Global Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector News for Saturday, February 7, 2026: Oil, Gas, Energy, Renewables, Coal, Refineries, Electricity, and Key Events in the Global Energy Market.
By early February 2026, the situation in the global oil and gas market is defined by opposing factors: an oversupply and ongoing geopolitical tensions. Western countries continue to tighten sanctions on energy exports from Russia (the price cap on Russian oil has been reduced to $44.1 per barrel since February), while key importers like India are reassessing their purchasing strategies under external diplomatic pressure. However, oil prices remain relatively stable (Brent around $68 per barrel) due to expectations of a supply surplus. The European gas market is experiencing a winter without panic, despite a rapid decrease in gas inventories, aided by mild weather and high LNG supplies. Meanwhile, the global energy transition is gaining momentum: renewable energy capacity is hitting records, although traditional resources—oil, gas, and coal—still play a crucial role in global energy supply. This overview presents the relevant trends in the fuel and energy sector (oil, gas, oil products, electricity, coal, renewables) as of February 7, 2026.
Oil Market: Supply Surplus Amid Sanctions
At the beginning of February, oil prices stabilized after moderate growth: North Sea Brent is trading around $68 per barrel, while American WTI is at approximately $64. The market is balancing between oversupply and geopolitical risks. A significant surplus of oil is expected in the first quarter of 2026—with the IEA estimating that global supply may exceed demand by approximately 4 million barrels per day. Simultaneously, supply disruptions (from Iran, Venezuela, and others) prevent prices from dropping significantly below current levels. The situation is influenced by several factors:
- Increased Production and Slowing Demand. The OPEC+ alliance, having lifted restrictions for a prolonged period, increased production in 2025; however, at the start of 2026, it paused further increases in quotas. Nonetheless, outside OPEC, supply is rising, with the USA, Brazil, and other countries reaching record production levels. At the same time, global oil demand is slowing, reflecting a tempered state in the world economy: China’s economy is expected to grow by about 5% in 2026 (down from over 8% in 2021-2022), while high interest rates in the US and Europe restrict consumption. The IEA projects a mere increase in global oil demand of about 0.9 million barrels per day in 2026 (in comparison, demand growth exceeded 2 million in 2023).
- Sanctions and Geopolitical Risks. At the beginning of February, new sanctions came into effect: the EU and the UK lowered the price cap on Russian oil to $44.1 per barrel (down from $47.6), aiming to cut Moscow's oil revenues. Concurrently, the threat of supply disruptions remains from problematic regions. The US has taken a firmer stance towards Iran, not ruling out forceful measures against its oil infrastructure; the political crisis in Venezuela has temporarily reduced exports; drone attacks and accidents in Kazakhstan have lowered production in certain fields. All of these factors increase the risk premium in the oil market, partially offsetting the pressure of oversupply.
- Realignment of Export Flows. Major Asian consumption countries are adjusting their oil import structures. India, which previously imported over 2 million barrels per day of Russian oil, has started to reduce these purchases under Western pressure, with January 2026 volumes falling to approximately 1.2 million barrels per day—the lowest in nearly a year. While New Delhi does not plan to completely abandon Russian hydrocarbons, the reduced purchases compel Moscow to redirect exports to other markets, primarily China. Chinese refineries are increasing their purchases of Russian crude at reduced prices, strengthening the energy partnership between Beijing and Moscow.
Gas Market: Declining Stocks in Europe and Record LNG Imports
By February, the European gas market remains relatively calm, though underground gas storage facilities (UGSF) are rapidly depleting as winter progresses. Stocks in Europe fell to approximately 44% of total capacity by the end of January—this is the lowest level for this time of year since 2022 and significantly below the ten-year average (around 58%). However, mild weather and stable liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies are preventing shortages and price shocks. Gas futures (TTF index) are holding at moderate levels, reflecting market confidence in resource availability. The situation is shaped by several key trends:
- Depletion of Stocks and the Need for Replenishment. Winter consumption is leading to a rapid decline in the volumes of gas in storage. If current trends continue, UGSF in the EU may reach only about 30% capacity by the end of March. To restore stock levels to a comfortable 80-90% before next winter, European importers will need to inject around 60 billion cubic meters of gas during the off-season. Achieving this goal requires maximum purchasing during the warmer months, especially as a significant portion of imported gas is consumed immediately. The market faces a challenging task of replenishing underground reserves by autumn—this will be a serious test for traders and infrastructure.
- Record LNG Supplies. The reduction in pipeline supplies is being compensated by unprecedented import levels of liquefied natural gas. In 2025, European countries imported about 175 billion cubic meters of LNG (+30% compared to the previous year), with forecasts suggesting that imports could reach 185 billion cubic meters in 2026. The increase in purchases is ensured by a broader global supply: new LNG plants in the USA, Canada, Qatar, and other countries are leading to an approximate 7% rise in global LNG production this year (the highest growth rate since 2019). The European market hopes to once again get through the heating season by securing high LNG purchases, especially since the EU has decided to completely cease LNG imports from Russia by 2027, requiring a replacement of approximately 33 billion cubic meters annually with additional LNG volumes.
