Latest News in Oil, Gas, and Energy as of November 18, 2025: Oil and Gas Prices, EU Sanctions, Production, Exports, Fuel Market, Power Generation, Renewable Energy, and the Coal Sector. Analytics for Investors and Energy Companies.
As of mid-November 2025, global energy markets are showing a mixed dynamic. Oil prices are under pressure due to oversupply, with Brent quotes holding around $64 per barrel (WTI at approximately $60), close to the lows of recent months. The increase in production by OPEC+ countries and their partners is outpacing moderate demand, creating a surplus of oil in the market. At the same time, the European gas market is experiencing a price lull – exchange prices for gas have dropped to one-and-a-half-year lows (around $380 per thousand cubic meters) thanks to full storage facilities and mild weather conditions. In Russia, unprecedented measures have been adopted to stabilize the domestic fuel market after a summer spike in gasoline prices. On the geopolitical level, sanctions pressure is intensifying: the European Union and the United States are discussing new restrictions on oil and gas exports, although their implementation faces challenges. This overview presents the current news and trends in the oil and gas markets, the situation in Russia's fuel and energy complex, as well as developments in the coal, electricity, and renewable energy sectors.
Oil Market
November sees prevailing bearish sentiments in the oil market. Following a brief rise last week, prices are declining again: Brent is within the $60-$65 per barrel range, indicating weak demand. Investors note that global oil supplies have increased significantly more than consumption: since the start of the year, total supply has risen by approximately 6 million barrels per day (primarily due to increased production from OPEC+ countries), while demand growth has been much more modest. As a result, global fuel reserves are high, and the market is facing a surplus, putting downward pressure on quotes.
Additional uncertainty arises from risks surrounding the export of Russian oil. Late last week, a drone attack temporarily disrupted operations at the oil terminal in Novorossiysk, causing a brief spike in prices; however, the quick restoration of operations alleviated this tension – by the start of the new week, Brent returned to a downward trend near $64. Thus, even geopolitical incidents are currently only having short-term effects on the market, yielding to fundamental factors. Market participants are also assessing the impact of sanctions: despite the tightening of Western restrictions, exports from Russia remain stable due to the redirection to alternative channels and discounts for buyers.
- OPEC+ Policy: Exporters from the OPEC+ alliance maintain their commitment to a gradual recovery in production, which they have been implementing since the beginning of the year. By the end of 2025, countries have fully returned most of the volumes previously voluntarily restricted to the market. OPEC+ representatives recently stated that they retain the freedom for further voluntary adjustments to production in 2026 – meaning they are prepared to cut supply again if the market situation deteriorates (for example, if prices fall below an acceptable level). For now, however, key producers indicate that they will not rush to implement new production cuts as long as prices remain above critical thresholds ($50 and above).
- Demand and Reserves: Weak macroeconomic conditions are restraining the growth of oil consumption. China's economic slowdown, high interest rates in the US and Europe, and other factors are limiting global demand for crude. Nonetheless, demand remains resilient in certain segments: the winter heating season is beginning, supporting demand for oil products, while the global aviation sector and road transport are showing gradual growth. The previously record-high summer demand (from tourism and automotive transportation) prevented prices from collapsing further. However, due to accumulated reserves in key regions (the US, China, Europe) and increased exports from some supplier countries (including Iran and Venezuela), price pressure remains.
- Geopolitics and Sanctions: Global risks remain present, but their influence on prices is limited. Armed conflicts and tensions in the Middle East create moderate price premiums, but no significant supply disruptions are occurring. Western countries continue to tighten sanctions on the Russian oil sector: the EU approved a ban on the import of oil products produced from Russian oil in third countries last summer (with some exceptions), which will take effect in February 2026, effectively closing off supply routes to Europe. Additionally, new measures are being discussed – including imposing restrictions on any refineries purchasing Russian oil in recent months, although the implementation of such ideas faces technical difficulties and resistance from some businesses. For its part, the US administration has taken a tougher stance: President Donald Trump has expressed readiness to support a bill introducing sanctions against countries trading with Russia and threatened similar measures against Iran. Although such radical steps have not yet been implemented, the very rhetoric adds to long-term uncertainty for oil exporters. Nevertheless, Russian oil continues to find its way to global markets – analysts note that buyers in Asia and the Middle East are confidently absorbing volumes redirected from Europe, even if it requires additional discounts.
