Current Global Oil and Gas News for December 16, 2025: Oil and Gas Prices, Energy Market, Renewable Energy, Coal, Refineries, Processing, and Global Trends. A Comprehensive Review for Investors and Participants in the Energy Sector.
Current events in the fuel and energy complex (FEC) as of December 16, 2025, draw attention from investors and market participants due to their ambiguity. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced his readiness to abandon aspirations for NATO membership in exchange for security guarantees from the US and Europe—this step instils hope for a potential de-escalation of the prolonged conflict. Meanwhile, sanctions pressure on Russia continues to intensify: the European Union has extended the freeze on Russian assets indefinitely until the end of the conflict and is discussing a complete ban on the remaining supplies of Russian oil at the beginning of 2026 while already agreeing to permanently halt the import of Russian gas by 2027. Fundamental factors of oversupply and sluggish demand continue to dominate the global oil market—benchmark Brent crude oil prices remain around the lower boundary of $60 per barrel, reflecting a fragile balance of power. The European gas market displays relative stability: gas storage in the EU is over 85% full, providing a buffer before winter and keeping prices at a moderate level. Meanwhile, the global energy transition is gaining momentum—new records for generation from renewable sources are being set in various regions, although countries have not yet fully renounced traditional resources for the reliability of their energy systems. In Russia, following previous price spikes, authorities continue to implement a range of measures aimed at stabilizing the situation in the domestic fuel market. Below is a detailed overview of key news and trends in the oil, gas, electricity, coal, and renewable sectors, as well as in the markets for petroleum products and processing on this date.
Oil Market: Oversupply Keeps Prices at Multi-Year Lows
Global oil prices remain relatively stable but at a low level, influenced by fundamental factors. The North Sea Brent blend trades around $60-62 per barrel, while the American WTI hovers near $57-59. Current quotes are approximately 15% lower than levels a year ago, reflecting a gradual market correction following the peaks of the energy crisis of 2022-2023. The primary reason for price pressure remains an oversupply with moderate demand growth. In September, global oil production reached a record 109 million b/d, and although volumes slightly declined in November (by about 1.5 million b/d) due to targeted OPEC+ restrictions and disruptions among certain producers, overall supply remains abundant. Global oil inventories have risen to a four-year high of about 8 billion barrels, indicating an excess supply of around 1-2 million b/d for much of the year. OPEC+ signals its readiness to maintain or even strengthen production restrictions until 2026, aiming to prevent further price declines. Sanctions against exporters like Russia and Iran have reduced their oil exports, but this is still insufficient to create a substantial market deficit—others, including Middle Eastern nations, have increased shipments. The market structure is close to contango (near-term futures are priced lower than longer-term), indicating expectations of continued oil oversupply in the short term. At the same time, geopolitical risks—from the conflict in Eastern Europe to instability in the Middle East—continue to support the market, preventing prices from dropping too low. In the end, oil prices balance in a narrow range, remaining at multi-year lows without sharp declines, reflecting a fragile balance between oversupply and uncertainty factors.
Gas Market: Comfortable Stocks in Europe and the Influence of Mild Weather
The European gas market appears calm and balanced as the year comes to a close. Gas storage levels in the EU are high, around 85% of total capacity, which is significantly above the average for December and ensures reliability of supply even with increased gas withdrawals during winter. Exchange gas prices are maintained at relatively moderate levels: January futures at the TTF hub in Europe trade around $350 per thousand cubic meters (about $35 per MWh), which is several times lower than the peaks seen during the crisis two years ago. This is due to several factors: first, relatively mild weather forecasts for the second half of December have lowered heating demand expectations. Secondly, active diversification of supply has yielded results—Europe continues to receive stable volumes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the US, Qatar, and other countries to compensate for reduced pipeline imports from Russia. Furthermore, the EU has politically agreed to permanently abandon Russian gas by 2027, which stimulates long-term contracts with alternative suppliers and the development of its own infrastructure (LNG terminals, interconnections).
