expectations of an oil surplus by year-end. Traders anticipate a scenario where supply in Q4 will exceed demand, restraining price growth. At the same time, factors preventing a deeper price drop remain - the market is factoring in sanction risks and potential supply disruptions.
Oil Market: Surplus Persists, Export Flows Shift
The global oil market continues to balance in a state of fragile equilibrium. By mid-November, oil prices had stabilized after a fall in autumn: Brent crude is trading around $63–65 per barrel, and WTI is near $59–61. These levels are significantly lower than the summer peaks and around 10% less than a month ago, reflecting expectations of an oil surplus by year-end. Traders expect a scenario where supply will exceed demand in Q4, curbing price increases. At the same time, factors preventing prices from falling further are present, as the market incorporates sanction risks and potential supply disruptions.
- Production Increases Amid Slowing Demand. OPEC+ countries are set to increase oil production in line with their schedule (a rise of 137,000 barrels per day is expected in December, followed by a pause until April). Outside the alliance, leading producers like the US and Brazil have reached record production levels, increasing supply. However, global oil consumption growth is slowing: according to recent forecasts, global demand is expected to rise by less than 0.8 million barrels per day in 2025 (compared to +2 million barrels per day in 2023) due to an economic slowdown and energy-saving measures.
- Sanctions and Redistribution of Flows. New US and UK sanctions against subsidiaries of Russia's largest oil companies (such as Rosneft and LUKOIL) are coming into effect, complicating Russian oil exports. Moscow is forced to redirect supplies to alternative markets. Under pressure from Western partners, Indian refiners have announced plans to significantly cut purchases of Russian oil beginning late November to comply with sanctions. The potential loss of one of the key buyers – India – could radically reshape global raw material flows, intensifying competition for markets. Russian exporters are already offering oil at deeper discounts in an effort to retain Asian customers.
- Geopolitical Risks Support Prices. Armed conflicts continue to threaten the stability of energy supplies. The confrontation over Ukraine is far from resolved: in mid-November, a Ukrainian drone attack on the port of Novorossiysk damaged oil infrastructure, causing a temporary halt in shipments and a price spike of over 2%. Tensions in the Middle East have somewhat eased due to the ceasefire, but the situation remains fragile. Such risks create a sort of "geopolitical premium" in the market, preventing prices from declining further.
Gas Market: Buffer Stock and Cold Weather Tests
The situation in the gas market is defined by seasonal balancing between high stock levels and weather challenges. Europe is entering the heating season with storage facilities filled to around 80-82% on average—significantly lower than last year's record of 92%, but still providing a substantial margin of safety. Thanks to a mild autumn, European gas prices earlier dropped to comfortable lows: the TTF front-month futures recently fell to about €30 per MWh (approximately $10 per million BTUs), the lowest level since spring 2024. However, the forecasted cold snap is returning volatility to the market: as winter frost approaches, prices have bounced back from the recent lows and begun to rise.
- High Stocks vs. Increased Consumption. Meteorologists are warning of a sharp temperature drop in Western Europe (5-7 °C below normal), which will significantly increase heating gas consumption over the coming week. If winter proves harsh and long, European stocks could be depleted faster than usual, potentially triggering a new round of price increases and necessitating increased gas imports.
- The Role of LNG in the Balance. Liquefied natural gas remains a key source for meeting the EU's needs following a sharp decline in pipeline supplies from Russia. LNG imports to Europe remain high, supported by record exports from the US, Qatar, and other producers. Meanwhile, gas demand in Asia remains moderate: the economic slowdown in China and full storage facilities in East Asia mean that there has been little competition between Europe and Asia for LNG this autumn. This balance in the global LNG market has helped keep European prices from experiencing sharp fluctuations.
