Current News in the Oil, Gas, and Energy Sector for Friday, January 9, 2026: Oil and Gas Market, Energy, Renewables, Coal, Oil Products, Refineries, and Key Global Trends in the Energy Sector.
The key events in the global fuel and energy complex on January 9, 2026, draw the attention of investors and market participants due to a combination of oversupply and escalating geopolitical tensions. In the early days of the year, the price of Brent crude fell below the psychological mark of $60 per barrel amidst an oversupply of oil and subdued demand. Simultaneously, unprecedented actions by the United States in Venezuela—namely, the capture and arrest of President Nicolás Maduro, followed by plans to resume the export of Venezuelan oil—are reshaping raw material supply routes and aggravating relations between Washington and Beijing. The European gas market is navigating the peak of winter in a stable condition: high storage levels and record LNG imports are keeping prices at moderate levels. The global energy transition is also gaining momentum: new records in electricity generation from renewable sources (RES) are being recorded worldwide, although traditional energy resources remain necessary for the reliability of energy systems. In Russia, after last year's fuel crisis, measures for state regulation of the domestic oil product market continue, including the extension of export restrictions. Below is a detailed overview of the key news and trends in the oil, gas, electric power, and raw materials sectors as of this date.
Oil Market: Oversupply Pressures Prices, OPEC+ Signals Readiness to Act
Global oil prices are under significant pressure at the beginning of 2026 due to supply exceeding demand. The price of North Sea Brent crude has dropped to approximately $58–59, falling below $60 for the first time in years, while American WTI trades around $55 per barrel. According to industry experts, total oil production rose significantly in 2025 (OPEC countries increased exports, and non-OPEC gains were even more substantial), potentially leading to a supply surplus of up to 2–3 million barrels per day in the first half of 2026. Meanwhile, the growth of the global economy is slowing, and demand for oil is increasing only by about 1% per year (compared to typical growth of 1.5% before the crisis), exacerbating the market's oversupply situation. Another factor putting pressure on oil prices is geopolitics: the unexpected US operation in Venezuela and plans to lift the oil embargo on Caracas have led to expectations of significant volumes of "new" Venezuelan oil entering the market. Market participants are factoring in this potential supply increase into prices, contributing to further declines. Under these conditions, the OPEC+ alliance is contemplating emergency support measures for the market. Saudi Arabia and its partners signal readiness to return to production cuts if oil prices continue to fall below levels that are comfortable for producers. While no new official agreements have been announced, the rhetoric of key players enables investors to hope for coordinated actions capable of stabilizing the oil market.
Gas Market: Europe Confidently Navigates Winter Thanks to Reserves and Record LNG Imports
The gas market continues to focus on Europe, which demonstrates a much more resilient position compared to the crisis winters of 2022-2023. EU countries welcomed the year 2026 with underground gas storage filled to over 60% capacity on average—an unprecedented supply level for mid-winter, significantly exceeding historical norms. Mild weather in December, combined with record volumes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies, allowed Europeans to reduce fuel withdrawals from storage. As a result, in early January, gas prices in Europe remained relatively low: the key Dutch TTF index fluctuated around €28–30 per MWh (approximately $9–10 per MMBtu). Although winter cold snaps have slightly increased demand and prices have risen modestly in recent weeks, they remain significantly lower than the peak levels of two years ago.
European energy companies are successfully compensating for the cessation of pipeline supplies from Russia by increasing LNG imports from around the world. In 2025, LNG imports to Europe grew by approximately 25% year-on-year, reaching about 127 million tonnes—mainly driven by supplies from the USA, Qatar, and African countries. Newly introduced floating LNG regasification terminals (in Germany, the Netherlands, and other countries) have expanded reception capacities and reinforced the region's energy security. Analysts expect that by the end of the heating season, the European Union will retain significant reserves (around 35–40% of underground storage capacity by spring), instilling confidence in the absence of gas shortages for the next winter season. In Asia, LNG prices typically remain somewhat higher than in Europe (with the Asian JKM index staying above $10 per MMBtu), yet the global gas market is generally in a state of relative balance due to abundant supply and subdued demand.