On the global gas market, moderate dynamics are also observed. In the US, natural gas prices (Henry Hub) dropped by around 20% in the first half of December—below $5 per million British thermal units—amid abnormally warm weather and increased production. Northern Asia, traditionally the largest consumer of LNG, is not experiencing shortages this winter: China and Japan have built up sufficient stocks, and spot prices in Asia remain relatively restrained. Thus, the gas sector enters winter in a fairly resilient state. Despite geopolitical tensions and long-term shifts in supply structures, the short-term outlook is favorable: stocks are sufficient, prices are stable, and the market can absorb spikes in demand without major disruptions. Of course, sudden cold anomalies or supply disruptions may temporarily push prices up, but at present, there are no signs of a new gas crisis.
Electricity: Rising Demand and the Need for Grid Modernization
The global electricity sector is undergoing significant structural changes against the backdrop of increasing demand and the energy transition. Electricity consumption in many countries is hitting record highs. In the US, historical maxima are expected by the end of 2025—around 4.2 trillion kWh—driven by the growth of data centers (including for AI and cryptocurrencies), as well as the ongoing electrification of transport and heating. Similar trends are evident in other regions: globally, electricity demand is increasing by about 2-3% per year, outpacing the growth of the world economy, reflecting digitalization and the transition from fossil fuels to electricity across various sectors.
As a result, the generation structure is shifting towards cleaner sources, although infrastructure challenges are becoming increasingly acute. In Europe, the share of renewable sources in electricity production approached 50% for the first time in the third quarter of 2025. However, this required compensating for variability in generation through traditional capacities. Periods of weak wind or drought (affecting hydropower) forced some countries to temporarily increase output from gas-fired and even coal power plants to meet demand. The electricity transmission networks are under increased strain due to the redistribution of energy flows between regions: for example, excess solar generation in the south needs to flow to consumers in the north, and so on. The European Union is planning extensive upgrades and expansion of its electricity network infrastructure, as well as reforms in market rules—particularly, simplifying the issuance of permits for renewable generation and energy storage to eliminate bottlenecks; otherwise, by 2040, up to 300 TWh of renewable energy may remain unused due to network constraints.
Energy experts identify several priority areas for ensuring the resilience of energy systems amid the energy transition:
- Modernizing and expanding electricity networks for efficient energy transmission between regions and integrating renewable sources.
- Widespread implementation of energy storage systems (industrial batteries) to smooth peak loads and balance renewable energy output.
- Maintaining sufficient reserve capacities (gas, hydro, and nuclear power plants) in case of abnormal demand peaks or generation disruptions from renewables.
Implementing these measures requires substantial investments but is critically important for maintaining reliable energy supplies. As a result, the electricity sector enters 2026 with record demand and an increasing share of "green" generation. However, the successful transition to a low-carbon system will depend on the infrastructure's ability to adapt to new realities.
Renewable Energy Sources (RES): New Records and Global Growth
Renewable energy continues to set records and increase its share in the global energy balance. The year 2025 marked a historic event: total generation from RES (including wind, solar, hydro, and others) exceeded coal generation globally for the first time. The rapid growth of solar and wind generation has allowed for the covering of the increase in electricity demand—solar power plants alone provided over 300 TWh of additional energy in the first half of the year, comparable to the annual consumption of a medium-sized country. Meanwhile, global generation from coal-fired power plants slightly decreased, reducing coal's share in electricity to ~33%, while RES reached ~34%.
Recent achievements in the RES sector include:
- A wind generation record in the UK—on December 5, the capacity of wind farms reached 23.8 GW, covering over 60% of the country's electricity needs that day.
- China continues to lead in clean energy expansion: the total installed capacity of RES in China reached ~1889 GW (about 56% of all capacities), with over half of new car sales in the country being electric. This has helped maintain CO2 emissions at a plateau for the past year and a half.
