Global Oil, Gas, and Energy News for Saturday, January 10, 2026. Oil, Gas, Electricity, Renewable Energy, Coal, Petroleum Products, and Refineries: Key Events in the Global Fuel and Energy Sector for Investors and Market Participants.
As we approach 2026, the global energy resource market demonstrates a balance: an oversupply restrains price growth for oil and gas, while moderate demand prevents sharp spikes. Brent prices stabilized around $60–63 per barrel, while American WTI hovered around $55–58 (as of early January). The gas market is experiencing a relatively calm period: record volumes of LNG supply and a mild winter in Europe and Asia keep gas prices at low levels (approximately €28–30/MWh in Europe, with China at five-year lows). Investors are also noting an acceleration in the transition to "green" energy—renewable sources are breaking electricity production records, but traditional coal and gas stations still ensure the balance of energy systems.
Oil Market: Oversupply Keeps Prices in Check
The oil market continues to face pressure from fundamental factors: global supply remains high, while demand growth has slowed. In 2025, oil prices fell nearly a fifth from the previous year's values (the most significant annual decline since 2020), reflecting increased production and weak global economic growth. In December 2025, OPEC+ suspended its planned production increase for early 2026 due to "market oversaturation." At the January meeting, leading exporters agreed to maintain production freezes at 4Q levels to prevent further price drops. Quotas for January-March remain unchanged: Russia—9.574 million barrels/day, Saudi Arabia—10.103 million barrels/day, Iraq—4.273 million barrels/day, etc. (excluding compensatory obligations).
- Factors pressuring oil: maintaining the OPEC+ production freeze in Q1; excessive oil inventories in the market (inventory levels remain high).
- U.S. Policy: The U.S. government began selling Venezuelan oil and petroleum products (up to 30–50 million barrels) from strategic reserves. Such activity may increase supply, although prices are yet to react sharply.
- Oil Prices: Brent futures have risen to ~$62–63 per barrel (the lows from December 8), partially due to geopolitical risks. However, analysts predict that if current trends persist, prices will remain moderate, and Brent may still drop to $50–55 by mid-year.
- Russian Urals oil is trading at a record high discount to Brent—around $20–25 (double the annual figure). This reflects sanctions pressure and oversupply in the markets. Considering the ruble's strengthening to ~80 against the dollar, the ruble price of Urals has fallen to approximately 3000 rubles/barrel (twice below last year's level).
Gas Market: Record Influx of LNG and Comfortable Stocks
The gas market enjoys favorable pricing conditions: storage levels in European gas storage facilities exceed two-thirds of their maximum, providing a buffer as winter reaches its midpoint. February TTF futures remain at €28–30/MWh, considerably lower than the spring peaks of 2022. During 2025, LNG shipments to Europe reached a record 100 million tons, compensating for the decline in pipeline volumes from Russia. Increased competition in the LNG market is expected in 2026: the U.S. is increasing gas exports, directing up to 70% of shipments to Europe, with new LNG infrastructure coming online.
- Supply and demand balance: An oversupply of LNG and a mild winter are leading to declining prices. Analysts predict that average gas prices in Europe could fall by 15–20% (to approximately $350–370 per 1000 m³), while prices in Asia could drop by 15% (to ~$11 per million BTU) due to oversupply formation and lack of substantial demand growth.
- U.S. LNG Exports: In 2025, U.S. LNG shipments set records—over 124 billion cubic meters from January to October (an increase of +23% compared to 2024). The majority of these shipments were sent to Europe (around 70% of exports), intensifying regional market competition.
- Prices in Asia: Cold weather is receding, and wholesale LNG prices in China have dropped to five-year lows due to the mild winter and ample stocks. In fact, storage facilities are over 70% full, forcing sellers to offload excess fuel at reduced prices.
Geopolitics: Venezuela, Sanctions, and Internal Consolidation in OPEC+
Political events significantly impact the fuel and energy sector. Firstly, an unprecedented crisis has begun in Venezuela: On January 3, the U.S. detained President Maduro and effectively took control of much of the country's oil sector. Trump announced plans to involve American oil companies in upgrading Venezuela's infrastructure and increasing oil production. Despite possessing the world's largest oil reserves, current production volumes are low, and recovery will take years. The market reaction so far has been calm: investors understand that the shift to increased supply will take time.