Natural Gas Market
The gas market remains relatively calm this autumn. In Europe, gas prices have fallen to their lowest levels in the past ~18 months: approximately $370-$380 per thousand cubic meters based on the TTF index, significantly lower than last winter's peaks. This is due to a combination of ample supply and moderate demand. Storage facilities in European countries were filled at record early levels and currently remain nearly 90% full as of mid-November, providing a buffer heading into the heating season. Mild weather in Europe in the first half of autumn and an increase in renewable energy generation have also reduced the need for gas withdrawal from reserves, allowing the market to remain stable.
A factor of stability has also been the reliable inflow of LNG imports. European importers continue to actively receive liquefied gas from various sources – from the US and Qatar to Africa and Asia. New liquefaction projects in the US and the Middle East are expanding global capacities, creating a supply buffer. Alternative pipeline supplies also persist: Norway, Algeria, and other North African countries are continuously exporting gas to the EU, compensating for the near-total cessation of direct imports from Russia. The transit of Russian gas through Ukraine is now minimal, and supplies via the southern route (through Turkey and the Balkans) are limited in volume, only meeting the needs of individual Eastern European states. In total, the diversification of sources allowed Europe to get through last winter without fuel shortages, and at present, the market looks to the winter of 2025/26 with relative confidence.
- European Balance: Thanks to early accumulation of reserves and decreased consumption, the European gas balance appears stable. According to industry monitoring, by the start of the heating season, EU underground gas storage facilities were filled to nearly 95%, which is above average historical levels. Gas consumption in Europe, which decreased in 2022-2023 due to the energy crisis, stabilized and even showed small growth in 2025 (approximately +5% year-on-year for the first half of the year due to industrial recovery and hot weather). However, the current level of demand remains below pre-crisis levels – businesses are implementing energy efficiency measures and households are conserving energy due to previously high prices. This means that even with moderate demand growth, current reserves should be sufficient to cope with winter peaks.
- Global LNG: The liquefied natural gas market continues to play a key role in meeting the needs of Europe and Asia. In 2025, new LNG export capacities are being introduced – both in the US and in Gulf countries – increasing the volume of available fuel in the market. Supplier competition is intensifying, and spot prices for LNG remain relatively low for this season. Asian markets are currently showing balanced demand: in Northeast Asia, LNG reserves have also been accumulated, and the lack of extreme cold at the beginning of winter is not causing price spikes. This allows additional tankers to be directed to Europe if necessary. Meanwhile, major consumers like China are signing long-term contracts for LNG supply, laying the foundation for future price stability.
- Russia and New Routes: The Russian gas industry continues to reorient its exports eastward. Supplies of pipeline gas to Europe have dropped to historic lows (essentially remaining only through the remaining Ukrainian corridor and "Turkish Stream" for individual countries), while exports to Asia are increasing. In 2025, Gazprom increased throughput through the Power of Siberia pipeline to China to record levels, approaching design capacity to meet the growing demand from Chinese consumers. Simultaneously, Russia is developing its LNG projects on the Arctic shelf: the first phase of the Arctic LNG-2 plant was launched at the end of last year, and in 2025, new capacities targeted primarily at Southeast Asian markets are being gradually rolled out. These steps aim to compensate for the lost European market and ensure that extraction companies have work. While transporting gas to new regions involves logistical and pricing challenges, Russia is strengthening its presence in the Asian direction by signing long-term contracts with China, India, and other importers.
