Market Overview July 23, 2026: Brent and WTI Quotes, Gas TTF, OPEC+ Quotas, Refineries, Renewable Energy, and Coal

Energy and Oil Market News for July 23, 2026: Brent Above $94 Amid the Strait of Hormuz Blockade, TTF Gas Exceeds €60/MWh, OPEC+ Quotas for August, Stabilization of the Russian Fuel Market, LNG, Refineries, Electricity, RES, and Coal. Review for Investors and Energy Sector Participants

The global energy market is entering the end of July 2026 in a state not seen by traders since spring: the premium for geopolitical risk has returned to full force in prices. The escalation of the US-Iran conflict, the virtual halt of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, and the Houthis' maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia have pushed Brent crude oil above $94 a barrel — its highest level in six weeks. European gas at the TTF hub has exceeded €60 per MWh for the first time since March, while injections into underground storage are lagging behind last year’s pace. Against this backdrop, OPEC+ is maintaining a cautious tactic of increasing quotas, the Russian fuel market is gradually emerging from a sharp gasoline shortage, and the global energy transition is facing a new reality: expensive LNG is bringing coal back into the energy balance of Asia. Below is a detailed overview of key events in the oil, gas, electricity, coal, and raw material markets for investors and sector participants.

Oil Market: Geopolitical Premium Returns to Prices

Oil prices are demonstrating the most aggressive upward movements since early summer. On July 22, the price of September futures for Brent crude on the London ICE rose by more than 3%, reaching $94.14 per barrel — the first time since June 11. American WTI simultaneously increased by over 3%, climbing toward $87 per barrel. For comparison, just on July 2, Brent was trading below $71, and in mid-June it hovered around $80.5. Thus, in three weeks, the market has regained more than 30% in value.

The drivers of the current oil rally are:

• Blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Shipping traffic data indicates that on certain days last week, no vessels crossed the Strait, which accounts for about one-fifth of global maritime oil trade and a significant portion of LNG.
• Direct Attacks on Tanker Fleets. Incidents involving fires and immobilization of oil tankers while attempting to pass via southern routes have been recorded, as well as cases where crews had to abandon their vessels.
• Maritime Embargo by Houthis. Yemeni forces announced a blockade of supplies from Saudi Arabia, jeopardizing the export flows of the largest OPEC producer.
• Expansion of the Front. The USA is increasing its military presence in the region, deploying additional aviation at bases in Israel; the market is pricing in the risk of full-scale US involvement in the conflict.
• Declining Inventories. The IEA reports a reduction in global commercial oil inventories, which increases price sensitivity to any supply disruptions.

What This Means for Investors

The widening Brent-WTI spread to $7–9 per barrel is a classic indicator that the market is assessing the risk of disruption specifically in Middle Eastern logistics, rather than a global supply deficit as such. For oil companies with a diversified resource base outside the Persian Gulf, this means a temporary margin expansion. For oil traders and fuel companies, it means a sharp increase in freight and insurance rates, which are already eating into some of the price gains.

OPEC+: Cautious Increase in Quotas Instead of a Price War

The OPEC+ alliance is sticking to a conservative approach. Following a videoconference on July 5, seven countries voluntarily reducing production beyond their overall quotas — Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman — agreed to increase quotas for August by 188,000 barrels per day. The total quota for the alliance in August will be 36.019 million b/d. Both Saudi Arabia and Russia will receive an additional 62,000 b/d each.

Key parameters of the deal currently include:

1. From February to August 2026, the total quota has increased by approximately 940,000 b/d — a volume comparable to the production of a medium-sized participating country.
2. The “Seven” returns market constraints of 1.65 million b/d considering the UAE's exit from the alliance in May due to dissatisfaction with quota distribution.
3. To fully phase out voluntary restrictions, September quotas need to increase by another 188,000 b/d. The next meeting is scheduled for August 2.
4. Iraq has publicly admitted it might exit the agreement if the production limit is not raised — a factor indicating the internal fragility of the alliance.

OPEC+’s dilemma for the second half of the year is evident: analysts predict a return to structural oversupply after the situation in the Persian Gulf normalizes. The alliance will have to choose between restraining production for price stability and fighting for market share. Currently, the geopolitical premium masks this choice.

