Current news in oil and gas and energy as of February 13, 2026: dynamics of Brent and WTI crude oil prices, TTF gas market and Henry Hub, sanctions risks, refineries and oil products, electricity, coal, and renewable energy sources. A global overview of the energy sector market for investors and companies.
As of Friday, February 13, 2026, the global energy sector is entering the session with a conflicting set of signals: forecasts for oil demand are becoming more cautious, yet geopolitics, sanctions, and logistical disruptions are increasing volatility in oil, gas, and oil products. In Europe, electricity and carbon regulation have regained focus, while coal in Asia faces spot risks due to export uncertainty. Below are key benchmarks and events significant for investors, oil and gas companies, refineries, and trading on global markets.
- Oil: prices remain around psychological levels, but the supply-demand balance appears less tight on paper than in physical trading.
- Gas: Europe enters the injection season with an increased regulatory premium and sensitivity to LNG and weather; the US remains a separate curve with its own storage cycle.
- Electricity and renewable energy: policies regarding the ETS and energy costs for industry are becoming market factors on par with raw materials.
- Refineries and oil products: margins are supported by a structural shortage of capacity and local disruptions, but infrastructure risks are rising.
Market in numbers: oil, gas, electricity, and coal — key prices
| Indicator | Price | Daily Change | Comments |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brent Oil | $69.21/barrel | -0.27% | Global benchmark for oil; risk premium depends on sanctions and logistics |
| WTI Oil | $64.55/barrel | -0.12% | US; sensitive to inventory levels and refinery utilization |
| Henry Hub Gas (NYMEX, NGH26) | $3.246/MMBtu | +2.75% | US; affects electricity and demand from generation |
| Dutch TTF Gas (CME, TTFH6) | €32.885/MWh | +2.23% | Europe; functions of LNG, weather, regulations, and storage levels |
| Coal (Newcastle benchmark) | $115.00/ton | ≈+0.09% | Indicative level for the maritime coal market; important for electricity and Asia |
Oil: revising demand against 'hard' geopolitics
Market balance and demand expectations
In focus is the dissonance between the macro forecast and trading reality. The revision of demand forecasts and expectations of an oversupply are shaping a basic scenario of "range-bound" oil over the coming weeks. However, in the physical supply chain, the risk premium remains high due to sanctions, restrictions on "grey" streams, as well as infrastructural threats along routes and processing locations. For investors, this means that even moderate oil prices may be accompanied by high intra-day volatility and an expansion of spreads across grades.
Sanctions, Hormuz, and risk premiums
The sanctions factor becomes a key driver of the "availability" of barrels, not just their price. New restrictions on carriers and trading chains increase the importance of insurance, compliance, and access to port infrastructure. In the coming sessions, the market will be particularly sensitive to signals regarding de-escalation or, conversely, news concerning the expansion of restrictions and incidents in tight spots of global logistics.
Gas and LNG: European risk profile and American curve
For the global energy landscape, gas remains both a "transitional" and strategic commodity: it defines the margin of electricity and the competitiveness of industry in Europe, while in the US it acts as a bridge between production and LNG exports. The European TTF strengthens amidst sensitivities to weather, the status of LNG supplies, and regulatory limitations on Russian volumes and their marketing.
- Europe: the market enters the pre-season for injections, where gas prices easily respond to any signals regarding LNG availability and potential contract restrictions.
- USA: Henry Hub remains a hostage to seasonal storage dynamics and short-term weather shocks; this influence is amplified by rising demand from generation and export infrastructure.
Electricity and carbon: ETS as a market factor
In 2026, electricity increasingly responds not only to fuel balance (gas/coal) but also to political and regulatory signals. The discussion around adjustments to ETS and the industry's struggle to lower costs are bringing "politics" back into the forward curve equation. In practice, this means that investors in generation and networks will be evaluating not just CAPEX and fuel prices, but also the degree of regulatory predictability.
