Global Oil, Gas, and Energy Industry News for Wednesday, December 17, 2025: Oil, Gas, Electricity, Renewable Energy, Coal, Refineries, Key Events and Trends in the Global Energy Sector for Investors and Market Participants.
Current events in the fuel and energy complex (FEC) on December 17, 2025, attract the attention of investors, market participants, and major fuel companies due to their contradictions. The fall in oil prices to multi-year lows coincides with a sharp rise in gas prices in the United States, creating a mixed picture for global energy markets. The global oil market remains under pressure from oversupply and slowed demand, with Brent prices hovering around $60 per barrel (the lowest levels in four years), reflecting a fragile balance of factors. Meanwhile, the gas sector is demonstrating divergent trends: prices in Europe remain moderate due to high inventories, while wholesale gas in America sets records, provoking a local energy crisis. Simultaneously, amidst ongoing sanctions against Russia, its oil and gas revenues are plummeting, prompting authorities to continue measures supporting the domestic fuel market. Meanwhile, the global energy transition is gaining momentum—renewable energy is reaching record levels in many countries, although for the reliability of energy systems, states are not yet abandoning traditional resources. Below is a detailed overview of key news and trends across the oil, gas, electricity, and raw materials sectors as of this date.
Oil Market: Oversupply and Moderate Demand Pressuring Prices
Global oil prices continued to decline under the influence of fundamental factors. The North Sea Brent is trading around $60 per barrel, and the American WTI is near $56. Current levels are approximately 20% lower than a year ago, reflecting an ongoing market correction following price peaks from previous years. Several factors are influencing price dynamics:
- OPEC+ Production Increase: The oil alliance is overall increasing supply in the market despite falling prices. Key participants of the agreement have partially restored production volumes: in December 2025, the total quota was raised by approximately 137,000 barrels per day (in accordance with previously announced plans). Although OPEC+ is taking a pause in the first quarter of 2026 due to seasonal demand drops, the current level of production remains high.
- Rise in Non-OPEC Supply: Apart from OPEC countries, other producers have also increased output. U.S. oil production has reached record levels (around 13 million barrels/day), and significant export growth is observed from Latin America and Africa. Collectively, this adds additional oil to the market and strengthens the trend of offering surplus.
- Slowing Demand Growth: The pace of global oil consumption increase has declined. The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects demand growth in 2025 to be less than 1 million barrels/day (down from ~2.5 million in 2023), while OPEC estimates around +1.3 million b/d. Reasons include weakening economic activity in several countries, increased energy efficiency, and relatively high prices from previous years stimulating energy conservation. An additional factor is moderate industrial growth in China, which limits the appetite of the second-largest oil consumer.
- Geopolitics and Expectations: The market continues to be influenced by uncertainties in international relations. On one hand, the ongoing sanctions against Russia and relative instability in the Middle East could support prices; however, the overall surplus supply negates this effect. On the other hand, sporadic signals of potential dialogue (for example, discussions in the U.S. about plans to reintegrate Russia into the global economy following conflict resolution) somewhat reduce the geopolitical "premium" in oil prices. As a result, prices fluctuate within a narrow range without sharp spikes, gaining no impetus for a new rally or crash.
The combined impact of these factors forms an excess of supply over demand, keeping the oil market in a state of surplus. Exchange prices remain significantly lower than previous years. Several analysts believe that if current trends persist, the average price of Brent could drop to around $50 per barrel in 2026.
Gas Market: European Stability and Price Surge in the U.S.
The gas market exhibits divergent trends. Europe and Asia enter the winter season with relative confidence, while North America experiences unprecedented gas price hikes. The situation in different regions can be summarized as follows:
- Europe: EU countries have entered the winter season with high gas inventories. Underground storage was approximately 75% filled at the beginning of December (compared to about 85% a year ago). This buffer and stable LNG influx keep exchange prices low: TTF hub prices have fallen below €30/MWh (≈$320 per 1,000 cubic meters). This situation is favorable for European industry and power generation on the verge of peak winter demand.
- U.S.A: Conversely, the American gas market is experiencing a price shock. Wholesale prices at the Henry Hub surpassed $5.3 per million BTU (≈$180 per thousand cubic meters)—over 70% higher than a year ago. This occurred due to record LNG exports: significant volumes of American LNG are going abroad, causing shortages in the domestic market and increasing tariffs for power plants and households. Underinvestment in gas infrastructure has exacerbated the issue between internal and external markets. As a result, several energy companies have been forced to increase the usage of coal to contain costs—expensive gas temporarily raised the share of coal generation in the U.S.