Gas Market: Europe Pays a Premium and Lags in Injection Rates

The European gas market is under double pressure. Prices at the Dutch hub TTF exceeded €60 per MWh for the first time since mid-March on July 20, and then corrected to €59 on Tuesday. In dollar terms, the price approached $700 per thousand cubic meters. Since the beginning of July, the European gas benchmark has risen by about 35%, while the Asian JKM Platts index has increased by around 25%.

The main problem for the European Union is not so much the price as the pace of filling underground gas storage:

• The heating season of 2025–2026 concluded with extremely low stocks: as of April 1, underground storage facilities were filled to just 27.66% — 13.4 percentage points below the average for the previous five years.
• By July 19, the filling level had only reached 53.7%, which is 15.7 percentage points below the five-year average. The gap is not shrinking; it is expanding.
• Daily injections in July have dropped to 270 million cubic meters compared to 308 million in June. A year ago, in mid-summer, the average daily refill was 338 million cubic meters — a quarter more.
• The competition for LNG cargoes is shifting in favor of Asia, where liquefied gas is needed for current consumption rather than for replenishing reserves.

Risk Scenario for Autumn

Industry experts do not expect a repeat of the peaks seen in 2022–2023; however, they acknowledge that if the conflict in the Persian Gulf persists, prices could exceed $1000 per thousand cubic meters. An additional risk factor is the anticipated El Niño peak in December, which could alter heating season profiles. For the European industry, energy sector, and fertilizer producers, this emphasizes the necessity for hedging now.

LNG: Record Wave of New Capacities on the Horizon for 2026–2028

Despite current tensions, the medium-term picture for the liquefied natural gas market looks fundamentally different. According to the IEA, from 2026 to 2028, the global LNG market is expecting the largest historical growth in capacity. Projects in the US, Qatar, Canada, and several other jurisdictions are nearing completion. Investments in LNG infrastructure are on a steady upward trajectory — unlike investments in oil extraction, which have recorded their first annual decline since 2020 of about 6%, mainly due to a reduction in spending in the American shale industry.

A practical takeaway for market participants: the current price surge is mainly logistical and geopolitical in nature. Structurally, the gas market is moving toward an oversupply in the latter half of the decade, creating an asymmetry between spot prices and long-term contract expectations.

Gas Demand: IEA Predicts a Decline in 2026

The International Energy Agency has revised its forecast for global natural gas demand downward. The regional picture has been mixed:

• Asia: demand is expected to decrease by approximately 0.5%. Expensive LNG is prompting a back-switch to coal generation and is weakening activity in energy-intensive industries.
• Middle East: the sharpest decline is projected at around 4% due to the direct impact of conflict on infrastructure and production.
• Eurasia: growth is around 3%.
• Central and South America: growth of about 3% against the backdrop of reduced hydroelectric generation.

The price elasticity of gas demand has proven to be higher than anticipated: at high prices, consumers in developing economies are rapidly returning to coal. This is a key factor limiting the ceiling on gas prices even amid geopolitical stress.

Russian Fuel Market: Emerging from Acute Phase of Fuel Crisis

The internal fuel market in Russia is going through one of its most challenging periods in recent years due to a reduction in primary processing: in June–July, the operations of several major plants, including the Omsk and Saratov refineries and the NORSI complex, have been halted or restricted amid infrastructure damage and unscheduled shutdowns.

The consequences for the fuel market are:

1. Wholesale exchange prices for diesel fuel at SPbMTSB have exceeded historical highs, with trading volumes for AI-95 dropping by up to 43% during certain periods.
2. A number of regions have implemented restrictions on fuel sales, including an "even-odd" scheme; in resort areas of Krasnodar Krai, Crimea, and the Caucasus, seasonal demand has exacerbated imbalances.
3. Retail prices at major fuel station networks remained within inflation limits, while independent stations saw prices rise significantly above that.

Regulator Measures and Early Signs of Stabilization

• Export Ban: the export of gasoline and diesel fuel is prohibited until July 31, with discussions ongoing about extending this ban.
• Exchange Sale Norm: mandatory exchange sale proportion has been reduced from 15% to 10% to increase the flexibility of direct deliveries.
• Import Substitution: Belarus redirected gasoline volumes to the Russian market — from June 1 to June 25, imports reached a historic maximum of 141,000 tons. Kazakhstan is also considered a potential supplier, processing 15–17 million tons of oil annually.
• Resumption of Exchange Sales: part of the refineries has returned to fuel sales on the exchange, volumes of wholesale trading are increasing, unsatisfied demand is decreasing, and the situation at some fuel stations is stabilizing.

