Global Oil and Gas Industry and Energy News Including Oil, Gas, Electricity, RES, Coal, Oil Products, and Key Events in the Global Energy Market
Oil: Brent and WTI Hold Above $100, Market Pays for 'Immediate Barrel'
The strength signal remains not only in the price level but also in the structure of the futures market. Backwardation around several tens of dollars indicates a bet on the deficit of current supplies: participants are willing to overpay for raw materials with quick delivery while logistics and export corridors remain unstable. For oil companies and traders, this means an increase in price premiums for physical grades and a heightened role for stocks.
The shock is intensified by reports of production and export cuts in the Middle East: southern Iraq's production is estimated to have declined by approximately 70% (to 1.3 million barrels per day), and several producers have declared force majeure. Against this background, OPEC+'s decision to increase production by about 206,000 barrels per day starting in April appears insufficient in scale—the market reacts to actual barrels and their delivery possibility, not “paper quotas.”
Gas and LNG: Qatar's Force Majeure and Price Shock in Europe and Asia
Qatar (about 20% of global LNG exports) has declared force majeure and halted liquefaction at the largest export hub, Ras Laffan. The recovery of supplies is not instantaneous: even after the decision to restart liquefaction lines, time is required for a phased ramp-up, and market participants estimate a return to normal volumes in at least a “monthly horizon.”
Europe responded with a price surge: the TTF base contract rose to €65.79/MWh in the early days of the crisis (more than double the levels of the previous week). The risk for the region is not just a "physical deficit today," but the speed of injection into underground gas storage: as spring approaches, the EU enters the replenishment season with a filling level of about 30% and must reach 90% by November. Asia, which received over 80% of Qatari cargoes, is activating emergency plans, cutting supply to industries, and seeking spot cargoes, thus intensifying the competition between Europe and Asia for available LNG and increasing the significance of redirecting flows from the US and other exporters.
Oil Products and Refineries: Diesel and Jet Fuel Accelerate Profit Redistribution in the Value Chain
The oil products market typically shows the first signs of a deficit. In Asia, spot prices for jet fuel in Singapore on March 4 reached a record $225.44/barrel, while gas oil hit $123.39/barrel—a peak since 2023. For end markets, this implies rising costs for aviation, freight logistics, and industrial input.
For refineries, the rise in product prices increases margins, but simultaneously raises risks related to raw material supply, logistics, and export policy. In Asia, the integrated margin in Singapore was estimated at around $30/barrel; the crack for jet fuel exceeded $52/barrel, while diesel (10ppm) reached $48/barrel. In a high-price environment, governments and companies are intensifying measures to protect domestic markets—from restrictions on oil products exports to temporary price corridors.
- Diesel: the main channel for transferring the shock to transportation, construction, and extraction.
- Jet Fuel: an indicator of real shortages and a leading signal of business activity.
- Gasoline: a product with maximum political sensitivity.
Logistics: Freight Rates for Tankers and Gas Carriers Rising, Delivery Time Becomes a Price Factor
Energy carrier delivery hinges on transport and insurance. The rate for VLCCs heading from the Middle East to China was estimated at around $423,736 per day during peak moments. In the LNG market, freight rates have also surged: Atlantic rates rose to $61,500/day, while Pacific rates approached $41,000/day. This increases the cost of spot transactions and accelerates the "flow" of cargoes to the most creditworthy buyers.
Coal: Fuel Switching Returns Premium to Energy Coal
With the sharp rise in gas prices and LNG shortages, the energy sector is returning to coal as a "safety net." The Asian benchmark Newcastle jumped 8.6% to $128.7 per ton at the onset of the shock—signaling a rise in demand for coal generation and the increased value of fuel with more stable logistics. This heightens volatility in the coal market and intensifies the ESG dilemma: the stability of energy supply might temporarily outweigh emission reduction targets.
Electricity, RES, and Nuclear: Rising Volatility and Demand for Base Generation
Gas-fired stations often set the marginal price in European wholesale electricity markets, meaning the gas shock quickly translates into MWh costs for industries. Market participants estimate that since February 28, gas prices have risen by approximately 50%, while the annual contract for base electricity in Germany increased by about 9%.
A high share of RES lowers the average price but increases intraday fluctuations and the need for reserve capacity. By 2026, this is fueling interest in "base" low-carbon generation, including small modular reactors: in Helsinki, the city energy company is considering investments of €1–5 billion in SMR capacities (up to 300 MW) for heating and electricity amidst rising demand from electrification, data centers, and hydrogen projects.
Policy and Macro: Reserves, Price Measures, and the Risk of a New Inflation Wave
The sectoral shock is swiftly becoming a macroeconomic factor. G7 finance ministers are discussing a coordinated release of oil from strategic reserves in conjunction with the International Energy Agency. Simultaneously, individual countries are implementing price measures on fuel and temporary restrictions on oil products exports, attempting to cushion the effect on domestic markets.
For central banks, the key risk is a "second round" of inflation: high energy prices raise transport and production costs. European financial markets have already heightened expectations for a stricter rate trajectory (including a scenario for the ECB) if high prices for oil, gas, and electricity persist for not just days but weeks and months.
What Investors and Market Participants Should Monitor on March 10:
- actual tanker traffic and insurance conditions in the Strait of Hormuz;
- the shape of the Brent/WTI curve and premiums for physical grades and futures;
- timing for the recovery of Qatari LNG and redirection of cargoes from the US and other exporters;
- refining margins and the stability of refinery operations, especially for diesel and jet fuel;
- electricity price dynamics and signs of fuel switching (gas/coal);
- next steps from regulators: reserves, price measures, export restrictions, and gas storage norms in underground gas storage.