Domestic Fuel Market in Russia
After the summer crisis in the domestic oil product market, the situation is gradually normalizing. Recall that prices for automotive fuel in Russia sharply rose at the end of summer, reaching record levels due to supply shortages and increasing export costs due to a weak ruble. To stabilize the situation, the government had to take tough emergency measures: a temporary ban on gasoline exports and some diesel fuel shipments was imposed at the end of July to redirect maximum volumes to the domestic market and saturate gas stations. Initially, the restrictions applied to traders and small refineries, but later they were expanded – the ban on gasoline exports even extended to large producers, and diesel fuel exports outside the Eurasian Union were limited for all except direct oil companies, under the condition of monitoring domestic supplies.
By mid-November, it can be stated that the measures taken have had a noticeable effect. Wholesale fuel prices on the St. Petersburg Exchange have significantly retreated from peak levels in September, and retail prices at gas stations have stopped rising. According to Rosstat, average gasoline prices in Russia even slightly decreased in the first half of November – the first decline in over a year. In regions that were most affected during the summer (for example, in the southern regions and Crimea), supply has normalized: disruptions in supplies of Ai-95 and Ai-92 gasoline have been eliminated, and reserves are sufficient for current consumption. The government has extended the temporary ban on gasoline exports until December 31, 2025, to consolidate market stability during the autumn-winter period. At the same time, authorities are working on long-term mechanisms to prevent fuel crises – from adjusting the damping formula and excise policy to encouraging refiners to increase fuel production during the off-season.
- Anti-Crisis Measures: To overcome the fuel crisis, Russian authorities have employed a number of tools. A complete ban on the export of automotive gasoline has been implemented, and the export of diesel fuel and fuel oil has been significantly restricted. Oil companies are mandated to prioritize meeting the needs of the domestic market. Minimum sales standards for fuel through the exchange have also been increased to ensure that small wholesalers and independent gas stations have access to resources. These measures were accompanied by agreements with major refineries to increase oil processing and supply to the domestic market, especially to remote regions with fuel shortages.
- Market Stabilization: By October-November, the trend had shifted – price growth stopped. Exchange quotes for "Regular-92" and "Premium-95" gasoline decreased by tens of percent from the September highs. Following wholesale, prices at gas stations also began to stabilize: in several regions, a decrease in gasoline prices by 10-30 kopecks per liter was recorded. Gas station networks report sufficient fuel reserves, elimination of queues, and a return of demand to normal levels. Thus, the domestic oil product market has entered winter in a balanced state, without signs of shortages.
- Outlook and Regulation: The unprecedented restrictions on fuel exports are temporary. The official ban on gasoline exports is in place until the end of 2025, and the government will decide on its extension or cancellation based on the situation. At the same time, long-term measures are being considered: the introduction of a protective duty on exports of petroleum products, which will automatically restrain exports during spikes in global prices; improving the damping mechanism of compensation for oil producers to make it more profitable for them to supply to the domestic market; and increasing reserve fuel stocks at state oil bases. Also in focus is the modernization of refineries and logistics for supplies to remote regions to eliminate local disruptions. Energy market participants expect that a combination of market incentives and government control will prevent a recurrence of the crisis next spring and summer.
Government Policy and Cooperation
Russian authorities continue to implement a long-term energy strategy, adapting the fuel and energy complex to the new realities of sanctions pressure and global energy transition. In 2025, the focus is on supporting the oil and gas sector with investment incentives and expanding cooperation with friendly countries. Despite external constraints, the government aims to ensure the sustainable development of the sector and reach new markets.
- Tax Incentives for the Industry: The Russian government is currently finalizing a package of measures aimed at reducing the tax burden on oil and gas companies and stimulating the development of new fields. Among the measures under discussion are the expansion of the application of the profit-based tax (PBET) for new oil and gas production projects, extending tax breaks on mineral extraction tax (MET) for hard-to-reach and depleted fields, as well as a temporary reduction in export duties on raw materials for projects in priority regions. These concessions are expected to come into effect in 2026 and help companies maintain investments even under sanctions and limited access to foreign capital.