- Eastern Reorientation of Exports. Russia, having lost its European gas market, is increasing supplies to the east. Pipeline flow volumes through the Power of Siberia pipeline to China have reached record levels (close to the design capacity of approximately 22 billion cubic meters per year), while Moscow is accelerating negotiations for the construction of a second pipeline through Mongolia. Russian producers are also increasing LNG exports to Asia from the Far East and the Arctic. However, even with the eastern direction, overall gas exports from Russia have significantly declined compared to pre-2022 levels. The long-term realignment of gas flows continues, establishing a new global gas supply landscape.
Oil Products and Refining Market: Capacity Growth and Stabilization Measures
The global oil products market (gasoline, diesel fuel, jet fuel, etc.) at the beginning of 2026 shows relative stability following a period of upheaval. Demand for motor fuels remains high, driven by the recovering transport activity and industrial production. Simultaneously, increased global refining capacities are facilitating the fulfillment of this demand. After shortages and price peaks in recent years, the market supply of gasoline and diesel is gradually normalizing, although disruptions still occur in certain regions. The main features of the sector are as follows:
- New Refineries and Increased Refining. Major refining capacities are coming online in Asia and the Middle East, increasing total fuel output. For example, the modernization of Bahrain's Bapco refinery expanded its capacity from 267,000 to 380,000 barrels per day, with new plants launched in China and India. According to OPEC, the global refining capacity is expected to increase by approximately 600,000 barrels per day annually from 2025 to 2027. The increase in oil product supplies has already led to a decline in refining margins compared to record levels of 2022-2023, alleviating price pressure for consumers.
- Price Stabilization and Local Disbalances. Global average gasoline and diesel prices have moved down from peaks, reflecting the lower oil prices and increased supply. However, local spikes are still possible: for example, winter frosts in North America temporarily raised demand for heating fuel, and certain countries in Europe continue to see a heightened premium on diesel due to adjustments in logistics chains following the embargo on Russian supplies. Governments are in some cases employing smoothing mechanisms—from lowering fuel excises to releasing parts of strategic reserves—to keep prices under control during sudden spikes in demand.
- State Regulation to Ensure Market Stability. In some countries, authorities continue to intervene in the fuel market to stabilize supply. In Russia, following the fuel crisis of 2025, restrictions on the export of oil products remain: the ban on exporting gasoline and diesel fuel for independent traders has been extended until summer 2026, with oil companies granted only limited permissions for exports. Additionally, the price damping mechanism, whereby the government compensates refineries for the difference between domestic and export fuel prices, has been extended to stimulate supplies to the domestic market. These measures have alleviated the gasoline shortage at filling stations but highlight the importance of manual market management. In other regions (e.g., some Asian countries), authorities are also resorting to temporary measures of support—lowering taxes, subsidizing transportation costs, or increasing imports—to mitigate the effects of sharp price fluctuations on fuel.
Electricity Sector: Growing Demand and Network Upgrades
The global electricity sector is experiencing accelerated demand growth accompanied by significant infrastructure challenges. The IEA estimates that global electricity consumption will grow by more than 3.5% annually over the next five years—substantially outpacing overall energy consumption growth. The drivers include the electrification of transport (increasing EV fleets), the digitalization of the economy (expansion of data centers, AI development), and climate factors (active use of air conditioning in hot climates). Following a period of stagnation in the 2010s, demand for electricity is rising again even in developed countries. Simultaneously, energy systems require massive investments to maintain reliability and connect new capacities. Key trends in the electricity sector are as follows:
- Modernization and Expansion of Networks. The growing load on networks necessitates modernization and the construction of new power transmission lines. Many countries are launching programs to renew network facilities, accelerate the construction of power lines, and digitize energy flow management. According to the IEA, there are now more than 2500 GW of new generation and large consumer capacities worldwide waiting to connect to electrical networks—bureaucratic delays are measured in years. Overcoming these "bottlenecks" is becoming critically important: annual investments in the electricity networks are projected to need to grow by 50% by 2030; otherwise, generation expansion will outpace infrastructure capabilities.
- Supply Reliability and Energy Storage. Energy companies are adopting new technologies to maintain stable electricity supply amid record loads. Energy storage systems—industrial battery farms with rapidly growing capacity are being built in California and Texas (USA), Germany, the UK, Australia, and other regions. Such batteries help balance daily peaks and integrate uneven renewable energy generation. Simultaneously, network protection is being enhanced: the industry invests in cybersecurity and equipment upgrades, considering the risks of compromised reliability due to extreme weather, infrastructure wear, and cybersecurity threats. Governments and electricity generation companies worldwide allocate significant funds to enhance the flexibility and resilience of energy systems to avoid widespread outages amid an increasing dependence of the economy on electricity.
