Current News in the Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector for Thursday, December 25, 2025. Oil, gas, electricity, renewable energy, coal, refineries, and key events in the global fuel and energy complex – a review and analysis for investors and market participants.
Today's review covers key developments in the global fuel and energy complex. Oil markets are closing the year relatively stable, aided by calculated actions from OPEC+ and an increase in supply, while geopolitical factors – from sanctions to attempts at peaceful settlement – continue to influence deliveries. The energy sector is witnessing record achievements in renewable and nuclear energy, while global coal demand is reaching a historical peak before an expected decline.
OPEC+ Maintains Production to Stabilize the Market
- It has been decided to maintain the current oil production quotas for the first quarter of 2026 to prevent a potential oversupply in the market.
- OPEC+ countries have already returned approximately 2.9 million barrels per day to the market from previously reduced volumes, yet an overall production cut of around 3.2 million barrels per day is still in effect until the end of 2026.
- The meeting took place against the backdrop of a new attempt by the US to reach a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine. OPEC+ is mindful that the success of negotiations and potential easing of sanctions could add additional oil volumes to the market, while failure would intensify sanction pressures and restrict Russian exports.
Oil Prices Remain Stable
Global oil prices are nearing the year's end without sharp fluctuations, settling in an average range. Brent is hovering around $62–63 per barrel, while WTI is around $58–59, reflecting a balance between stable demand and sufficient supply.
- At the beginning of the week, prices increased by approximately 2% amidst strong macroeconomic data from the US: GDP growth in Q3 surpassed expectations, stimulating fuel demand forecasts.
- Further price support came from supply disruption risks. New US sanctions against the Venezuelan oil sector and strikes on oil export infrastructure in the Black Sea heightened market concerns.
- However, by the end of 2025, Brent had declined by around 15%. The oil market exhibited an unusually narrow price corridor ($60–80) even amid geopolitical upheavals, thanks to record production in the US (over 13.5 million barrels/day) and increased deliveries from non-OPEC countries compensating for the shocks.
- Refineries ramped up product yields, and commercial oil and fuel stocks in the US increased in December. This kept gasoline and diesel prices from spiking at year's end.
Natural Gas: Comfortable Supplies and Moderate Prices
The natural gas market is entering winter relatively calmly. In Europe, wholesale gas prices have stabilized around €27 per MWh – the lowest since spring 2024 – due to high inventories and steady LNG inflow.
- EU underground gas storage facilities are over 70% full as winter begins, significantly above average historical norms, reducing the risk of shortages even in cold weather.
- LNG imports remain high, compensating for a halt in pipeline supplies from Russia. Major consumers (Germany, Italy, etc.) are actively procuring LNG on the spot market, diversifying their sources.
- In the US, natural gas prices (Henry Hub) are holding around $5 per million BTU. Record production levels and high LNG export volumes keep the American market balanced, although periods of anomalous cold trigger short-term price spikes.
Geopolitics and Sanctions: Impact on Energy Supply
Political conflicts and sanction restrictions continue to impact global energy markets, creating both supply disruption threats and expectations of improved conditions in the future.
- The US administration has tightened measures against the Venezuelan oil sector: tankers transporting Venezuelan oil have come under sanctions. In December, several vessels were intercepted and forced to return, threatening to overflow local storage and reduce production in the country.
- In light of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, strikes on energy infrastructure have increased. In November, a Ukrainian drone damaged the CPC pipeline terminal near Novorossiysk, reducing Kazakh oil exports of CPC Blend by a third in December (to approximately 1.14 million barrels/day) and forcing a redirection of some volumes to bypass the Black Sea.
- Despite the autumn intensification of US sanctions against leading Russian oil companies ("Rosneft" and "LUKOIL"), their effect on the global market has been limited. Russian oil exports remain close to multi-month highs due to alternative logistics, although the Urals grade is trading at a significant discount to Brent.
Renewable Energy: Records in Wind and Investments
The renewable energy sector continues to gain momentum globally, setting new capacity records and attracting substantial investments – even amidst political risks.