Secondly, there are tensions within OPEC+: Saudi Arabia and the UAE are in conflict (over the situation in Yemen), marking the most serious rift within the alliance in years. However, at the January meeting, the "group of eight" countries (Russia, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kazakhstan, Iraq, Algeria, Oman, Kuwait) demonstrated unity—all unanimously confirmed the production freeze and declined to increase February quotas. This reaffirms the commitment of key players to avoid sharp supply surges and maintain market stability.
New sanctions actions from the West are heightening uncertainty. At the end of 2025, the U.S. administration expanded sectoral sanctions against major Russian oil companies "Rosneft" and "Lukoil," further limiting export opportunities for raw materials and technologies. The European Union is also discussing tightening environmental regulations (e.g., establishing a carbon customs mechanism), which indirectly affects the global fuel sector. Overall, geopolitical risks are intensifying competition for markets and accelerating supply chain diversification.
Asia: India and China - Balancing Imports and Increasing Production
- India: Traditionally one of the largest buyers of cheap oil, Russian oil at discounts (~$5 lower than Brent) continues to flow into the Indian market, helping to stabilize domestic fuel prices. However, under pressure from the U.S. (import tariffs), the largest importer, Reliance Industries, announced the cessation of Russian supplies in January. This is expected to reduce the import of Russian oil to India below 1 million barrels/day, the lowest level in years. Meanwhile, India is striving to increase its own production and refining capacity and is actively developing renewable energy (solar and wind) to diversify its energy balance and lower import dependence.
- China: In 2025, China introduced record volumes of oil and gas to the domestic market, comparable to the previous year. Beijing actively sourced resources from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela at favorable prices to replenish strategic reserves. Domestic oil and gas production increased only slightly (around 1–2%), with China still covering approximately 70% of its demand through imports. Beijing is investing heavily in exploring new fields and developing technologies while rapidly expanding the renewable energy sector (solar panels, wind turbines, batteries). Despite efforts to enhance domestic production, China will remain one of the world's largest energy importers in the coming years.
Energy Transition and Renewables: Record Growth and the Role of Traditional Sources
- New Renewable Energy Records: The global transition to clean energy is gaining momentum. In 2025, many countries achieved historical highs in the generation of solar and wind power plants. In Europe, total generation from solar and wind energy sources has for the first time exceeded the output from coal-fired power plants, reflecting an acceleration in the shift away from coal in favor of "green" technologies.
- Investment in Green Energy: Major global energy companies (such as Shell, BP, Total, and even Rosneft with Novatek) are announcing large-scale "green" field projects—from offshore wind farms to large solar farms and energy storage systems. The desire to meet climate goals and reduce the carbon footprint is driving billions in investments into clean energy.
- Maintaining Backup Capacities: As the share of renewable energy increases, the burden on energy systems rises since solar and wind stations produce intermittent energy. Therefore, countries are maintaining reserves of traditional energy sources: gas, coal, and nuclear plants continue to provide base load and balance the grid during peak consumption periods.
- Climate Goals: Many countries are tightening environmental policies and decarbonization plans. Governments are implementing quotas, carbon taxes, and promoting green technologies (hydrogen, electric transport, smart grids). This is forming a long-term trend towards gradually reducing the share of fossil fuels in the global energy balance.
Oil Products Market and Domestic Fuel Market in Russia
- Export Restrictions: The Russian government has extended the ban on the export of gasoline, diesel, shipping fuel, and other oil products until the end of February 2026. This is to ensure sufficient domestic supply following the deficit of 2025. Restrictions are being lifted only for refiners, who can export products if they have available capacity.
- Market Assurance: Authorities cite several risks: attacks by Ukrainian drones on Russian refineries and oil depots, as well as a sharp rise in wholesale fuel prices in the summer of 2025. The situation is now calmer, as some refineries have already restored normal operating volumes, and the seasonal decline in consumption (winter) is easing market pressure.
- Fuel Imports from CIS: Belarus has increased fuel supplies to Russia, which helps replenish domestic reserves and build stockpiles. In the case of excessive supply, the Ministry of Energy is ready to cut imports from Belarus to avoid overproduction. Thus, the risk of total shortages in the domestic market is decreasing.
- Gasoline Prices in Russia: Thanks to falling wholesale prices and resuming production, experts expect price stability at gas stations in January 2026. After autumn spikes, Russian authorities removed some regulatory measures (excise tax exemptions), resulting in a moderate decrease in wholesale prices, which should prevent retail prices from rising sharply. Overall, the beginning of 2026 is traditionally considered calm for the fuel market.
