Global News from the Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector as of January 31, 2026: Oil, Gas, Electricity, Renewable Energy, Coal, Oil Products, and Key Trends in the Global Energy Sector for Investors and Market Participants.
The end of January 2026 is marked by continued geopolitical tensions and a significant restructuring of global energy resource flows within the fuel and energy complex. Western countries maintain strict sanctions pressure on Russia, with the European Union implementing new restrictions on energy trade. Concurrently, the escalation of tensions surrounding Iran in the Middle East has raised concerns about potential oil supply disruptions, triggering a sharp increase in prices.
In the global oil market, after several months of relative stability, there has been a noticeable surge in prices. The benchmark Brent crude has surpassed $70 per barrel for the first time since July, while WTI is approaching $65, reaching six-month highs amid rising risks. The European gas market is adapting to winter conditions effectively without Russian gas and has maintained a level of stability: high stock levels and diversified supply sources have helped to avoid shortages. However, by the end of January, gas reserves in the EU’s underground storage facilities have dropped to approximately 44% of total capacity — the lowest level for this date since 2022 — and could fall below 30% by spring, posing a significant challenge for replenishment.
The energy transition is gaining momentum: 2025 saw the introduction of record renewable energy capacities worldwide, although the reliable operation of energy systems still requires reliance on traditional resources. For instance, a recent unprecedented cold spell in the USA forced energy providers to sharply increase generation at coal-fired power plants to cover peak demand. In Asia, the demand for coal and hydrocarbon raw materials remains high, supporting commodity markets despite the climate agenda. In Russia, following a spike in fuel prices last fall, authorities extended emergency measures to limit the export of oil products to maintain stability in the domestic fuel market. Below is a detailed overview of key news and trends from the oil, gas, energy, and commodity sectors as of the end of January 2026.
Oil Market: Prices Surge Amid Middle Eastern Risks
Global oil prices have significantly increased by the end of January. Brent prices are holding above $70 per barrel (peaking around $71), while WTI is trading around $65 — these are the highest levels since mid-2025. This rise follows a period of relative stability in the second half of 2025, where an oversupply and moderate demand kept prices around $60. The primary driver of the current rally has been geopolitics: the escalating conflict around Iran and threats to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz—a key artery for global oil trade—have led to a risk premium being factored into prices.
However, fundamental factors in the oil market continue to signal a significant supply presence. OPEC+ countries increased production in the second half of 2025, aiming to regain lost market shares, resulting in a surplus of around 2 million barrels per day. Additional volumes are also coming from outside the cartel: the USA has partially lifted restrictions on production in Venezuela, allowing its oil to return to the market, and domestic production in America is near record levels. Global oil demand growth has slowed amid a weakening global economy (particularly a deceleration in growth in China) and the effects of energy conservation following price shocks from previous years. Some analysts predict that in the absence of new disruptions, the average Brent price in 2026 could remain around $60-62 per barrel due to the ongoing supply surplus. In the short term, the price dynamics will depend on the geopolitical situation’s development. Possible escalation of the conflict in the Middle East could push prices higher, while progress in negotiations (for instance, regarding Iran or Ukraine) could ease market tensions. Moreover, financial factors also impact prices: expectations of easing the US Fed's policies weaken the dollar, temporarily supporting commodities, including oil. Thus, oil is trading in a heightened range due to geopolitical risks, but the abundance of supply may restrain further price growth under stable supply conditions.
Gas Market: Winter Stability and Stock Replenishment Challenges
The European natural gas market is entering the final phase of winter relatively calmly thanks to reserves created and new supply routes. By the beginning of the heating season, EU countries filled their underground gas storage (UGS) facilities to over 90%, ensuring a cushion for the cold months. As of the end of January, the storage levels have dropped to about 44% of total capacity, marking the lowest figure for this time of year since 2022. Nevertheless, market prices for gas remain relatively moderate and are several times lower than the peaks of last winter. This is facilitated by several factors: mild weather for most of the season, record purchases of liquefied natural gas (LNG) on the global market, and stable pipeline supplies from Norway, North Africa, and Azerbaijan. Thanks to the diversification of sources, Europe is currently successfully covering its demand while compensating for the absence of Russian gas.
