Current News in the Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector as of Friday, December 19, 2025: Oil, Gas, Electricity, Renewable Energy Sources, Coal, Refineries, and Key Trends in the Global Energy Market
As December draws to a close, significant changes are observed in the global fuel and energy sector. The combination of multi-year lows in raw material prices and geopolitical shifts creates a mixed backdrop that captures the attention of investors and market participants. On one hand, oil is trading at its lowest levels in years due to expectations of oversupply and signs of progress in resolving the conflict in Eastern Europe. On the other hand, gas prices in Europe continue to decline even amid winter's chill due to record liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies. Simultaneously, global coal demand peaked in 2025 and is nearing the onset of a sustainable decline as the energy transition accelerates.
In this context, governments and companies are adapting their strategies. Some are making efforts to ease sanctions-related tensions and stabilize supplies, while others are ramping up investments in both the oil and gas sector and renewable energy. Below is a detailed overview of key events and trends in the oil, gas, electricity, and raw materials sectors as of the current date.
Oil and Oil Products
The global oil market remains under pressure, with prices hovering close to multi-year lows. The North Sea Brent blend is holding around $60 per barrel (at times dipping below this psychological threshold), while American WTI is trading around $55 – these levels mark the lowest since 2020. The primary factors contributing to the decrease in oil prices include:
- Expected Supply Surplus: A surplus of production over demand is forecast for 2026. Non-OPEC countries (primarily the USA and Brazil) have ramped up production to record levels. At the same time, the growth rate of global demand is slowing – according to industry forecasts, demand growth in 2025 is expected to be about +0.7 million barrels/day (compared to more than +2 million in 2023), leading to inventory accumulation and downward pressure on prices.
- Hopes for Peace in Ukraine: Progress in negotiations between Russia and Ukraine has spurred expectations for a partial lifting of sanctions and a return of some Russian oil exports to the market. The prospect of a ceasefire has bolstered forecasts for increased supply, contributing to the decline in oil prices.
- OPEC+ Policy: After several months of gradual increases in production quotas, the OPEC+ alliance has decided to halt further increases in Q1 2026. The cartel is signaling caution amid the risk of market oversaturation and exhibiting a readiness to adjust production if necessary, although no official announcement of unplanned actions has been made.
Influenced by these factors, oil prices have significantly decreased compared to the beginning of the year. There is a likelihood that Brent and WTI will close out 2025 at the lowest levels since mid-2020. The decline in raw material prices has already been reflected in the oil products market: gasoline and diesel have decreased in most regions. In the USA, retail gasoline prices have dropped nationwide ahead of the holiday season, reducing consumer expenditures. European refiners, who have switched to alternative raw materials instead of Russian oil, are enjoying stable supply lines. Global refineries continue to maintain a high level of processing, benefiting from cheaper oil, although demand growth for fuel remains moderate. The processing margin overall remains stable; there is no shortage of gasoline or diesel on the global market.
Gas Market and LNG
The gas market is currently facing a paradoxical situation: despite an early and cold winter, natural gas prices in Europe continue to decrease. Dutch TTF hub prices have fallen below €30 per MWh – a minimal level since spring 2024, nearly 90% lower than the crisis peaks of 2022 and about 45% below prices at the beginning of this year. The primary reason is an unprecedented influx of liquefied natural gas, which compensates for a decrease in pipeline supplies from Russia. Gas storage facilities in the EU are approximately 75% full, which, while still below historical averages for December, combined with record LNG imports, ensures adequate resources for stable prices even during cold spells.
- Europe: High volumes of LNG imports have lowered gas prices despite increased consumption in the heating season. In 2025, more than half of European LNG imports were sourced from the USA, redirecting cargoes from Asian markets. This has led to a noticeable reduction in the spread between European prices and lower American gas prices.
- USA: In North America, by contrast, gas futures have risen amid forecasts of anomalous cold weather. Prices at the Henry Hub have climbed above $5 per MMBtu due to the threat of an Arctic vortex and the associated surge in heating demand. However, domestic gas production in the USA remains high, which is curbing price increases as the weather normalizes.
- Asia: The Asian gas market is relatively balanced as the year approaches its end. Demand in key countries (China, South Korea, Japan) has been moderate, allowing some additional LNG cargoes to be diverted to Europe. Prices at Asian hubs, such as JKM, have remained stable and avoided sharp spikes as competition for cargoes between Europe and Asia has lessened compared to the situation in 2022.
As a result, the global gas market is entering winter with a much greater sense of confidence than a year ago. Existing reserves and flexible import supplies are sufficient to cover demand even during severe cold spells. The mobility of the LNG market plays a critical role: tankers are rapidly redirected to favor Europe, smoothing regional imbalances. If the weather this winter remains within historical averages, the pricing situation for gas consumers will remain favorable.
Coal Sector
The traditional coal sector reached historical peak consumption in 2025, but the outlook indicates that a slowdown is imminent. According to the International Energy Agency, global coal consumption grew by approximately 0.5% – reaching a record 8.85 billion tons. Coal remains the largest source of electricity generation in the world, but its share is expected to gradually decrease: analysts predict demand for coal will plateau followed by decline towards 2030, driven by the expansion of renewable energy and nuclear generation. Regional dynamics, however, differ:
- India: Coal consumption has decreased (only the third decline in the last 50 years) due to an exceptionally strong monsoon season. Abundant rainfall has boosted hydropower generation and reduced demand for electricity from coal-fired power plants.
- USA: Conversely, coal use has increased. This has been aided by high natural gas prices in the first half of the year and political support for the industry. The new presidential administration in Washington has suspended the closure of several coal power plants, temporarily increasing coal demand for generation.