Global linkage 'gas → electricity → industry'
Two effects are vital for global geo-targeting. The first is the relative cost of electricity across regions (Europe vs US/Asia), impacting capital migration in energy-intensive sectors. The second is the resilience of networks and the availability of capacity: extreme weather and military risks heighten price peaks and enhance the value of flexibility (balancing capacities, storage, rapid repairs).
Oil products and refineries: margins grow, but 'physics' becomes fragile
The oil products segment is supported by structurally limited refining: the global base of refineries is growing slower than the demand for reliable fuel supply. Against this backdrop, any cessation at a major refinery, whether due to an accident, maintenance, or force majeure, quickly reflects on diesel and gasoline spreads and on premiums to regional prices.
- USA: margin recovery at independent refiners increases interest in sector stocks and "crack spread" strategies.
- Eurasia: risks of attacks on infrastructure and refinery shutdowns are once again a pricing factor for oil products and logistics.
- Europe: changes in ownership and management regimes of refineries heighten the role of sanctions compliance and corporate governance.
Renewable energy and energy transition: adjustment of targets and hidden grid costs
Renewable energy remains a strategic direction, but the pace and structure of the transition increasingly depend on grid constraints and policy. Adjustments to national plans in Europe show that "planned" trajectories for capacity installation are not guaranteed: the market is increasingly factoring in project delays, increasing connection costs, and reassessment of subsidies.
- For investors in renewable energy, a key risk is not only the price of capital but also the speed of grid connections and cost allocation rules.
- For industry, predictability of electricity costs and availability of long-term PPAs/contracts is crucial.
Coal: Asian spot risks and the role of fuel in the energy balance
Despite the growing share of renewable energy, coal remains a "backup" fuel for electricity in many economies, especially in Asia. Any export restrictions and disruptions in spot supplies quickly lead to price momentum — influencing gas, demand for oil products in generation (fuel oil/distillates), and overall energy inflation.
Key takeaway for the energy sector
The coal market in 2026 is important not so much as a "long-term bet," but as a source of short shortages and shocks that translate into gas and electricity through fuel substitution.
Logistics, sanctions, and insurance: where the supply chain may 'break'
Oil and gas trading in 2026 increasingly depends on the throughput of bottlenecks and the status of vessels. Under pressure from sanctions, the role of the "shadow fleet" is growing, routes are being complicated, and transactional costs are rising — from insurance to port procedures. In the short term, the market will respond to any changes in transit status in Hormuz and to the expansion of sanction lists, including measures against third-country infrastructure and ports.
What investors should monitor on Friday, February 13, 2026: scenarios and ideas for charts
For investors and corporate planning audiences in oil and gas and energy, tomorrow's critical factors include not only "absolute prices" but also the market regime: range/trend, liquidity, compliance risk, and the probability of force majeure events.
Session checklist
- Oil: maintaining Brent around $70 and the dynamics of spreads between grades (a signal of the availability of "clean" barrels).
- Gas: resilience of TTF above/below 30-35 EUR/MWh as an indicator of the European stress regime; reaction to news about LNG.
- Electricity: any statements regarding ETS and mechanisms to support industry; impact on utility stocks and power forward curves.
- Refineries and oil products: news regarding maintenance/shutdowns of refineries and the dynamics of margins; fuel logistics risks.
- Coal: signals regarding normalization/enforcement of export restrictions in Asia as a driver for spot prices.
Where charts/diagrams are appropriate (do not insert images)
- Line chart: Brent and WTI over 30 days + marking key news (sanctions/incidents/reports).
- Spread diagram: TTF vs Henry Hub (in equivalence) as an indicator of regional gas imbalances.
- Bar chart: indicative levels of coal/gas/ETS and their contributions to electricity costs across regions.
- Map-scheme: logistics bottlenecks (Hormuz, key ports/hubs) with a qualitative assessment of sanctions risk.
As of February 13, 2026, the baseline scenario for commodity markets appears "moderately oversupplied" according to models, yet "premium" concerning risks in real supplies. For energy sector participants, the optimal strategy remains a combination of hedging oil and gas, compliance discipline, and increased attention to infrastructure risks in refineries and oil product logistics.