- Asia: On key Asian markets, gas prices remain relatively stable. Importers in the region are secured with long-term contracts, and a mild start to winter has not created any buying frenzy. In China and India, gas consumption growth is moderate due to restrained economic growth, thus competition with Europe for LNG cargoes remains mild. However, analysts warn that during a sharp cold snap or rapid acceleration of the Chinese economy, the balance could change: increased demand in Asia could once again raise global gas prices and intensify the battle for LNG between the East and the West.
Thus, the global gas market shows a dual picture. Europe currently enjoys relatively low prices and comfortable inventories, while expensive gas in North America has created local challenges for energy supply. Market participants are closely monitoring weather and economic factors that could alter this balance in the upcoming months.
International Politics: Sanction Pressure and Cautious Dialogue Signals
The geopolitical sphere continues to witness confrontation concerning Russia's energy resources. In late October, the European Union approved its 19th sanctions package, further tightening restrictions. Among other measures, any financial and logistical services related to the purchase, transportation, or insurance of Russian oil for key Russian oil and gas companies were completely banned—closing the last loopholes for oil export to Europe. The introduction of the 20th sanctions package by the EU is expected at the beginning of 2026, which is forecasted to impact new sectors (including nuclear, steel, oil refining, and fertilizers), complicating trade operations with Russia even further.
Simultaneously, cautious signals of a potential compromise have recently emerged on the diplomatic horizon. According to insiders, the U.S. in recent weeks has conveyed several proposals to European allies regarding the gradual reintegration of Russia into the global economy—certainly contingent upon achieving peace and resolving the crisis. While these ideas are still unofficial and no sanctions relief has been introduced, the mere fact of such discussions indicates a search for pathways to dialogue in the long term. Nevertheless, the current sanctions regime remains strict, and energy resources from Russia continue to be sold at significant discounts to a limited circle of purchasing countries. Markets are closely monitoring developments: the emergence of genuine peace initiatives could improve investor sentiment and soften the sanctions rhetoric, while a lack of progress threatens new restrictions on the Russian energy complex.
Asia: India and China Between Imports and Domestic Production
- India: Confronted with Western sanctions, New Delhi clearly indicates that it cannot sharply cut imports of Russian oil and gas, as they are essential for national energy security. Indian consumers have secured favorable conditions: Russian suppliers offer Urals oil at significant discounts (estimated at no less than $5 to Brent price) to maintain market share in India. As a result, India continues to purchase significant amounts of Russian oil at preferential prices and is even increasing imports of oil products from Russia to meet growing demand. Concurrently, the government is taking steps to reduce dependency on imports in the future. In August 2025, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced the launch of a national program for exploring deepwater oil and gas fields. As part of this program, the state company ONGC has begun drilling ultra-deep wells (up to 5 km) in the Andaman Sea, and the early results appear promising. This "deepwater mission" aims to uncover new hydrocarbon reserves and bring India closer to its energy independence goals.
- China: Asia's largest economy is also increasing resource purchases while boosting domestic production. Chinese importers remain leading buyers of Russian oil (Beijing has not joined the sanctions and is taking advantage of the opportunity to buy raw materials at reduced prices). Analysts estimate that China’s total oil imports will increase by about 3% in 2025 compared to last year, while gas imports are expected to decrease by approximately 6% due to increased domestic production and moderate demand. Concurrently, Beijing is investing heavily in developing its national oil and gas production: in 2025, oil production in China grew by about 1.7%, and gas production by more than 6%. The increase in domestic output helps partially satisfy economic needs, but does not eliminate the dependency on imports. Given the massive scale of consumption, China’s reliance on external supplies remains high; it is expected that in the coming years, the country will import no less than 70% of its oil and around 40% of its gas. Thus, the two largest Asian consumers—India and China—will continue to play a critical role in global raw material markets, combining strategies for ensuring imports with the development of their resource bases.
Energy Transition: Renewable Energy Records and the Role of Traditional Generation
The global shift to clean energy is accelerating rapidly. Many countries are recording record electricity generation from renewable sources (RES). In Europe, the total generation from solar and wind power plants exceeded electricity production from coal and gas-fired plants for the first time by the end of 2024. This trend continued into 2025: due to the commissioning of new capacities, the share of "green" electricity in the EU is steadily growing, while the share of coal in the energy balance is once again declining (after a temporary rise during the 2022–2023 crisis). In the U.S., renewable energy has also reached historic highs—over 30% of total generation comes from RES, and for the first time in 2025, the total volume of electricity generated by wind and solar surpassed that generated by coal-fired plants. China, the leader in installed "green" capacity, is launching dozens of gigawatts of new solar panels and wind generators each year, continuously breaking its own generation records. Companies and investors worldwide are deploying massive resources into developing clean energy: according to the IEA, total investments in the global energy sector exceeded $3 trillion in 2025, with more than half of these funds directed to RES projects, grid modernization, and energy storage systems. In line with this trend, the European Union has set a new goal—to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 90% from 1990 levels by 2040, which sets a very high pace for phasing out fossil fuels in favor of low-carbon technologies.