- The UK achieved a historical peak in wind energy generation on December 5, reaching 23,825 MW, covering more than half of the country’s needs at that time. Strong winter winds and the expansion of offshore wind farms secured the record.
- According to BloombergNEF, global investments in new renewable energy projects in the first half of 2025 reached a record $386 billion. The majority of funds are directed towards the development of solar and wind generation, as well as energy storage systems for integrating renewable sources.
- In the US, a federal court overturned a ban on the construction of new wind energy projects on federal lands and the continental shelf, imposed earlier this year. This decision paves the way for large offshore wind farms and supports states' plans to increase the share of clean energy.
- China continues to lead globally in renewable energy: the total capacity of renewable sources in the country has exceeded 1.88 TW (about 56% of total capacity). The large-scale deployment of solar and wind plants, as well as storage systems, has allowed China to maintain stable CO2 emissions despite economic growth.
Nuclear Energy: The Return of Major Capacity
After a long decline in the global nuclear industry, signs of revival are emerging. Countries are re-evaluating the role of nuclear generation as a stable low-carbon energy source, striving to reduce dependence on fossil fuels.
- Japan is preparing for the partial restart of the largest nuclear power plant "Kashiwazaki-Kariwa". TEPCO has received approval from local authorities in Niigata and plans to launch Unit 6 with a capacity of 1360 MW on January 20, 2026 – the first reactor started by the company since 2011. The full restoration of the 8.2-gigawatt station will be phased over several years.
- The Japanese government has announced support measures for the nuclear sector aimed at doubling the share of nuclear energy in the energy balance. A system of state loans and guarantees for reactor upgrades is being introduced; currently, 14 out of 33 reactors remaining after the Fukushima-1 incident have resumed operations.
- A return to nuclear energy is also observed in other countries. In Europe, Finland has launched the Olkiluoto-3 reactor, while France and the UK are investing in new nuclear power plants, and the US is considering extending the life of operating units and funding modular reactors.
Coal Sector: Peak Consumption and Gradual Decline
The global coal market reached a historical peak in 2025, but a trend reversal is anticipated ahead. According to the International Energy Agency, global coal consumption increased by 0.5% and reached 8.85 billion tonnes in 2025. A gradual decline in coal demand is forecasted by the end of the decade, as renewable energy, nuclear, and natural gas replace coal in generation.
- In the US, coal consumption for electricity generation increased in 2025. This was attributed to last year’s spike in gas prices and a presidential directive to extend the operation of coal-fired power plants that were slated for closure.
- China remains the largest consumer of coal, accounting for approximately 60% of the country's electricity generation. In 2025, coal demand in China stabilized; a gradual decline is expected by 2030 due to the extensive introduction of renewable capacities. Beijing's policy aims for peak emissions by 2030, which implies a reduction in the role of coal.
Corporate News: Transactions and Strategies of Energy Companies
The end of the year is marked by significant corporate steps in the energy sector, reflecting companies’ efforts to optimize portfolios and adapt to new conditions.
- BP is selling a 65% stake in its subsidiary Castrol (lubricants) to the American investment fund Stonepeak for $6 billion. The deal values the Castrol business at $10.1 billion; BP will retain a 35% stake in the new joint venture. Proceeds will be used to reduce debt and pay dividends, following the strategy of enhancing returns from traditional segments.
- In Russia, foreign partners are showing interest in returning to the market despite sanctions. India's ONGC and Japan's SODECO have maintained their stakes in "Sakhalin-1," and a preliminary agreement between ExxonMobil and "Rosneft" regarding compensation for losses signals major players' readiness to resume cooperation as soon as the political situation improves.
- In electricity and infrastructure, technological transactions are taking place. For example, American Alphabet (the parent company of Google) announced in December the acquisition of Intersect Power, a developer of renewable energy and data center projects, for $4.7 billion. This will enable Alphabet to accelerate the development of its own generation from renewable sources and reduce dependence on overloaded power grids.