However, serious challenges lie ahead for the EU gas sector. If the current trend continues, by March, storage levels could drop to around 30%, and European companies will need to inject approximately 60 billion cubic meters of gas to return to last year's fill levels. Securing such replenishment volumes without traditional Russian supplies is a daunting task. In anticipation of the next heating season, the European Union is actively enhancing infrastructure for LNG reception (new regasification terminals are being constructed) and entering into long-term contracts with alternative suppliers. Additionally, January confirmed the EU's strategic decision to completely cease imports of Russian gas (both pipeline and LNG) by 2027, which will end long-standing reliance. The volumes lost are expected to be replaced primarily by the global LNG market: the International Energy Agency anticipates that global liquefied gas supplies will reach a new record (around 185 billion m3) in 2026, thanks to the launch of export projects in the USA, Canada, and Qatar. Simultaneously, the pricing situation raises questions: an abnormal backwardation in the TTF gas hub is observed, with summer futures prices exceeding winter prices, which decreases incentives for injecting gas into storage. Experts warn that without special support measures, such market conditions could complicate preparations for the next winter. Overall, the European gas market is now significantly more resilient than during the 2022 crisis, but maintaining this resilience will require further supply diversification, storage system development, and possibly coordinated actions from authorities to stimulate necessary reserves.
International Politics: Sanctions and Energy
The sanctions confrontation between Moscow and the West continues to shape the global energy landscape. At the end of 2025, the European Union approved its 19th package of restrictive measures, a significant part of which targets the fuel and energy sector—from tightening the price ceiling on Russian oil to banning the export of equipment and services for extraction. The United States and its allies also indicate their readiness to increase pressure: new sanctions measures are under discussion, including mechanisms for seizing frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine's recovery. Although some communication channels between governments remain, there are currently no real signals for easing sanctions. For markets, this means continued bifurcation of energy flows into “permitted” and “alternative” streams. Russian oil and gas continue to be redirected to Asia at discounts— to countries such as China, India, and Turkey—while European consumers have fully shifted to other sources. In effect, two parallel price zones have formed: a western zone refusing Russian energy resources and an alternative zone where Russian barrels and cubic meters find demand but at reduced prices and extended logistics. Investors and market participants are closely monitoring sanction policies since any changes will immediately affect supply routes and pricing conditions.
Besides the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, sanctions against other states remain a determining factor affecting the energy sector. In January, the USA and the EU expanded their sanction lists against Iran amidst repression against protesters and disputes over the nuclear program, complicating the trade of Iranian oil and adding uncertainty to the market. Concurrently, the sanction regime concerning Venezuela is gradually being adjusted: following the easing of American restrictions in the fall of 2023, the Venezuelan oil industry has begun to increase production, and major companies (ExxonMobil, Chevron, etc.) are exploring new projects in the country. This is bringing back some of the previously lost volumes of heavy oil to the global market. Geopolitical barriers are also influencing corporate transactions: the American investment firm Carlyle Group has agreed to acquire a major portion of Lukoil’s foreign assets, which Russia's second-largest oil company had to put up for sale due to sanctions. This example illustrates how international players are reshaping their strategies and assets under sanction pressures. Overall, the energy sector remains at the center of global politics: sanctions, conflicts, and diplomatic decisions directly determine global flows of oil and gas, increasing the significance of political risks in investment decisions within the energy sector.
Energy Transition: Records and Balancing
The global transition to clean energy in 2025 was marked by unprecedented growth in renewable generation. In many countries, record new capacities of solar and wind power plants have been introduced:
- EU: around 85-90 GW of renewable energy sources added over the year;
- USA: the share of renewable electricity surpassed 30% in the overall energy balance for the first time;
- China: tens of gigawatts of new “green” power plants were introduced, setting national records for renewable energy capacity additions.
