Key Oil, Gas, and Energy Industry News for Friday, January 2, 2026: Oil, Gas, Electricity, Renewable Energy Sources, Coal, Refineries, and Key Global Energy Market Trends for Investors and Industry Participants.
Main Trends in the Global Energy Market
The oil and gas industry concluded 2025 amidst conflicting factors: oil prices dropped nearly 20% due to oversupply concerns, while geopolitical tensions continue to support demand for "safe" assets. Analysts believe that 2026 may see a supply surplus in oil markets, putting pressure on prices; however, local restrictions (the EU ban on petroleum products from Russia and attacks on refineries) limit exports and keep prices elevated, particularly for diesel fuel.
Trends in the gas markets are shifting rapidly: Europe is reducing transit through Ukraine and plans to completely phase out Russian gas by 2028, ramping up LNG imports. Asia is also restructuring supply routes in response to trade tensions. Meanwhile, global electricity demand is increasing – driven by rapid growth in data centers, artificial intelligence, and electric vehicles – stimulating investment in renewable energy and energy storage solutions.
Oil Market: Prices and Forecasts
- Price Outlook: Experts forecast that in 2026, Brent crude will trade around $60–65 per barrel. It is expected that total supply will exceed demand by nearly 4 million barrels per day, resulting in an oversupply of inventories.
- OPEC+ Policy: OPEC+ countries have suspended production increases and maintained previously announced cuts. The overall level of reductions remains at approximately 3.2 million barrels per day, equivalent to ~3% of global demand.
- Demand: The global economy is demonstrating steady growth, therefore the demand for oil is expected to increase by several hundred thousand barrels per day in 2026. Significant consumption growth is noted in Asia and the Middle East, whereas in the U.S., shale oil production is starting to decline slightly.
- Geopolitics: Prospects for a peaceful resolution in Ukraine could drastically change the oil market balance. Lifting sanctions and returning Russian volumes to the market would lead to an increase in supply, while their continuation would support prices.
Gas Market: Supplies and Demand
- Pipelines: Exports of Russian gas via pipelines to Europe fell by more than 40% by the end of 2025 due to the closure of the Ukrainian route. The EU plans to completely eliminate imports of Russian gas by 2028, leaving only a few transit routes.
- LNG and Alternatives: European countries are actively increasing LNG purchases from the U.S., Qatar, and other suppliers. Meanwhile, Asia sharply reduced LNG imports from the U.S. after tariffs on American energy were imposed. Demand for LNG in China and India continues to grow as these countries seek to diversify their fuel sources.
- Regional Trends: Turkey is investing in gas infrastructure and storage to bolster its energy security. In China, demand for natural gas is expected to grow until 2035–2045 (up to 620–650 billion cubic meters annually), stimulating further expansion of gas networks.
Renewable Energy and Electricity
- Electricity Demand: Electricity consumption in many countries is growing at record rates. In the U.S., it could exceed 4.2 trillion kWh by 2026, driven by the data center boom, AI development, and the electrification of transport and public utilities.
- Share of Renewables: The share of renewable sources in electricity generation is steadily increasing. By 2030, the total installed capacity of "green" generation could exceed 4.6 TW (with 80% coming from solar power), and significant growth in wind and solar is expected in the coming years due to incentive policies and decreasing technology costs.
- Energy Storage: The adoption of battery systems is gaining momentum. Chinese manufacturers are leading in this area — estimates suggest their exports of lithium-ion batteries for storage grew by 75% in 2025. Global investments in storage are also increasing and could surpass $60 billion by the end of the year.
Coal Sector
- Global Demand: According to the IEA, coal consumption is projected to reach a record 8.85 billion tons in 2025 (+0.5% compared to 2024) and is expected to start gradually declining toward the end of the decade, as renewable energy, nuclear, and gas generation capacities grow.
- Regional Dynamics: In India, coal demand has decreased due to strong rains and increased hydropower, while in the U.S., it has grown amid rising gas prices. China, the largest coal consumer (30% more than the rest of the world combined), stabilized in 2025, but a decrease in coal's share in the energy balance is expected by the 2030s.
- Environmental Factors: Countries continue to balance between climate goals and energy security. Even with the pressure of decarbonization, the coal sector remains critical in several regions, creating uncertainty in policies and investments.
Refining and Petroleum Products
- Diesel Deficit: In 2025, the European diesel margin increased by approximately 30%, while oil prices fell. This is linked to attacks on Ukrainian refineries and the EU ban on importing fuel from Russian oil. Limited diesel supply sustains high spreads on petroleum products.
- New Capacities: There are no large-scale refinery construction projects planned in developed countries, leading to a structural deficit in the petroleum products market. Investors expect that high margins on products will persist until refining capacities increase.
- Venezuela: PDVSA is accumulating heavy residues in storage as sanctions limit heavy fuel and oil exports. This exacerbates the deficit of marine fuel and impacts regions dependent on Venezuelan exports.
Corporate Events and Projects
- Contracts and Investments: Major companies are signing significant agreements. Italian firm Saipem secured a $425 million contract for the development of the Sakarya gas field in Turkey. British Harbour Energy became the operator of the Zama field in Mexico (approximately 750 million barrels of oil) and concluded deals worth $3.2 billion in the Gulf of Mexico, strengthening its position.
- Mergers and Acquisitions: In December 2025, Harbour Energy acquired a 32% stake in the Zama project and secured control over the LLOG asset in the Gulf of Mexico, making it the operator of two of the largest independent projects in the region.
- Sanctions and Licenses: Regulators continue to impact the energy sector. In Serbia, the NIS refinery (owned by Gazprom Neft) received a temporary OFAC license until January 2026, allowing operations to resume following a halt associated with U.S. sanctions.
Financial and Market Indicators
- Stock Market Trends: Major stock indices of energy companies reflect the situation in raw materials markets. By the end of 2025, Middle Eastern indices declined following the drop in oil prices (for instance, Saudi Arabia's index fell by 1%), while stocks of major oil and gas companies showed slight decreases.
- Regulation and Monetary Policy: Central banks influence the investment climate. For example, in Egypt, a 100 basis point cut in the key rate supported the stock market's growth (+0.9%), stimulating domestic demand. Similar measures are being discussed in other emerging markets.
- Commodity Currencies: Currencies of energy-exporting countries remain relatively stable due to fiscal and budgetary mechanisms. The Russian ruble, Norwegian krone, and Canadian dollar are supported by revenues from oil and gas sales, which limits their volatility during price declines.