- Diversification and New Projects: One of the strategic goals is the diversification of the energy sector. The state is stimulating the development of new segments – from liquefied natural gas (LNG) production and petrochemical production to hydrogen energy and equipment manufacturing for renewable energy. In 2025, funding continued for infrastructure to increase LNG exports (construction of terminals in the Far East and the North), as well as projects for the extraction of rare earth metals and components needed for renewable energy technologies. Simultaneously, Russia is investing in its own extraction and processing technologies to reduce dependence on imported equipment and services. This pivot aims to enhance the resilience of the fuel and energy sector in the face of external constraints and to increase competitiveness in the global energy resource market.
- International Cooperation: Amid limitations on interaction with Europe, Russia is actively strengthening energy ties with partners in Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America. Throughout the year, new agreements have been signed for the supply of oil and oil products with several countries: India continues to increase purchase of Russian oil on a long-term basis, China is boosting LNG imports and participating in financing large projects (e.g., the construction of petrochemical complexes in Russia), and Gulf states are investing in joint extraction projects. Furthermore, Russia and OPEC+ maintain close coordination: regular consultations with Saudi Arabia and other participants allow for joint market management. These partnerships help the Russian fuel and energy complex redirect flows of energy resources, seek new markets, and compensate for lost revenues from the European market.
- Sanction Risks: Despite the efforts being made, external risks have not disappeared. As mentioned earlier, Western countries are considering the possibility of further tightening sanctions on Russian energy exports. While the US and EU are acting cautiously, fearing to undermine the global energy market with abrupt moves – experts estimate that Washington is unlikely to impose direct sanctions on Russian LNG at least until the end of the decade, to avoid triggering gas shortages among allies. Nevertheless, the rhetoric from certain politicians remains tough, creating uncertainty. Russian companies must account for scenarios involving potential secondary sanctions targeting buyers of Russian oil and gas in third countries. Such a development will require even deeper adjustments to export logistics and may affect new long-term contracts. In this context, Russian leadership aims to accelerate the formation of its own infrastructure (tanker fleet, insurance, service provision) to ensure uninterrupted exports even in the event of further complications in the external environment.
Coal Sector
The year 2025 is proving challenging for the Russian coal industry. Following the price surge of 2021-2022, the global coal market has entered a phase of decline, and this year quotes remain relatively low, sharply reducing the profitability of exports for Russian companies. Fierce competition in the Asian market and sanctions constraints in Europe have resulted in significant financial troubles for many Russian coal mining enterprises. Many mines are cutting production, and several companies are on the brink of halting operations. According to the Ministry of Energy, in 2024, the total losses of Russian coal companies exceeded 110 billion rubles, and the negative trend continues in the current year.
Nevertheless, the industry is attempting to adapt to the new conditions by redirecting supplies and cutting costs. The export of Russian coal is gradually shifting towards Asia, where there remains a certain demand for competitively priced raw materials from Russia. Although the European market is effectively closed to Russia, domestic coal producers are actively engaging with buyers in China, India, Turkey, and other countries. By the end of the year, the situation in the global market has slightly improved for suppliers: the onset of winter and declining production in certain regions (for instance, in China due to safety and environmental measures) have led to a slight rise in prices for energy coal. However, the current price levels still do not guarantee profitability for most Russian projects, especially considering rising logistics costs.
- Production Cutbacks: In the largest coal-producing region of Russia – Kuzbass – production continues to decline. In the first nine months of 2025, coal production in the Kemerovo region is estimated to have decreased by approximately 5-6% compared to the same period last year. Many companies have had to conserve unprofitable capacities, particularly in remote pits and mines with high costs. Export shipments are also fluctuating: according to the results of October 2025, shipments of Russian coal abroad decreased by 1% compared to the previous month to 17.3 million tons, although total exports since the beginning of the year remain slightly above last year's level (+3.6% over 10 months, thanks to high shipments at the beginning of the year). The decrease in demand for energy coal in traditional markets forces Russian producers to maintain low extraction levels and wait for a more favorable market environment.
