Current News in the Oil and Gas and Energy Sector as of November 23, 2025: Oil and Gas Market Dynamics, Energy Sector Situation, Renewable Energy Sources, Coal, Geopolitics, Supply and Demand, Domestic Fuel Market
The latest developments in the oil, gas, and energy sectors as of November 23, 2025, attract the attention of investors and market participants due to their contradictions. Unexpected diplomatic initiatives instill cautious optimism regarding the easing of geopolitical tensions, reflected in a decrease in the "risk premium" in the oil market.
Global oil prices continue to feel the pressure from an excess of supply and weakened demand—Brent quotes have fallen to around $62 per barrel (WTI around $58), reflecting the fragile balance of factors. The European gas market appears relatively balanced: gas storage levels in the EU countries remain high (over 80% of capacity), providing a buffer ahead of the winter period and keeping prices at relatively low levels.
Concurrently, the global energy transition is gaining momentum—many countries are recording new records in electricity generation from renewable sources, although traditional resources are still needed for the reliability of energy systems. In Russia, following a recent sharp rise in fuel prices, government measures have begun to yield results, and the domestic market situation is stabilizing. Below is a detailed review of key news and trends in the oil, gas, electricity, and commodity segments as of this date.
Oil Market: Geopolitical De-escalation and Oversupply Pressure Prices
Global oil quotes remain at relatively low levels influenced by fundamental factors. Brent is trading at around $62–63 per barrel, WTI at about $58, which is approximately 15% lower than a year ago. Price dynamics are affected by several key factors:
- OPEC+ Production Increase: The oil alliance continues to gradually increase supply. In December 2025, the cumulative production quota of deal participants will increase by about 137,000 barrels per day. Earlier, from the summer, monthly increments averaged 0.5–0.6 million barrels per day, which led to a return of global oil and petroleum product inventories to pre-pandemic levels. Although further quota increases for 2026 are paused due to concerns over oversupply, the current supply growth is already exerting pressure on prices.
- Demand Slowdown: The growth rate of global oil consumption has substantially decreased. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates demand growth in 2025 at less than 0.8 million barrels per day (compared to 2.5 million in 2023). Even OPEC's forecast has become more cautious, now around +1.2–1.3 million barrels per day. A slowdown in the global economy and the effects of high prices in previous years limit consumption, compounded by slowing industrial growth in China, which curbs appetite from the world's second-largest oil consumer.
- Geopolitical Signals: Reports of a potential peace plan for Ukraine from the USA have reduced some geopolitical uncertainty, removing the risk premium from prices. However, the absence of real agreements and ongoing sanctions pressure do not allow the market to fully calm down. Traders react reflexively to news: until peace initiatives materialize, the influence remains short-term.
- Shale Production Restrictions: In the USA, low prices have begun to limit the activity of shale producers. The number of drilling rigs in American oil basins is decreasing as quotes dipped to ~$60. This signals greater caution among companies and threatens to slow supply growth from the USA if such prices persist for an extended period.
The combined impact of these factors creates a situation close to surplus: global supply currently slightly exceeds demand. Oil prices confidently remain below last year's levels. Some analysts believe that if current trends continue, the average price of Brent may drop to around $50 per barrel in 2026. Meanwhile, the market remains in a relatively narrow range, lacking momentum for significant growth or collapse.
Gas Market: Europe Enters Winter Stocked Up, Prices Remain Moderate
In the gas market, the focus is on Europe's preparations for the heating season. EU countries actively filled their underground gas storage facilities (UGS) throughout the summer and fall. By mid-November, European storage facilities were approximately 82% full—slightly below the target benchmark (90% by November 1)—but still at a very comfortable level. This provides a substantial gas reserve in case of a cold winter. Exchange prices for gas are maintained at low levels: December futures at the TTF hub are trading around €25–28/MWh (about $320–360 per thousand cubic meters), marking a yearly low. Such moderate prices indicate a balance between supply and demand in the European market.
A significant role is played by high imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Thanks to active LNG supplies (including from the USA and Qatar), Europeans managed to offset the decline in pipeline deliveries from Russia and fill UGS ahead of schedule. In the autumn months, monthly LNG imports into the EU consistently exceeded 10 billion cubic meters. Another factor is the relatively mild weather at the beginning of winter, which curbs consumption and allows for slower gas withdrawals from storage than usual. A potential risk ahead is the possible increase in competition for LNG from Asia if severe frosts hit the APT countries, raising gas demand. However, for the time being, the balance in the European gas market appears stable, and prices remain relatively low. This situation is favorable for Europe's industry and energy sector at the onset of the winter season.