- China: The world's largest coal consumer has maintained usage at last year's levels. China burns 30% more coal than the rest of the world combined, but a gradual decline in consumption is expected by the end of the decade as enormous capacities of wind, solar, and nuclear energy come online.
Therefore, 2025 is likely to be the peak year for the coal industry. Moving forward, increasing competition from gas (where feasible) and particularly from renewable sources will push coal out of the energy mix in many countries. Nevertheless, in the short term, coal remains in demand in developing economies in Asia, where energy consumption growth currently outpaces the construction of new clean capacities.
Electricity and Renewable Energy
The electricity sector continues its transformation under the influence of climate agendas and fuel price fluctuations. In 2025, the share of renewable energy sources in global electricity generation reached new heights: many countries have introduced record capacities of solar and wind power. For example, China has been actively increasing solar generation, while new offshore wind farms and large photovoltaic projects have been brought online in Europe and the USA, stimulated by government support and private investments. As a result, global investments in green energy remain at high levels, closely approaching fossil fuel investment volumes.
However, the rapid growth of renewables poses challenges for ensuring the stability of energy systems. In Europe, this winter has highlighted the impact of variable weather: periods of low wind and short daylight hours have increased the load on traditional generation sources. At the beginning of the season, EU countries were forced to temporarily boost gas and coal generation due to an anticyclone that caused a drop in output from wind farms, leading to price increases for electricity in certain regions. Nevertheless, thanks to the growth of renewable capacities and significant gas share in the energy balance, serious supply issues have been avoided. Governments and energy companies are also actively investing in energy storage systems and upgrading grids to smooth peak loads and integrate renewables.
Climate commitments from countries continue to shape the direction of the industry. At the recent global climate summit (COP30) in Brazil, calls to accelerate the energy transition were voiced. A number of countries have agreed to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030 and substantially improve energy efficiency. Simultaneously, there is a revival of interest in nuclear energy in many regions: new nuclear power plants are being constructed, and the lifespan of existing ones is being extended to ensure low-emission baseload generation. Overall, the electricity sector is moving towards a cleaner and more sustainable future, although the transition period requires a delicate balance between supply reliability and environmental goals.
Geopolitics and Sanctions
Geopolitical factors continue to exert a significant influence on global energy markets. The focus remains on the conflict in Eastern Europe and the associated restrictions:
- Peace Talks: December has brought the most significant progress in peaceful dialogue regarding Ukraine since the conflict began. The USA has expressed readiness to provide Ukraine with security guarantees akin to NATO, and European mediators note a constructive turn in negotiations. Hopes for a ceasefire have grown, although Moscow states it will not agree to territorial concessions. Growing optimism regarding the cessation of hostilities has fueled discussions about the prospects for a partial lifting of oil and gas sanctions against Russia in the future.
- Sanction Pressure: Simultaneously, Western countries have signaled a willingness to escalate pressure if the peace process stalls. Washington has prepared another package of restrictions against the Russian energy sector, which could be implemented in case of a breakdown of negotiations. Earlier this autumn, the USA and the UK expanded sanctions against oil giants "Rosneft" and "Lukoil", complicating their ability to attract investments and access technologies.
- Infrastructure Risks: Ongoing hostilities and sabotage continue to threaten energy facilities. The Ukrainian side has recently intensified drone strikes against oil infrastructure deep within Russia. In particular, fires were reported at refineries in the Krasnodar region and on the Volga due to drone strikes. Although these incidents have only slightly reduced the overall fuel supply level, they underline the persistent military risks for the industry until a durable peace is achieved.
- Venezuela: In Latin America, geopolitics also impacts the oil market. Following a partial easing of sanctions against Venezuela this autumn, the USA has tightened control over compliance with the terms of the deal. In December, an incident occurred with the detention of a tanker carrying Venezuelan oil due to suspected violations of licensing. The state company PDVSA has faced demands from buyers to increase discounts and revise supply terms. This has complicated Venezuela's ability to boost exports despite the recent U.S. allowance to temporarily increase production in exchange for political concessions from Caracas.
Overall, the sanction standoff between Russia and the West, along with other international disagreements, continues to introduce uncertainty into the global energy sector. Investors are closely monitoring political developments, as any changes – from breakthroughs in peace negotiations to the imposition of new restrictions – can significantly impact the prices of oil, gas, and other energy resources.
Corporate News and Projects
Major energy companies and infrastructure projects around the world are concluding the year with a series of important events and decisions:
- Aramco Enters the Indian Market: Saudi Aramco has renewed plans to invest in a major refining complex in India. The company is close to acquiring a stake in the large West Coast Refinery project, aiming to cement its position in the rapidly growing Indian market and ensure long-term channels for distributing its oil.
- New Project in Guyana: A consortium led by ExxonMobil has approved the development of another large offshore field in Guyana, targeting production start-up by 2028. Oil production in Guyana continues to grow rapidly, strengthening the country's position as one of the most dynamically developing new oil producers.
- Record Wind Farm in the North Sea: The construction of the world's largest offshore wind farm, Dogger Bank, with a total capacity of 3.6 GW, has been completed in the North Sea. The project is implemented by a consortium of European energy companies and can supply electricity to up to 6 million households in the UK. This milestone marks a significant achievement in the development of renewable energy and demonstrates the potential of large-scale green projects.
Overall, players in the oil, gas, and energy sectors are adapting to the new market realities. Some are reassessing their asset portfolios in light of geopolitical risks and shifting market conditions (like Aramco, exploring new sales markets), while others are capitalizing on favorable conditions to increase production and implement projects (as seen with ExxonMobil and partners in Guyana). Additionally, investment continues in both traditional oil and gas sectors and the energy transition – from wind energy to hydrogen. The industry faces the necessity of balancing short-term profitability and long-term decarbonization goals, and this balance is defining the key strategic decisions of companies as they approach 2026.