- Coking Coal: The metallurgical (coking) coal segment is also facing difficulties. The global steel industry shows weak dynamics, particularly in China, which limits demand for coke and the raw materials needed for its production. The export of Russian coking coal by sea has decreased, and by autumn, volumes shipped through southern ports have dropped to multi-year lows. Analysts estimate that at current prices, over 20% of Russian coking coal producers are operating at a loss, while even the largest players in the sector are balancing around the breakeven point. This forces companies to reevaluate investment programs, delay the launch of new shafts, and focus on the most efficient assets.
- Asian Markets and New Opportunities: Despite the challenges, Russian coal is finding buyers in Asia, where its competitive price attracts certain consumers. Notably, in 2025, coal shipments to India increased significantly: in October, Russian coal exports to India rose by 43% compared to September and doubled the level of October 2024. Indian energy and metallurgy sectors took advantage of the drop in prices to purchase additional volumes that other players withdrew from. Furthermore, some unconventional buyers have shown interest – for example, Taiwan began trial purchases of Russian energy coal this year through Far Eastern ports, attracted by stable supply and discounts. China remains the largest Asian market: after a slight decrease in imports in the autumn due to high domestic reserves, demand in the northern provinces of China is rising again with the onset of cold weather, and market participants expect an increase in Russian coal purchases by China in November-December. Meanwhile, South Korea has reduced imports from Russia, returning to traditional suppliers (Australia), demonstrating the competitiveness of the market share battle. Overall, the industry's outlook hinges on two factors: first, the restoration of price balance through the reduction of unprofitable capacities (closure or temporary conservation of loss-making mines), and second, increasing demand in Asia, which could gradually lift prices. The Russian government is also tasked with developing support measures for the coal sector – from subsidizing transportation tariffs to preferential lending – to soften the social and economic consequences of the downturn in the industry.
Power Generation
Russia's power sector in 2025 faced atypical loads but demonstrated resilience. Anomalously hot summer weather led to historic peaks in electricity consumption in several regions: widespread use of air conditioners and cooling equipment pushed network loads to record levels. On July 14, the Unified Energy System of the South recorded an all-time high for summer electricity consumption – 21,219 MW, exceeding the previous record set the year before. Similar records were noted in other systems – almost all territorial energy systems set new summer demand records. Furthermore, during the winter of 2024/25, the country also experienced record loads, surpassing summer figures, indicating a general increase in energy consumption as the economy recovers and extreme weather events occur.
Despite the increased loads, the energy system successfully handled the challenges. Generating companies and dispatch services activated the necessary power reserves: hydropower plants boosted production during peak consumption hours, gas and coal thermal power plants were promptly brought to maximum output to meet demand, and electricity transmission networks operated without significant failures. Even on the hottest summer days, systemic outages were avoided – reserve capacity proved sufficient, confirming the reliability of the Russian Unified Energy System. In regions with particularly high loads (for instance, in the North Caucasus and Southern Russia), mobile gas turbine units were deployed, and energy transfers from neighboring regions were utilized. All this ensured uninterrupted power supply for consumers.
- Demand Records: The summer months of 2025 were marked by numerous new peaks in energy consumption. Heatwaves in July raised daily electricity consumption to unprecedented levels in many regions. Alongside the southern regions, significant growth in load was also recorded in Siberia and central areas – increased air conditioning use, cooling systems in enterprises, and higher industrial activity led to peak load hours exceeding last year's numbers by 5-7%. The system operator reported dozens of new historical highs recorded across the country from June to August. Overall electricity consumption in Russia for the first 10 months of 2025 grew by approximately 2% year-on-year, reflecting economic recovery and increased electricity intensity in certain sectors.