Renewable Energy: Record Growth and New Challenges
The transition to clean energy continues to accelerate. The year 2025 was a record year for renewable energy (RE) capacity additions—primarily solar and wind power plants. Preliminary IEA data indicates that in 2025, the share of RE in the total global electricity generation equaled that of coal (approximately 30%), with nuclear generation also reaching a record level. In 2026, the clean energy sector is expected to continue increasing production at an accelerated pace. Global investments in the energy transition are reaching new highs: according to BNEF, over $2.3 trillion was invested in clean energy and electric transport projects in 2025 (+8% compared to 2024). Governments of major economies are strengthening support for green technologies, viewing them as a driver of sustainable growth. The European Union has adopted stricter climate goals requiring accelerated commissioning of zero-carbon capacities and reform of emission markets. In the US, stimulus packages for renewable energy and electric vehicles continue to be implemented. However, the rapid development of the sector is accompanied by certain challenges:
- Material Shortages and Rising Project Costs. The booming demand for RE equipment has led to rising prices for critically important components. In 2024-2025, record prices were noted for polysilicon (a key material for solar panels), as well as significant price increases for copper, lithium, and rare earth metals necessary for turbines and batteries. Rising production costs and supply chain disruptions have occasionally slowed the implementation of new RE projects and reduced manufacturers' margins. However, by the latter half of 2025, prices for many materials stabilized due to expanded production and measures taken to eliminate bottlenecks.
- Integration of RE into Energy Systems. The increasing share of solar and wind power plants is raising new requirements for energy systems. The variable nature of RE generation necessitates the development of backup capacities and storage systems for balancing—ranging from fast-reserve gas turbines to industrial batteries and pumped storage stations. The electricity network infrastructure is also being modernized to transmit energy from remote RE locations to consumers. Accelerated development in these areas should help contain CO2 emissions: according to IEA forecasts, even with rising electricity consumption, global emissions from the electricity sector could remain at mid-2020s levels if low-carbon capacities are commissioned timely and adequately.
Coal Sector: High Demand in Asia Amid Phasing Out Efforts
Global coal consumption remains at historically high levels, despite efforts to decarbonize the economy. According to the IEA, global coal demand rose by 0.5% in 2025, reaching approximately 8.85 billion tons—a new record. It is expected that in 2026, coal consumption will remain close to this level with a slight decline (effectively "plateauing"). The increase in coal burning is concentrated in emerging economies in Asia, while Western countries are gradually reducing their reliance on this fuel. Key trends in the coal industry include:
- Asian Demand Supports Production. Countries in South and East Asia (China, India, Vietnam, etc.) continue to actively utilize coal for electricity generation and industry. For many developing economies, coal remains an accessible and important resource, providing base load generation. During peak consumption periods (for instance, during extreme heat or harsh winters), coal-fired power plants help cover maximum loads when renewables and gas generation fall short. Sustained demand in Asia is supporting high production levels in major coal-producing countries, temporarily alleviating pressure on the sector.
- Transition from Coal in Developed Countries. Simultaneously, developed economies are accelerating their phasing out of coal generation. The EU, the US, the UK, and other nations are continuing to retire older coal-fired power plants and have imposed restrictions on launching new projects. Stated government goals include complete removal of coal from the electricity sector within the next few decades (with the EU and the UK targeting the 2030s). International climate initiatives are also amplifying pressure: financial institutions are reducing funding for coal projects, and at UN negotiations, countries are committing to gradually close down coal capacities. These trends, in the long run, limit investments in the coal sector and complicate development plans for companies.
- Ambiguous Prospects for Business. For coal mining companies, the current scenario is twofold. On one hand, high demand (primarily in Asia) is ensuring record revenues and immediate opportunities for modernization investments. On the other hand, strategic prospects are deteriorating: new projects are associated with the risk that in 10-15 years, coal may lose a significant market share. A stringent environmental agenda increases uncertainty—companies are forced to incorporate gradual diversification into their strategies. Many industry players are reinvesting current super-profits into adjacent sectors (metallurgical raw materials, chemical production, renewable energy) to prepare for a diminishing role of coal in the future energy balance.
Outlook and Prospects
Overall, the global fuel and energy complex is entering 2026 with mixed signals. The oil market is balancing between anticipated supply surpluses and ongoing geopolitical threats, which are likely to keep prices within a relatively narrow range without sharp spikes (barring unforeseen events). The gas sector is facing a test of replenishing stocks in Europe after winter: historically low UGSF levels suggest that the major intrigue of the year will be whether importers can secure sufficient volumes of LNG and gas from alternative sources to restore stocks by autumn.
Energy sector companies (both oil and gas and electricity) and investors continue to adapt to the new reality. Some oil and gas corporations are increasing production and modernizing refineries to benefit from current demand for traditional energy sources, while other players are investing more actively in renewables, networks, and energy storage, focusing on long-term decarbonization trends. Investment volumes in "green" energy are already comparable to those in the fossil sector, but satisfying growing global demand can only be achieved with a significant share of oil and gas. For investors and participants in the energy market, the main challenge is to balance strategies to capitalize on conventional market opportunities without missing out on the advantages of the energy transition. In the coming months, the industry's attention will be directed towards OPEC+ decisions, regulatory actions, successes in scaling renewables, infrastructure development, and macroeconomic factors (economic growth rates, inflation, and central bank policies), all of which will impact energy demand dynamics. The global energy market remains dynamic and ambiguous, requiring companies and investors to be flexible and maintain long-term vision amidst constant change.