The priority of ensuring the domestic market remains at the level of the relevant Deputy Prime Minister. Official estimates suggest normalization by August as repairs at refineries conclude. Industry experts are more cautious and allow for a shift in timelines, noting that the supply restriction is temporary: a price reduction is possible in two to three months after resolving processing issues.

Electricity and RES: Record Investments Amid Rising Flexibility Demands

The global electricity sector is undergoing a structural transformation. Total global energy investments have exceeded $3.3 trillion, with spending on clean technologies — renewable energy sources, networks, storage, and nuclear generation — doubling the investments in fossil fuels, which account for about $1.1 trillion. Solar photovoltaic energy is attracting more capital than any other technological direction in the energy sector. Investments in the energy transition reached $2.3 trillion in 2025.

Key trends in the electricity sector include:

• RES and nuclear outpace coal in the global generation energy balance — a tipping point reflected in IEA forecasts.
• Data Centres as a New Demand Driver: in North America, electricity consumption growth of around 2% is primarily driven by computational infrastructure and AI loads.
• Asia Sets the Pace: India is showing an electricity demand growth of around 6.6% — the largest contribution to global dynamics.
• Nuclear Renaissance: over a hundred reactors in France and the USA are providing record levels of nuclear generation, while Japan is systematically bringing back online previously shut down blocks.
• Flexibility Deficit: the increasing share of variable generation requires proactive investments in energy storage systems and modernization of grids — without these, the reliability of energy supply diminishes.

Coal: Fuel of Last Resort Returns to Play

Despite the long-term trend of decarbonization, the coal market has received short-term support from the gas crisis. The mechanism is straightforward: expensive LNG in Asia makes coal generation economically preferable, as evidenced by declining regional gas demand. Developing economies in the Asia-Pacific region continue to rely on coal as a tool for ensuring baseload and energy security.

For investors, this creates a characteristic asymmetry: coal assets exhibit strong cash flows during periods of energy stress but remain under structural pressure from climate regulation and capital costs. Major exporters — Indonesia, Australia, Russia, and South Africa — retain the ability to ramp up supplies quickly, which limits the potential for a price rally in the coal market.

Raw Material Sector and Logistics: Insurance Premiums as a Hidden Tax

The transformation of transport and logistics costs deserves separate attention from market participants. The military threat in the Strait of Hormuz is communicated to the market through several channels:

1. Freight Rates for VLCC tankers are rising as the number of shipowners willing to operate in high-risk zones diminishes.
2. Insurance Premiums for war risks are being revised upward, effectively creating an additional tax on each barrel of Middle Eastern oil.
3. Route Extensions and reorientation of flows increase fleet turnover time, reducing the effective supply of tonnage.
4. Revaluation of Delivery Premiums in favor of producers outside the Persian Gulf — West Africa, Latin America, and the North Sea.

Governments of several countries are already preparing for potential disruptions in energy resource supplies by reviewing strategic reserve parameters. Concurrently, regional intermediaries are attempting to negotiate a ten-day ceasefire between Washington and Tehran, which could lay the groundwork for new negotiations. Tehran is considering the offer, but no final agreement has been reached yet.

Forecast and Conclusions for Energy Sector Participants

The current configuration of the global energy market is characterized by the overlay of a short-term geopolitical shock on the medium-term trend towards oversupply. Practical guidelines include:

• Oil: the range of $85–95 for Brent will remain until clarity emerges concerning shipping conditions in the Strait of Hormuz. A ceasefire agreement could swiftly eliminate a $10–15 premium.
• Gas: TTF prices in the range of €55–65 per MWh with the risk of rising further if an adverse scenario unfolds in Autumn. A key indicator for monitoring is the pace of daily injections into European underground storage facilities.
• Oil Products in Russia: gradual restoration of balance as repairs at refineries conclude; the extension of the export ban post-July 31 remains the main regulatory risk.
• Electricity: investment focus is shifting from generation to networks, storage, and flexibility sources — where the deficit is forming.
• Coal: tactical support from expensive gas while maintaining long-term structural pressure.

For investors, fuel, and oil companies, the key skill in the current environment becomes volatility management rather than price direction forecasting: revising hedging strategies, stress-testing logistics chains, and reevaluating counterparty risks in high-military-hazard zones. The energy market has entered a phase where speed of response is more important than price prediction accuracy.