However, energy systems still rely on traditional generation for stability. The rising share of solar and wind presents challenges for grid balancing during hours when RES is unavailable (at night or during calm periods). To cover peak demand and reserve capacity, gas and even coal-fired power plants are being reinstated in some cases. For instance, in certain European countries last winter, there was a need to temporarily increase production at coal-fired power stations during windless cold weather—despite the environmental costs. Similarly, in the autumn of 2025, the expensive gas in the U.S. compelled energy producers to temporarily boost coal generation. To enhance the reliability of energy supply, governments in many countries invest in developing energy storage systems (industrial batteries, pumped storage facilities) and smart grids capable of flexibly managing load. Experts predict that by 2026–2027, renewable sources will surpass coal to become the leading power generation method globally. However, in the coming few years, the need for support from conventional power plants as a backup for outages persists. In other words, the global energy transition reaches new heights but requires a delicate balance between "green" technologies and traditional resources.
Coal: A Stable Market Amid Sustained High Demand
The rapid development of renewable energy has not diminished the essential role of the coal industry. The global coal market remains a massive and vital segment of the energy balance. Demand for coal remains consistently high, especially in the Asia-Pacific region, where economic growth and electricity needs support intensive consumption of this fuel. China, the world's largest consumer and producer of coal, is burning coal at nearly record rates in 2025. Chinese mines extract more than 4 billion tonnes of coal annually, meeting the bulk of domestic needs; however, this volume is barely sufficient during peak load periods (for example, during summer heat when air-conditioning use surges). India, with significant coal reserves, is also increasing its coal consumption: over 70% of electricity in the country is still generated from coal-fired plants, and absolute coal consumption is rising along with the economy. In other developing Asian countries (Indonesia, Vietnam, Bangladesh, etc.), new coal-fired power plants continue to be built to meet the growing demands of the population and industry.
Supply in the global market has adapted to this sustained demand. Major exporters—Indonesia, Australia, Russia, and South Africa—have significantly increased extraction and shipments of thermal coal to the external market in recent years. This has helped keep prices relatively stable. Following price spikes in 2022, thermal coal prices have returned to a familiar range and have fluctuated in recent months without sharp changes. The balance of supply and demand appears to be balanced: consumers continue to receive fuel, and producers enjoy stable sales at favorable prices. Although many countries have announced plans to gradually reduce coal usage for climate goals, in the short term, this resource remains indispensable for the energy supply of billions of people. Experts estimate that in the next 5–10 years, coal generation—especially in Asia—will maintain a significant role, despite global decarbonization efforts. Thus, the coal sector is currently experiencing a period of relative equilibrium: demand remains consistently high, prices are moderate, and the industry continues to be one of the pillars of the world energy system.
Russian Fuel Market: Measures to Stabilize Fuel Prices
In the domestic fuel segment in Russia, emergency measures were taken in the last quarter to normalize the price situation. As early as August, wholesale exchange prices for gasoline in the country hit new record highs, exceeding levels from 2023. The causes were spikes in summer demand (the tourist season and the harvest campaign) and limited fuel supply amid unplanned refinery repairs and logistical disruptions. The government was forced to tighten market regulation, promptly implementing a package of measures to cool prices:
- Export Ban on Fuel: A complete ban on the export of petrol and diesel fuel was introduced in September and extended until the end of 2025. This measure applied to all producers (including the largest oil companies) and aims to direct additional volumes to the domestic market.
- Distribution Control: Authorities have intensified monitoring of fuel shipments within the country. Refineries were instructed to prioritize meeting the needs of the domestic market and prevent exchanges between suppliers on the stock market. Concurrently, work is underway to develop direct contracts between refineries and fuel companies (retail fuel station networks) to eliminate intermediaries from the sales chain and prevent speculative price increases.
- Sector Subsidies: Incentive payments for fuel producers have been maintained. The budget compensates oil producers for some of the lost revenues from domestic market supplies (through a damping mechanism), motivating them to direct sufficient volumes of petroleum products to retail stations despite lower profitability compared to exports.
The combination of these measures is already yielding results—a fuel crisis was largely contained in the autumn. Despite record exchange prices for gasoline, retail prices at filling stations have increased much more slowly (about 5% since the beginning of the year, roughly corresponding to overall inflation). A shortage at filling stations was avoided; the network of gas stations is adequately supplied with resources. The government stands ready to continue extending export restrictions if necessary (considering extending the ban on gasoline and diesel exports until February 2026) and promptly deploy fuel reserves to stabilize the market. The situation is being monitored at the highest levels—the relevant ministries and the Deputy Prime Minister are supervising the issue, assuring that all efforts will be made to maintain a stable fuel supply for the domestic market and keep prices for consumers within acceptable limits.
