Current News in the Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector as of 25 November 2025: Oil, Gas, Renewable Energy, Energy Policy, Sanctions, Fuel and Energy Complex, Global Commodity Markets, Analytics, and Key Events of the Day.
Global Oil Market
Following a sell-off in previous days, oil prices have stabilized at minimal levels. Brent is trading around $62–63 per barrel, while WTI is approximately $58. This is attributed to a combination of factors: rising oil inventories in the U.S., moderate demand outlooks from the IEA and EIA, as well as geopolitical news. Intensification of negotiations for conflict resolution in Ukraine has alleviated some concerns regarding supply disruptions and has placed downward pressure on prices.
- Inventories and Demand: American oil inventories increased by 6.4 million barrels in the week leading up to early November — significantly exceeding forecasts. According to IEA projections, global oil supply could outstrip demand by approximately 4 million barrels per day in 2026, posing a risk of substantial market oversupply.
- OPEC+ Decision: In early November, OPEC+ countries agreed to increase production by only 137,000 barrels per day in December and to halt further increases through the first quarter of 2026 (due to concerns over supply surplus). Meanwhile, new Western sanctions are hampering the expansion of Russian production: U.S. and British restrictions primarily impact Rosneft and LUKOIL.
Sanctions and Russian Oil Exports
As of 21 November, sanctions by the U.S. against Rosneft and LUKOIL came into force. These measures could remove up to 48 million barrels of Russian oil from the global market. Russian export flows are facing logistical difficulties: some tankers carrying Urals, ESPO, and other grades have been redirected or delayed en route. Indian refineries are already reserving vessels for oil supplies from the Persian Gulf as a substitute for Russian oil.
- Price Implications: In the short term, Russian oil is being sold at significant discounts, which has stimulated demand from Asia for Urals. However, with the European Union set to completely ban imports of fuel from Russian oil starting 16 January, this will create a shortage in the petroleum products market and sustain high margins for sellers of alternative supplies.
Diesel Market and Oil Products
In contrast to crude oil, diesel prices remain elevated: although they dropped slightly over the past week, they are still 8% higher than the end of October levels. This is linked to a diesel shortage in the global market. Russia, the second-largest exporter of diesel, has reduced shipments to record low levels due to attacks on refineries and sanctions: in October, exports totaled only 669,000 barrels per day (the lowest since 2020). Rosneft and LUKOIL together previously supplied about 270,000 barrels of diesel per day (37% of Russian exports and 9% globally) — and these volumes are now lost.
European and Asian refineries that previously relied on cheap Russian oil are restructuring their logistics and decreasing purchases from Russia. As a result, margins for diesel production have increased: U.S. refineries have ramped up diesel exports to Europe, and their profits per barrel have risen by approximately 12%. Even with a potential peace in Ukraine, the lifting of European restrictions is unlikely to occur, meaning diesel prices will remain elevated.
European Gas Market
Gas prices in Europe have sharply declined: on 24 November, TTF gas prices for December delivery fell below €30 per MWh (≈$355 per 1000 m³), marking the lowest level since May 2024. This drop is associated with optimism surrounding negotiations related to Ukraine. Market participants believe that if peace initiatives succeed, the European Union may abandon plans to completely reject Russian LNG, alleviating some of the supply reliability premium. It should be noted that in pre-war years, Russia accounted for up to 45% of the EU's gas imports; today this share stands at around 10%. At the same time, the EU has adopted a plan for a complete cessation of imports from Russia by the end of 2027, which is contested by Hungary and Slovakia.
- Gazprom Issues Warning: Gazprom has noted unprecedented rates of gas withdrawals from European underground storage facilities. According to the Gas Infrastructure Europe association, European countries extracted unprecedented volumes of gas daily between 19–21 November. By 21 November, storage fill levels in the EU dropped below 80% — one of the lowest figures in the past decade. In the event of prolonged cold spells, existing supplies may not suffice for stable provision to residential and industrial consumers.
Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)
- Imports from the U.S.: By the end of 2025, the EU has set a record for purchases of American energy resources — approximately $200 billion (including LNG, nuclear fuel, and oil). The share of American LNG in total gas imports to the EU has risen to 60%. The EU is actively concluding long-term contracts for LNG supply from the U.S., further reducing reliance on alternative sources.
- Projects and Risks: New challenges are emerging in the global LNG market. In Australia, unions have filed for a strike at the expanding Pluto facility (Woodside Energy) due to significant wage disparities with a similar Wheatstone project. Should the strike occur, the start of additional LNG deliveries from this project may be delayed until the end of 2026. Such disruptions increase tensions in the global gas market: similar events in 2023 led to gas price spikes due to the redistribution of supplies.
Energy Policy and Renewable Energy Sources
- COP30 (UN): At the climate summit in Brazil, the final declaration omitted a phased-out approach to oil, gas, and coal. This means that there are no longer calls in the official document to abandon fossil fuels. This wording reflects a compromise between countries advocating for a gradual transition to clean energy and major oil and gas exporters demanding that their interests be considered.
- G20 Declaration: Leaders at the G20 summit in Johannesburg emphasized the need for stable supplies of fossil fuels, noting that sanction risks must be assessed. The joint statement highlighted the importance of reliable energy chains and fair distribution of benefits from resource development. At the same time, G20 countries reaffirmed ambitious climate goals: to triple renewable energy capacity and double energy efficiency by 2030.
- Renewable Energy Projects: Despite political debates, "green" projects are advancing. Statkraft has launched Germany's largest hybrid power plant: 46.4 MW of solar panels with a 57 MWh battery (powering around 14,000 homes and saving 32,000 tons of CO₂ annually). In India, ReNew Power raised $331 million from the ADB to construct a 2.8 GW hybrid facility (solar + wind installations with storage), capable of continuously supplying 300 MW of "green" energy. These projects enhance the security of energy systems and support the energy transition.
Major Deals and Investments
- Saudi Aramco: The state oil company of Saudi Arabia is preparing one of the largest deals in history: the sale of stakes in its export terminals and storage facilities. The deal is expected to generate over $10 billion, which is planned to be directed towards production development, including the Jafura gas project. Nevertheless, Aramco continues to actively invest in expanding oil and gas production.
In conclusion, as of 25 November 2025, global energy resource markets are at a crossroads of significant changes. On one hand, hopes for a peaceful resolution to the crisis are alleviating some geopolitical risks and pushing prices downward. On the other hand, sanctions and operational issues are sustaining shortages in certain segments (particularly diesel and gas) and leading to high volatility. Market participants should carefully monitor the progress of negotiations, regulatory decisions, and global energy strategies: these will ultimately determine the future dynamics of demand, export, and pricing in the fuel and energy complex.