International Politics: Peace Initiatives on Ukraine and New US Sanctions
In the second half of November, encouraging signals emerged in the geopolitical arena. Reports suggest that the US side has prepared a conflict resolution plan for Ukraine, which, among other things, includes the lifting of some sanctions imposed against Russia. According to media reports, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky received urgent signals from Washington to accept the proposed agreement, developed with Moscow's participation, in the near term. The prospect of peace negotiations instills cautious optimism in the markets: de-escalation of the conflict could eventually lift restrictions on Russian energy exports and improve the business climate.
At the same time, no real changes in the sanctions regime have occurred; moreover, the West is increasing pressure. New US sanctions targeting the Russian oil and gas sector, effective from November 21, have gone into effect. The largest companies, "Rosneft" and "LUKOIL," are included under the sanctions: global counterparties have been ordered to cease all cooperation with them by this date. Earlier, the US administration signaled its readiness to impose further measures if it does not see progress in the political track, potentially introducing stiff tariffs against countries continuing to actively purchase Russian oil.
Thus, the lack of concrete breakthroughs on the diplomatic front means that sanctions pressure will remain fully in place. However, the very fact that dialogue continues offers a chance that the most severe actions from the West may be postponed for now. In the upcoming weeks, market attention will be focused on the development of contacts between world leaders: positive shifts could improve investor sentiment and soften the sanctions rhetoric, while a failure in negotiations threatens a new escalation of restrictions. The outcomes of current peace initiatives will have a long-term impact on energy cooperation and the rules of the game in the oil and gas market.
Asia: India Reduces Import of Russian Oil while China Increases Purchases
- India: Facing pressure from Western sanctions policies, New Delhi is compelled to adjust its energy strategy. Earlier, Indian authorities clearly indicated that a sharp reduction in imports of Russian oil and gas was unacceptable due to the critical role these supplies play in ensuring energy security. However, under intensified pressure from the USA, Indian refiners have begun to cut back on purchases. The largest private oil company, Reliance Industries, entirely ceased importing Russian oil to its complex in Jamnagar from November 20. To retain the Indian market, Russian suppliers were compelled to offer additional discounts: December Urals oil batches are being sold at a discount of about $5–6 compared to Brent (whereas in summer, the discount was around $2). As a result, India continues to purchase significant volumes of Russian oil on preferential terms, although total imports will decrease in the coming months. At the same time, the country's leadership is taking steps to reduce dependency on imports in the long term. Back in August, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced the launch of a national program for the exploration of deep-water oil and gas fields. Under this initiative, the state-owned company ONGC has begun drilling ultra-deep wells (up to 5 km) in the Andaman Sea; initial results are deemed encouraging. This "deep-water mission" aims to discover new hydrocarbon reserves and move India closer to its goal of gradually achieving energy independence.
- China: The largest Asian economy is also forced to adapt its energy import structure while simultaneously increasing domestic production. Chinese importers remain leading buyers of Russian oil and gas—Beijing has not joined Western sanctions and has taken advantage of the situation to import raw materials at favorable prices. However, the latest sanctions moves by the USA and EU have led to adjustments: Chinese state traders have temporarily suspended new purchases of Russian oil to avoid secondary sanctions. The resulting gap has been partially filled by independent refiners. The newest oil refinery Yulong in Shandong province sharply ramped up purchases, reaching a record import volume in November 2025 of around 15 large tanker shipments (up to 400,000 barrels per day), predominantly of Russian oil (ESPO, Urals, Sokol). Yulong capitalized on the fact that several suppliers canceled shipments of Middle Eastern raw materials after sanctions and resold the released volumes. Simultaneously, China is increasing its own oil and gas production: from January to July 2025, national companies extracted 126.6 million tons of oil (+1.3% compared to the previous year) and 152.5 billion cubic meters of gas (+6%). The growth of domestic production helps partially satisfy increased demand but does not eliminate the need for imports. Analysts estimate that in the coming years, China will still depend on external oil supplies by at least 70% and gas by about 40%. Thus, India and China—two largest Asian consumers—continue to play a critical role in global commodity markets, combining import security strategies with the development of their own resource base.
Energy Transition: Renewable Energy Records Amidst the Continued Role of Traditional Energy
The global shift to clean energy is rapidly gaining momentum. Many countries are recording new generation records from renewable energy sources (RES). In the European Union, by the end of 2024, the total generation from solar and wind power plants for the first time surpassed electricity generation from coal and gas power plants. The trend continued in 2025: the commissioning of new capacity allowed further growth in the share of "green" electricity in the EU, while the share of coal in the energy balance began to decline after a temporary increase during the energy crisis of 2022–2023. Renewable energy in the USA also reached historical levels—at the beginning of 2025, more than 30% of the total generation was accounted for by RES, and the total volume of production from wind and solar exceeded electricity generation from coal plants. China, the world leader in installed RES capacity, introduces tens of gigawatts of new solar panels and wind turbines every year, continually upgrading its generation records.