- Renewable energy dominates the structure of new capacity additions. By the end of 2025, over 90% of all new power plants globally were solar, wind, and other RES projects, while the shares of gas and coal in new construction are minimal.
- Investments in "green" energy are hitting records even in developing countries; for example, the Philippines approved RES projects worth almost 480 billion pesos in 2025, and several Middle Eastern and Latin American countries have launched large-scale support programs for solar and wind generation.
Despite impressive successes, the RES sector faces challenges. Regulatory uncertainty and grid limitations in some regions mean that part of the RES potential remains untapped. Experts urge governments and businesses to accelerate efforts to integrate renewable sources: setting ambitious targets, simplifying bureaucratic procedures for new projects, and investing in smart grids and energy storage. Nevertheless, the overall direction is clear—renewable energy is becoming the primary driver of generation growth globally, gradually displacing hydrocarbon sources and bringing the global energy system closer to a more eco-friendly and sustainable model.
Coal: Declining Demand and Falling Prices Amid Energy Transition
The coal sector in 2025 is experiencing pressure from the energy transition and competition from cleaner sources. Global coal demand has stabilized and begun a gradual decline in some key economies. In China and India—countries that traditionally consume a lion's share of coal—electrical generation growth this year has largely been supported by added RES, allowing for coal consumption to be maintained or even reduced relatively. Consequently, the share of coal-fired generation globally has decreased by more than 1 percentage point compared to last year.
Global prices for thermal coal also reflect weakened demand. By the end of the year, prices for Australian benchmark coal had dipped below $110 per ton, nearing recent minimum values. Since the beginning of 2025, coal prices have fallen by about 15–20%, aided by high stockpiles, a recovery in production following disruptions, and a relatively mild winter in major consuming regions. European coal price indices strengthened somewhat in the autumn against the backdrop of reduced generation at nuclear power plants and low RES output during certain weeks. However, the overall trend remains downward.
The structural reduction of coal's role in the energy systems of developed countries is also ongoing. Many nations are speeding up their plans to phase out coal: in Europe, the last projects to decommission coal-fired power plants are wrapping up by the end of the decade, while Australia has announced early closure of one of Queensland's largest power stations, six years ahead of schedule. In the US, the share of coal in generation has fallen to 16% and will continue to decline with the addition of new RES and gas capacities. Nevertheless, coal remains an important element of the global energy mix—about a third of electricity generation is still supplied by coal-fired plants, and for several developing countries, coal remains a cheap and accessible fuel for industry. In the next few years, coal demand may fluctuate depending on market conditions—the prices of gas, weather conditions, and economic activity. However, the long-term perspective points to a gradual decline of the coal era: investments are shifting toward clean energy, financial markets are pricing in an accelerated phase-out of fossil fuels, and the coal sector is increasingly shifting towards the periphery of the global energy complex.
Petroleum Products: Stabilising Fuel Prices After Autumn Shortages
The petroleum products market at the end of 2025 shows signs of stabilization following the turbulence experienced in the autumn. In October and early November, disruptions at several major refineries (scheduled maintenance and unscheduled shutdowns) led to local shortages of diesel fuel and kerosene in specific markets. Against this backdrop, global refining margins surged to peaks comparable to the period just after the onset of the conflict in 2022, particularly the crack spreads for diesel fuel, given its heightened demand during the heating season and in industry.
However, by mid-December, the situation had normalized. Many refineries resumed full operations, making up for lost fuel production. Gasoline and distillate stocks in the US and Europe began to recover, leading to a reduction in wholesale prices. Retail gasoline prices in the US have dropped from summer peaks and are currently about 5–10% lower than a year ago, thanks to falling crude oil prices and stabilized demand. In Europe, the price of diesel fuel has also pulled back from recent highs, alleviating inflationary pressure on the transport sector. In Asia, where there has been a surge in demand for jet fuel due to the recovery of air travel throughout the year, kerosene imports increased going into winter, saturating the market and halting price increases.
