Current News in the Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector as of November 26, 2025: Oil, Gas, Renewable Energy, Energy Policy, Sanctions, Fuel and Energy Complex, Global Commodity Markets, Analytics, and Key Events of the Day.
Global Oil Market
Following a recent sell-off, oil prices are holding at their lowest levels in months. Brent crude is trading around $62–63 per barrel, while WTI is approximately $58. The market is under pressure from a combination of factors: a significant rise in U.S. oil inventories, cautious demand forecasts from the IEA and EIA, and geopolitical signals. Increased negotiations for a peaceful resolution to the conflict in Ukraine have alleviated concerns over supply disruptions and further dragged prices down.
- Inventories and Demand: According to the U.S. Department of Energy, commercial oil inventories in the country rose by 6.4 million barrels in the past week – significantly above expectations. Analysts note a risk of market oversupply: the IEA estimates that by 2026, global oil supply could exceed demand by approximately 4 million barrels per day, potentially leading to a substantial surplus.
- OPEC+ Decision: At the beginning of November, OPEC+ countries agreed to a minor increase in production – by 137,000 barrels per day in December, while opting to refrain from further quota increases in the first quarter of 2026 due to concerns about oversupply. Simultaneously, new Western sanctions complicate the growth of Russian output: U.S. and UK restrictions have hit "Rosneft" and "LUKOIL" hardest, stifling investments.
Sanctions and Russian Oil Exports
As of November 21, U.S. sanctions against major Russian oil companies came into force. These measures aimed at "Rosneft" and "LUKOIL" could theoretically remove up to 48 million barrels of Russian oil from the global market. Russian export flows have already encountered disruptions: several tankers carrying Urals and ESPO grades have been redirected or delayed. Indian refineries have begun chartering tankers for crude supplies from the Persian Gulf to replace lost Russian volumes.
Meanwhile, financial institutions in Asia are seeking ways to bypass the restrictions. According to sources, Indian banks have developed a special payment mechanism allowing them to pay for Russian oil in alternative currencies – UAE dirhams and Chinese yuan – provided the sellers are not under sanctions. Previously, some Indian refiners had temporarily paused purchases, but the increase in the discount on Urals to around $7 per barrel is prompting them to resume imports under new terms. The largest Indian refiner, Indian Oil, has already stated that it will continue to purchase crude from Russia from companies that are not subject to sanctions.
- Price Consequences: So far, the sanctions pressure has led to Russian oil being sold at record discounts, stimulating demand from Asian refiners for Urals grades. However, a complete ban by the European Union on importing oil products produced from Russian crude takes effect on January 16, which is expected to create a fuel market shortage and maintain high margins for alternative supply providers.
Diesel Market and Oil Products
The oil products market continues to experience tension: diesel fuel prices remain elevated. Over the past week, diesel prices have only slightly retreated, remaining about 8% higher than at the end of October. The main reason is the global diesel shortage. Russia, the world’s second-largest diesel exporter, has cut exports to record low levels amid sanctions and attacks on oil refineries. In October, Russian diesel exports fell to approximately 669,000 barrels per day – the lowest level since 2020. Previously, "Rosneft" and "LUKOIL" accounted for about 270,000 barrels of diesel per day (about 37% of Russian exports and 9% of global exports) – these volumes have now effectively fallen out of supply.
European and Asian refineries, previously reliant on cheap Russian crude, are forced to restructure their supply chains and reduce purchases from Russia. As a result, diesel refining margins have significantly increased. American refiners have ramped up diesel exports to Europe, increasing their profits from each barrel by approximately 12%. Even if there is a geopolitical thaw, it is unlikely that the EU will quickly lift restrictions on Russian energy supplies – consequently, the diesel shortage and high fuel prices will persist.
European Gas Market
Natural gas prices in Europe have continued to decline, reaching multi-year lows. On November 24, gas prices at the TTF hub for December delivery dropped below €30 per MWh (≈$355 per 1000 m³) – the first time since May 2024. The market is under pressure from optimism surrounding a potential peace plan for Ukraine. Market participants suggest that if progress is made on peace initiatives, the EU may ease its approach to purchasing Russian LNG, removing some of the “risk premium” from prices. It is important to note that before the conflict, Russia supplied up to 45% of the EU's gas imports, with this share now reduced to around 10%. Although Brussels officially aims to halt all imports of Russian gas by the end of 2027, several countries (such as Hungary and Slovakia) contest the stringent timeline.
- Inventories and Demand: Despite low prices, Europe is experiencing record rates of gas withdrawal from underground storage facilities. According to Gas Infrastructure Europe, from November 19 to 21, European countries withdrew unprecedented volumes of gas from UGS daily. By November 21, the storage level dropped below 80% – one of the lowest levels for this date in the last decade. In the event of prolonged cold weather, current inventories may not suffice to meet stable demand from residential and industrial consumers.
Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)
- Imports from the USA: In 2025, the European Union set a new record for purchasing American energy resources – approximately $200 billion, including liquefied natural gas, oil, and nuclear fuel. The share of the USA in the EU's LNG imports has grown to 60%. Brussels is actively concluding long-term contracts for the supply of American LNG, further reducing dependence on other sources.
- Projects and Risks: New challenges are emerging in the global LNG market. In Australia, workers' unions in the LNG sector have initiated a strike at the under-construction expansion facility at the Pluto plant (operated by Woodside Energy), demanding wage parity with the Wheatstone project. If the strike occurs, the commissioning of additional LNG export capacity will be delayed until at least the end of 2026. Such disruptions intensify tension in the gas market; strikes at Australian export terminals in 2023 have already caused price spikes due to the redirection of supply flows.
Energy Partnership between Russia and China
The VII Russian-Chinese Energy Business Forum has commenced in Beijing, marking a new phase of cooperation between the two countries in the fuel and energy sector. Chinese President Xi Jinping, in a welcoming message to participants, expressed readiness to deepen comprehensive energy partnership, emphasizing the contribution of bilateral cooperation to the stability of global energy chains. The Russian side highlighted China's impressive achievements: Igor Sechin, head of "Rosneft," referred to China as the only remaining "industrial superpower" in the world and a great energy power. According to him, China is shaping a new paradigm for global energy by combining traditional and alternative energy sources.
Examples of Chinese leadership in the sector are impressive. China's electricity generation now exceeds that of the USA by more than double (two decades ago, the opposite was true). China accounts for about one-third of all global investments in energy – expected to reach $900 billion in 2025, which is 30% higher than North America's total investments and 1.5 times that of Europe. Rapid electrification and technological development have propelled China to the top position in global energy consumption. To meet growing needs, Beijing is paying special attention to energy security and infrastructure.
A practical step towards developing cooperation has been progress in the gas sector. "Gazprom" and Chinese CNPC have begun joint construction of a cross-border section of the gas pipeline along the "Far Eastern" route – across the Ussuri River on the border of the two countries. This project is being implemented under a 2023 agreement and provides for the supply of up to 12 billion cubic meters of gas to China per year (after a recent increase in the planned volume from the initial 10 billion). To achieve this, a 25-kilometer branch will be constructed from the "Sakhalin – Khabarovsk – Vladivostok" main pipeline, equipped with a gas dehydration unit and a measurement station near Dalnerechensk. The launch of export supplies through the new pipeline is expected by the end of January 2027, which will strengthen the position of Russian gas in the Asian market.
Energy Policy and Renewable Sources
- COP30 (UN): At the COP30 climate summit in Brazil, participating countries failed to agree on a swift transition away from fossil fuels. The final declaration omitted a clause on the phased-out use of oil, gas, and coal, meaning there is no longer an official commitment to relinquish these fuel types. This wording became a compromise between states advocating for a gradual transition to clean energy and major hydrocarbon exporters defending their economic interests.
- G20 Declaration: Leaders of the "Group of Twenty" at the summit in Johannesburg focused heavily on energy security. In their joint statement, they underlined the necessity of stable fossil fuel supplies and indicated that sanction risks for the energy market should be accounted for. At the same time, G20 countries reaffirmed their commitment to climate goals: the document records a commitment to triple total renewable energy capacities and double the energy efficiency of the global economy by 2030.
- Renewable Projects: Despite political disagreements, various countries continue to implement "green" energy projects. In Germany, the company Statkraft has launched the country’s largest hybrid power plant, combining 46.4 MW of solar panels and a 57 MWh storage battery. The facility is capable of providing electricity to about 14,000 homes, reducing CO₂ emissions by approximately 32,000 tons per year. In India, ReNew Power secured $331 million from the Asian Development Bank to build a hybrid energy complex totalling 2.8 GW (solar and wind stations with energy storage units), capable of delivering 300 MW of stable "green" power 24/7. Such projects enhance the reliability of energy systems while advancing the global energy transition.
Major Deals and Investments
- Saudi Aramco: Saudi Arabia's state-owned oil company plans one of the largest deals in its history – selling stakes in export terminals and oil storage facilities. This operation is expected to attract over $10 billion, which will be directed towards production development, including the large gas project "Jafurah." Concurrently, Aramco continues its active investment program to expand oil and gas production capacity, adhering to a strategy of increasing its market presence.
Overall, towards the end of November 2025, global energy markets remain in a state of unstable equilibrium influenced by opposing factors. On one hand, progress in peace negotiations and strengthened international cooperation (for example, the deepening partnership between Russia and China) are reducing the geopolitical premium in prices and easing disruption risks. On the other hand, sanctions barriers and structural issues in specific segments (especially in the diesel fuel and gas markets) continue to support local shortages and high volatility. It is crucial for participants in the fuel and energy complex to monitor diplomatic initiatives, regulatory decisions, and major investment projects closely, as these will define the future dynamics of demand, supply, and prices in the sector.