International Politics: US Redirects Venezuelan Oil, Sanctions Confrontation Continues
Geopolitical factors are taking center stage at the beginning of 2026 and are significantly impacting energy dynamics. In the first days of the new year, the US carried out an unprecedented operation that effectively changed the regime in Venezuela: Washington announced the detention of President Nicolás Maduro and intends to lift some oil sanctions on Venezuela. The Trump administration has already arranged for the delivery of up to 50 million barrels of Venezuelan oil to the US, redirecting a significant portion of Venezuela's exports, which previously went to Asian markets, primarily China. America presents this deal as a step towards enhancing its own energy security and control over Venezuela's largest oil reserves. However, such actions have strained relations with Beijing: China, which has been the main buyer of Venezuelan oil, has sharply condemned the US intervention, labeling it a violation of sovereignty. Beijing has made it clear that it intends to protect its energy interests—specifically, it is expected to increase its purchases of Iranian and Russian oil to compensate for potential Venezuelan losses.
Meanwhile, the sanctions standoff between Russia and Western countries in the energy sector remains largely unchanged. Moscow has extended the decree prohibiting the supply of Russian oil and oil products to buyers complying with the G7/EU price cap until June 30, 2026, reaffirming its stance of non-recognition of Western restrictions. The EU and the US also maintain all previously imposed sanctions against the Russian energy sector, and global energy trade has completely adjusted to these restrictions—Russian oil and gas are primarily redirected to Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. There are no expectations for a rapid easing of the sanctions regime: direct dialogue between Russia and the West is stagnating, and energy companies must operate within a new paradigm marked by sanction barriers. Nevertheless, ongoing selective contacts (for instance, regarding grain deals or prisoner exchanges) keep minimal chances for a partial thaw in relations in the future, which could also reflect on energy markets. At this point, investors are pricing in the persistence of a stringent sanctions confrontation and the related reorientation of oil and gas flows.
Asia: India Upholds Energy Security, China Boosts Resource Production
- India: Despite unprecedented pressure from Western nations to reduce cooperation with Russia, New Delhi firmly adheres to securing its own energy security. India continues to actively purchase Russian oil and gas, stating that a sharp reduction in imports from Russia is impossible without harming the economy. Furthermore, Indian refiners are securing favorable terms: Russian companies are providing increased discounts on Urals crude (estimated at about $5 off Brent prices) to retain the Indian market. As a result, Russian oil still holds a significant share in India's import balance, while the Indian government publicly declares the unacceptability of external pressure that threatens the country's access to critically important energy resources.
- China: Amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty, Beijing is focusing on developing its own resource base. In 2025, China increased its oil and natural gas production to record levels by investing in the exploration of fields both on land and offshore. Simultaneously, the country ramped up coal production (over 4 billion tonnes per year) to ensure energy supply for industry and the population. These measures are aimed at reducing dependence on energy imports, especially as supplies could become targets for sanctions or geopolitical pressure. Moreover, China is diversifying its external sources—boosting purchases from Middle Eastern and African countries, as well as from Russia and Iran, in an effort to avoid shortages even under changing global conditions.
Energy Transition: Records in Renewable Generation and the Role of Traditional Energy
The global transition to clean energy reached new heights in 2025. Many countries recorded record electricity generation from renewable sources—solar, wind, and hydropower. There is a rapid deployment of solar and wind parks, along with growing investments in energy storage technologies and hydrogen energy. Preliminary data indicate that the total capacity of RES installations worldwide grew by more than 15% over the past year. Major energy companies and oil and gas corporations are also joining this trend, investing in renewable energy and low-carbon fuel projects to adapt to the changing market.
At the same time, experts emphasize that traditional generation—gas, coal, and nuclear—remains crucial for the stability of energy systems. Renewable energy sources are influenced by weather and seasonality, so conventional capacities are still needed to meet peak loads and ensure uninterrupted power supply. Many countries, while declaring goals to phase out fossil fuels, still plan a transitional period of 10–20 years during which oil, gas, and especially natural gas, as the cleanest fossil fuel, will serve as a “bridge” to fully green energy. Thus, the current energy transition is not an instantaneous transformation but a gradual process that combines record growth in RES with maintaining a balance between new and old energy sources.