Overall, companies and investors around the world are directing substantial funds toward the development of clean energy. According to the IEA, total investments in the global energy sector are expected to exceed $3 trillion in 2025, with more than half of these funds being invested in RES projects, modernization of electrical grids, and energy storage systems. At the same time, energy systems still rely on traditional generation to ensure stable energy supply. The increasing share of solar and wind creates new challenges for balancing the grid during hours when renewable sources do not generate power (at night or during calm weather). Gas and even coal power plants are still employed to cover peak demands and reserve capacities. For instance, in some regions of Europe last winter, it was necessary to temporarily increase generation at coal-fired power plants during windless periods—despite the environmental costs. Many countries' governments are actively investing in the development of energy storage systems (industrial batteries, pumped storage plants) and "smart" grids capable of flexibly distributing loads. These measures aim to enhance the reliability of energy supply as the share of RES grows. Experts predict that by 2026–2027, renewable sources could surpass coal in terms of total electricity generation globally. However, over the next few years, there remains a need to maintain traditional power plants as a safeguard against outages. Thus, the energy transition is reaching new heights but requires a delicate balance between "green" technologies and traditional resources.
Coal: High Demand Keeps Market Stable
Despite the accelerated development of RES, the global coal market still maintains significant volumes and remains a crucial part of the global energy balance. Demand for coal fuel remains consistently high, especially in the Asia-Pacific region, where economic growth and energy needs drive intensive consumption of this resource. China, the world's largest consumer and producer of coal, came close to record levels of electricity generation from coal this autumn. In October 2025, electricity generation at Chinese thermal power plants (mainly coal-fired) increased by 7% compared to the previous year, reaching a monthly peak for this month in history, reflecting increased energy consumption (the total volume of electricity production in China in October set a 30-year record). At the same time, coal production in China decreased by ~2% due to enhanced safety measures in mines, leading to rising internal prices. By mid-November, the prices of energy coal in China reached a year-long high (around 835 yuan/ton at the key port hub Qinhuangdao), stimulating import growth. Import volumes of coal into China remain elevated—November is expected to see around 28–29 million tons imported by sea, compared to a minimum of ~20 million tons in June of this year. Increased Chinese demand supports global coal prices: prices for Indonesian and Australian thermal coal have risen to multi-month highs (30–40% above summer lows).
Other major importing countries, such as India, are also actively utilizing coal for electricity generation—over 70% of generation in India still comes from coal-fired power plants, and absolute coal consumption is growing alongside the economy. Many developing Southeast Asian nations (Indonesia, Vietnam, Bangladesh, etc.) continue to build new coal power plants to meet the rising demand for electricity from households and industries. Leading coal-exporting countries (Indonesia, Australia, Russia, South Africa) are increasing production and shipments to capitalize on favorable conditions. Overall, after the price surges of 2022, the international coal market has returned to a more stable state. Although many countries have announced plans to reduce coal use for climate goals, in the short term, this type of fuel remains irreplaceable for ensuring reliable energy supply. Analysts note that in the next 5–10 years, coal generation, especially in Asia, will retain a significant role, even despite global decarbonization efforts. Thus, there is currently relative equilibrium in the coal sector: demand remains high, prices moderate, and the industry continues to be one of the fundamental pillars of global energy.
Russian Fuel Market: Price Stabilization Thanks to Government Measures
In the domestic fuel sector of Russia, swift measures are being taken to normalize the price situation. As early as late summer, wholesale prices for gasoline and diesel fuel in the country reached record levels, causing local fuel shortages at several gas stations. The government was compelled to enhance market regulation: starting in September, restrictions on fuel exports were imposed, and at the same time, refineries increased output after completing planned repairs. By mid-October, thanks to these measures, fuel exchange prices began to decline from peak levels.
The downward trend has continued in November. According to the St. Petersburg International Commodity and Raw Materials Exchange, during the week ending November 21, the price of A-92 gasoline dropped by 5.3%, and A-95 by 2.6%. Just during the trading session on Friday, November 21, the price for a ton of A-92 decreased to 60,286 rubles, and A-95 to 71,055 rubles. The wholesale price of summer diesel fuel fell by 3.3% over the week. As noted by Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, the stabilization of the wholesale market will soon reflect in retail prices—as consumer gasoline prices have begun to decrease for the second consecutive week (averaging a decline of 13–15 kopecks per liter). On November 20, the State Duma passed a law aimed at ensuring priority fuel supply for the domestic market. Collectively, the measures undertaken have already produced early results: the rise in prices has shifted to a decline, and the situation is normalizing after the autumn fuel crisis. The authorities hope to maintain control over prices and prevent new fuel price surges in the coming months.