Electric Power Sector: Record Renewables and Energy System Reliability
The global power sector is undergoing massive structural changes related to the rise of renewable energy sources and modernization of power grids. Throughout 2025, many countries have recorded unprecedented levels of electricity generation from renewables, gradually displacing coal generation. According to analyst estimates, in the first half of 2025, global renewable generation surpassed coal generation for the first time. In several developed countries, the share of solar and wind energy at certain times reaches 80-100% of consumption (in specific hours in Europe). Similar trends are seen in major economies in Asia (China, India) and North America (the US, Canada), signifying the successes of the global energy transition. At the same time, such rapid growth in renewables presents new challenges for ensuring the reliability of the energy system during the transition.
- Reliability of Energy Supply. The variable nature of wind and solar generation necessitates accelerated development of energy storage systems and backup capacities. Gas and coal power plants are currently used to cover peak loads during winter hours, although their role is gradually decreasing. In countries with developed energy systems, the existing backup capacity is expected to be sufficient even during anomalous cold spells, although prices for electricity may rise during peak periods. Energy companies are actively investing in modernizing grids and industrial storage systems to maintain supply reliability as the share of renewables increases.
- Government Policy and New Technologies. Governments worldwide support the decarbonization of the energy sector. The EU has set new ambitious renewable energy targets for 2030; China and India are implementing large-scale programs to build solar and wind power plants; and the US is rolling out updated measures to incentivize clean energy. Concurrently, there is growing interest in "clean" nuclear energy and hydrogen technologies as key elements of future energy systems. Thus, the energy sector is moving toward a more sustainable model: "green" capacities are increasing, infrastructure is being updated, and measures are being implemented to maintain supply stability during the transition period.
Coal Sector: Demand Plateau, Oversupply Pressures Prices
The coal industry has reached a turning point: global demand has stabilized around a historical peak and is beginning to gradually decline, while production remains high. Traditional industry markets are feeling increasing pressure from environmental regulations and competition from cheap renewables.
- Peak Consumption Reached. Global coal consumption is estimated to have reached a record ~8.8 billion tonnes in 2024, but growth has stalled in 2025. Global forecasts indicate a move toward a "plateau" in 2025-2026, followed by a decline in demand as climate policies tighten and renewable energy development accelerates.
- Supply Excess and Price Decline. Coal production is still being maintained at maximum levels, leading to the emergence of excess inventories in the market. Global coal prices have dropped to their lowest levels in recent years, squeezing the profitability of coal companies. Exporters facing high costs (including several Russian enterprises) are experiencing particular difficulties. The market is responding: many producers are reducing output and investments in an effort to adapt to the new realities.
Refining and Fuel Market: Market Stabilization and Price Control
Following the turbulence at the beginning of autumn, the global oil products market shows signs of stabilization. A decrease in oil prices and seasonal declines in fuel demand (with the end of the summer driving season) have allowed refineries to increase production and replenish stocks of gasoline and diesel. In Europe and the US, wholesale prices of petroleum products have retreated from September peaks, leading to moderate cost reductions for end consumers. The situation in the internal market of Russia, which faced acute gasoline shortages in September, has also normalized thanks to emergency measures taken by authorities.
- Anti-Crisis Measures in Russia. The Russian government temporarily banned the export of gasoline and diesel fuel while simultaneously increasing subsidies to refiners in order to direct more resources to the domestic market. These steps quickly eliminated the shortage: fuel production has returned to pre-crisis levels, gas stations are supplied with fuel, and wholesale prices have begun to decline. Authorities have stated their intention to gradually lift export restrictions as market stability is restored.
- Global Stabilization of Fuel Prices. In autumn, the global oil products market received a respite. Increased exports of gasoline and diesel from OPEC and Asian countries partially compensated for the volumes lost from Russia, while seasonal decreases in consumption allowed for fuel stocks to be replenished. Gasoline and diesel prices in major regions have returned to levels seen at the beginning of summer: in Europe and the US, fuel has significantly decreased in price compared to September highs. It is expected that winter will traditionally see an increase in demand for diesel and heating fuel, but with stable oil prices, sharp fluctuations in the prices of petroleum products are not anticipated.