Coal: High Demand Supports Market Stability
Despite environmental concerns, the global coal market continues to demonstrate resilience due to consistently high demand. Primarily, demand for coal remains elevated in Asia-Pacific countries: economic growth and the needs of electricity generation in China, India, and Southeast Asia ensure intense consumption of this fuel. China, the world's largest consumer and producer of coal, burned nearly record levels of coal in 2025, mining over 4 billion tonnes and satisfying a substantial share of its demand from domestic mines. India, having significant reserves, is also increasing coal usage: over 70% of the country’s electricity is still generated from coal-fired power plants, and absolute fuel consumption is rising in tandem with economic growth. Even other developing economies (Indonesia, Vietnam, Bangladesh, etc.) are commissioning new coal-fired power plants in a bid to meet the population's and industry’s electricity demands.
The global coal market supply is adapting to this demand, allowing prices to remain in a relatively narrow and predictable range. Major exporters—Indonesia, Australia, Russia, and South Africa—have increased their mining and export of thermal coal in recent years, stabilizing the supply situation. After the price peaks of 2022, thermal coal prices have returned to normal levels: current prices at the European ARA hub are around $100 per tonne (down from over $300 two years ago). The balance of supply and demand in the sector appears stable: consumers are assured of receiving the necessary fuel, while producers maintain stable sales at favorable prices. While many nations are announcing ambitious plans to reduce coal usage to achieve climate goals, in the upcoming decade, this fuel source will remain an irreplaceable energy supply for many countries, especially in Asia. Consequently, the coal sector is currently experiencing a period of relative equilibrium, where the market meets both the needs of the global economy and the profitability of extraction companies.
Russian Oil Products Market: Continuation of Measures to Stabilize Fuel Prices
In the domestic fuel market of Russia, the emergency measures enacted after last year's crisis are still in effect, aimed at preventing a further spike in gasoline and diesel prices. In the summer of 2025, the country faced an acute fuel crisis: wholesale gasoline prices hit historic highs, and fuel shortages arose in certain regions due to high seasonal demand (harvest season) and dwindling supply (several major refineries were compelled to shut down due to accidents and drone attacks). The government promptly intervened, creating a special task force led by the Deputy Prime Minister and adopting a series of decisions to saturate the domestic market with oil products. As a result, by autumn, wholesale prices were stabilized; however, the regulatory framework remains in place as the new year begins:
- Extension of the fuel export ban. The complete ban on the export of gasoline and diesel fuel introduced in August 2025 has been repeatedly extended and remains in force (at least until the end of February 2026). This measure directs additional volumes of oil products—hundreds of thousands of tonnes monthly—that were previously supplied abroad to the domestic market.
- Partial resumption of export shipments for major refineries under state control. As market balance improves, restrictions have been partially eased for vertically integrated oil companies. Since October 2025, certain large refineries have been permitted limited export shipments of fuel under government oversight. However, independent producers, oil traders, and small refineries remain under embargo, preventing the outflow of scarce resources abroad.
- Increased control over fuel distribution within the country. Authorities have tightened monitoring of oil products movement in the domestic market. Oil companies are required to prioritize domestic consumer needs and avoid exchange-related resales that inflate prices. Regulators are developing long-term mechanisms—such as direct contracts between refineries and gas station networks, bypassing the exchange—to eliminate unnecessary intermediaries and smooth out price fluctuations.
- Continuation of subsidies and a price stabilization mechanism. The government continues to provide financial support to refiners, compensating them for some of the lost revenue due to export restrictions. Budgetary subsidies and a reverse excise mechanism ("stabilizer") allow covering the difference between high global prices and lower domestic prices, encouraging refineries to direct sufficient volumes of gasoline and diesel to the domestic market.
The combination of these measures has already yielded results: the fuel crisis has been brought under control. Despite record stock prices last summer, retail prices at gas stations rose by only 5-6% since the beginning of the year, roughly in line with inflation. Filling stations across the country are currently supplied with fuel, and wholesale prices have stabilized. The government declares its readiness to extend export restrictions on oil products further into 2026, as well as to utilize state reserves to promptly supply problematic regions when necessary. Monitoring of the fuel market situation will continue at a high level to prevent new price spikes and ensure stable supplies of oil products for the economy and populace.