- Network Reliability: The Russian energy system demonstrates a high level of reliability even under extreme loads. During the summer, energy companies successfully managed peak loads through power reallocation and activation of reserves. For the autumn-winter period of 2025/26, meticulous preparations were made: repairs on key power plant units were completed, additional fuel reserves (coal, gas) were formed at thermal power plants, and emergency energy transfer modes between power systems were practiced. The Ministry of Energy forecasts that even in the case of anomalously cold weather in winter, generation and network capacities will suffice to cover demand without the need for limitation schedules. Special attention is given to southern regions, where another rise in winter consumption is expected – modernizing networks and installing new substations in Krasnodar Krai, Dagestan, and Crimea should prevent local outages. Overall, industry experts note that lessons from previous years have been learned: dispatch discipline has been strengthened, capacity maneuverability has been expanded, allowing for optimistic outlooks for the upcoming winter peak.
Renewable Energy
The renewable energy sector (RES) continues to experience rapid growth worldwide, reflecting the acceleration of the global energy transition. The year 2025 became another record year for the commissioning of new capacities: in many countries, massive solar and wind power plants are being launched, and investment in clean energy has reached historical highs. According to the International Energy Agency, global capital investments in renewable energy in 2025 exceeded investments in oil extraction for the first time: around $580 billion versus $540 billion, respectively. This indicates a shift in priorities – more and more countries and companies are betting on solar, wind, and other low-carbon technologies. China maintains its leadership in this area: the cumulative installed capacity of RES plants in China has already surpassed that of fossil fuel power stations, underscoring the scale of changes. The European Union is also increasing the share of "green" generation – by the end of the year, more than 40% of electricity in the EU is generated from renewable sources (hydropower, wind, solar, and biomass). Such achievements reduce demand for hydrocarbons in the energy sector and gradually lower the carbon intensity of the global economy.
In Russia, renewable energy is developing at a more modest pace but steadily. The initial effect of high oil and gas prices last year provided additional impetus for RES projects: the government and businesses recognized the importance of diversification. By the beginning of 2025, the total capacity of renewable generators (excluding large hydropower plants) reached ~6.6 GW compared to 6.5 GW the previous year. Throughout 2025, new solar and wind farms were commissioned in various regions – from the Astrakhan region and Stavropol Krai (wind farms) to the Sakha Republic (Yakutia), where small solar power stations for remote communities became operational. As a result, by the end of 2025, the total installed capacity of RES in Russia is expected to exceed 7.5 GW, representing an increase of approximately 15% over the year. Although these figures are not comparable to global leaders, the trend in Russia remains upward.
- Growth of RES in Russia: The Russian renewable energy sector is steadily increasing its volumes annually. Wind and solar photovoltaic stations constructed under support programs are gradually coming online, expanding the "green" segment. According to official data, in the first three quarters of 2025, electricity generation from RES in Russia grew by approximately 20% compared to the same period last year. The most significant contribution came from new wind farms in the southern part of the country and a large solar power station in the Orenburg region. Consequently, the share of RES (excluding hydropower) in Russia's overall energy balance is approaching 1.5-2%. While this is still a modest indicator, it is steadily increasing.
- Outlook and Support: The development of renewable energy is viewed by authorities as a priority for diversifying the fuel and energy complex and reducing the carbon footprint of the economy. A government program to stimulate RES (a supply contract scheme for RES capacity) has been extended until 2035, guaranteeing investors a return on investment conditioned on localizing equipment. It is expected that by 2030, the installed capacity of renewable sources may exceed 15 GW if all announced projects are implemented. Additionally, attention is being given to distributed energy: more and more enterprises and households are installing their own solar panels and small wind generators, particularly in regions that support microgeneration. International cooperation also plays a role – Russian companies are exploring the experience of leading countries in developing hydrogen energy and energy storage to integrate these technologies in the future. Ultimately, the steady increase in renewable energy strengthens energy security, opens new industries (manufacturing equipment for renewable energy), and improves environmental conditions.