The rapid growth of the renewables sector raises questions about the reliability of energy systems. During periods of calm or lack of sunshine, backup capacities from traditional power plants are still required to meet peak demand and prevent supply disruptions. For instance, during a severe cold snap in the USA in January 2026, grid operators were forced to increase generation at coal-fired power plants by more than 30% to meet the sharp rise in electricity consumption— this case highlighted the importance of having sufficient reserves in extreme conditions. Therefore, energy storage projects are actively being implemented worldwide: large battery farms are being built to store electricity, and technologies for energy storage in the form of hydrogen and other carriers are being explored. The development of storage systems will help smooth out fluctuations in renewable generation and enhance the stability of energy systems as the share of renewable energy increases.
Meanwhile, energy companies are seeking a balance between environmental goals and maintaining profitability. BP's experience, which in 2025 announced a reduction in investments in renewable energy and wrote down several billion dollars of “green” assets, showed that even industry giants need to adjust strategies. Despite robust growth in the clean sector, traditional oil and gas business continues to provide the majority of profits, and shareholders require a balanced approach. “Green” projects must be developed without compromising the financial stability of companies. The energy transition continues at a high pace, but the key lesson from 2025 is the necessity for a more balanced strategy that combines accelerated adoption of renewable energy with maintaining the reliability of energy systems and the profitability of investments in the sector.
Coal: High Demand in Asia
The global coal market in 2025 remained on the rise despite global goals to reduce coal use. The main reason is the consistently high demand in Asia. Countries such as China and India continue to burn large volumes of coal for electricity generation and industrial needs, compensating for falling consumption in Western economies. China now accounts for nearly half of global coal consumption, and even producing over 4 billion tons a year, it is forced to increase imports during peak demand periods. India is also ramping up its own production, but due to the rapid growth of its economy, it needs to import significant volumes of fuel from abroad—mainly from Indonesia, Australia, and Russia.
The robust Asian demand supports coal prices at relatively high levels. Major exporters—from Indonesia and Australia to South Africa—saw increased revenues in 2025 due to steady orders from China, India, and other countries in the region. In Europe, in contrast, after a temporary surge in coal usage in 2022-2023, its share has begun to decrease again due to the rapid growth of renewable energy and the return of several nuclear power plants to operation. Overall, despite the climate agenda, coal is expected to maintain a significant share of the global energy balance in the coming years, although investments in new coal capacities are gradually decreasing. Governments and companies strive to strike a balance: satisfying current coal demand, especially in developing countries, while simultaneously accelerating the transition to cleaner energy sources.
Russian Market: Restrictions and Stabilization
Since autumn 2025, the Russian government has been intervening in fuel market regulation, curbing price growth in the domestic market. After wholesale prices for gasoline and diesel reached record levels in August, temporary restrictions on the export of key oil products were implemented, which have now been extended until February 28, 2026. These restrictions apply to the export of gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, and gas oil. These measures have already had a noticeable effect: by winter, wholesale prices for motor fuel domestically have decreased by tens of percent from peak levels. Retail price growth has significantly slowed, and by the end of the year, the situation at gas stations has stabilized—fuel outlets are well-stocked, and consumer panic buying has subsided.
For oil companies and oil refineries, these restrictions mean lost opportunities in foreign markets; however, authorities are demanding businesses tighten their belts for the sake of price stability within the country. The production cost of oil at most Russian fields remains low, so even with Russian export oil prices below $40 per barrel, there are no direct losses, allowing profitability to be sustained. Nevertheless, the reduction in export revenues jeopardizes the realization of new projects that require higher global prices and access to foreign sales markets for profitability. The government refrains from directly subsidizing the sector, stating that the situation is under control and that energy companies still generate profits even with declining exports. The domestic fuel and energy sector is adapting to new conditions. The primary challenge for 2026 is to maintain a balance between restraining internal energy prices and sustaining export revenues, which are critically important for the budget and the sector's development.