It is important to note that changes in global trade of petroleum products continue to occur under the influence of geopolitics. EU countries have refused since February 2023 to import Russian petroleum products, redirecting supplies to the Middle East, Asia, and the US. In turn, Russia has redirected some of its diesel and gasoline exports to Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East. This reorientation requires time for the market to balance, but overall the global fuel supply system has adapted: there are no fuel shortages, although logistics have become more complex. Looking ahead to early 2026, new changes may occur—if the European Commission implements plans to ban imports of Russian oil, it will indirectly impact the petroleum products market, forcing EU refineries to rely solely on alternative feedstocks. Nevertheless, at this point, the petroleum products market is entering winter relatively calmly: the supply of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel is sufficient to meet demand, and prices fluctuate within the usual seasonal range without signs of new price shocks.
Refining (Refineries): Industry Modernisation and Transition to Clean Fuels
Refineries worldwide are undergoing a period of transformation as they try to adapt to changing demand and environmental requirements. In Europe, there is a clear trend: refineries are reorienting towards producing cleaner fuel types. Under pressure from tightening EU emission standards and competition from new, high-tech refineries in the Middle East and Asia, European refiners are investing billions of euros in modernization. The key goal is to increase the production of eco-friendly products, such as sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), biodiesel, renewable propane, and other biofuels, which are in growing demand from the transport sector.
Another developmental direction is the deepening of processing and integration with petrochemicals. Large oil companies strive to enhance margins by refining oil not only into fuel but into petrochemical products (plastics, fertilizers, etc.). Many modern refineries are effectively transforming into integrated complexes that can flexibly adjust product output based on market conditions—for instance, increasing the production of jet fuel or heating oil if demand rises or processing part of the feedstock into naphtha for petrochemicals.
Key trends in the transformation of oil refining include:
- Decarbonisation of processes: the introduction of carbon capture technologies, transitioning to hydrogen fuel, and using renewable energy for the power supply of refineries to reduce the carbon footprint of production.
- Capacity optimization: closing outdated and less efficient refineries in regions with excess capacity (e.g., Europe) and starting new, modernized plants closer to centers of rising demand—such as in Asia, the Middle East, and Africa.
- Feedstock flexibility: the ability to process various types of feedstock—from traditional crude oil of different grades to bio-feedstock (vegetable oils, waste) and synthetic oil. This allows refineries to operate amid shifts in supply caused by sanctions or market conditions.
The global refining volume in 2025 is on the rise following recovering fuel consumption. According to industry forecasts, in 2026, total refinery throughput worldwide could reach ~84 million barrels per day, surpassing levels of 2024-2025. A significant portion of new capacity growth is attributable to the Middle East (e.g., expansions of large Saudi and Kuwaiti complexes) and Asia (new refineries in China, India), where internal demand for fuel and petrochemicals is rising. At the same time, regional restructuring continues: North America and Europe are consolidating the sector, focusing on efficiency and ecology, while modern full-cycle plants are being built in developing economies.
Sanction-related and geopolitical factors have also impacted refining. Russian refiners, facing export embargoes on certain products and periodic restrictions, have redirected sales to the domestic market and friendly countries while the Russian government introduced temporary bans and quotas on gasoline and diesel exports in autumn 2025 to stabilize domestic prices. These measures led to a saturation of the domestic market and subsequent decreases in prices at Russian gas stations by December. In the long term, international experts expect that global oil refining will increasingly shift to regions with rising oil consumption and n growing demand for petroleum products, as well as adapt to the "green" transition—from producing alternative fuel types to reducing emissions. Refining enters 2026 in relatively good condition—with margins remaining positive for most players due to the earlier period of high prices. However, the industry's further success will depend on its ability to change: to produce cleaner outputs, operate more efficiently, and fit into the new energy reality, where the share of oil is gradually declining.
