Oil and Gas Energy News for July 25, 2026: Brent Above $100 per Barrel, TTF Gas at Highest Since January 2023, KTK Shipment Halt, OPEC+ Quotas, Russian Fuel Market, Coal, Electricity, and Renewables. An Overview for Investors and Energy Market Participants
The global fuel and energy sector enters the weekend under maximum tension, a state not seen in the past four years. The escalation of the US-Iran conflict, which has spread from the Strait of Hormuz to the Red Sea, has pushed Brent crude prices above the psychological threshold of $100 per barrel for the first time since May, while European gas at the TTF hub has reached its highest point since January 2023. At the same time, the deliveries of Kazakhstani oil through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium have been suspended, and the Russian domestic oil product market is only just beginning to emerge from an acute phase of scarcity. Below is a detailed overview of key events in the oil and gas, coal, and electricity sectors for investors and market participants.
Key Updates for the Morning of Saturday, July 25, 2026
- Oil: Brent closed Thursday at $100.69 per barrel (+7%), WTI at $92.19 (+6.2%). On Friday, the market corrected by about 5% — Brent traded around $95-96, WTI near $88.
- Monthly Dynamics: From $71.57 per barrel on July 1, Brent gained over 30% — one of the sharpest monthly impulses since 2022.
- Gas: TTF futures rose above €63/MWh — a maximum since January 2023; a growth of over 45% since early July and nearly twice year-on-year.
- Logistics: KTK has suspended shipments in Novorossiysk; Kazakhstan has reduced its production.
- Coal: Newcastle remains around $130 per ton against the backdrop of replacing lost LNG supplies.
- Electricity: The IEA forecasts a 3.6% increase in global electricity demand in 2026.
Oil Market: Geopolitical Risk Premium Returns to Pricing
The oil market has spent the past five weeks reacting to military developments. The breach of the $100 level for Brent occurred following reports of attacks on two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea and announcements of the US's readiness for a large-scale strike on Iran. This became the climax of a rally during which the commodity sector gained over 30% in three weeks.
Factors Driving Prices Up
- Physical reduction of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which traditionally accounts for about one-fifth of global oil trade.
- Threat of blockade on the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait — an alternative route for Saudi exports bypassing Hormuz.
- Halt of Kazakh oil shipments to the Black Sea, removing over 1% of the world’s supply from the market.
- Depleted commercial oil and product inventories in OECD countries following the spring phase of the conflict.
- Increase in freight and insurance costs, which are passed through to refinery prices.
Factors Limiting Growth
- Diplomatic track: Reports of Pakistan trying to facilitate US-Iran negotiations with the support of China instantly removed around 5% of the premium from the market.
- China's interest in de-escalation: Disruptions in the Persian Gulf adversely affect the largest global oil importer.
- Spare capacities within OPEC+ and the continuing recovery of quotas.
The spread of forecasts is record wide. RBC Capital Markets suggests that if tensions escalate further, Brent could surpass the peak of 2022 at $128 per barrel. Conversely, UBS expects a decline to $85 by year-end, emphasizing that the recovery of production in the Middle East is progressing slower than market expectations, which will keep the oil market in deficit.
OPEC+: Quotas are Increasing but Real Barrels are Arriving Slowly
The alliance continues the phased recovery of production. The July quota for the "group of eight" amounted to 30.633 million barrels per day, which corresponds to an increase of over 1 million barrels per day compared to June; the step of monthly easing of restrictions is maintained at 188,000 barrels per day. The coalition's overall policy has been confirmed until December 31, 2026, with a maximum allowable production level set at 39.725 million barrels per day. Concurrently, an assessment of the maximum production capacities of participants is underway — this will form the basis for base quotas for 2027.
The key issue for OPEC+ today is not the paper quotas but the logistics: a significant portion of the spare capacity is located in the Persian Gulf states and is physically dependent on the very Strait of Hormuz, the risks around which are driving prices. The UAE's exit from the alliance on May 1, 2026, has further reduced the managed supply pool.
Gas Market: TTF at Highs, Europe Risks Not Filling Gas Storage
The European gas market has emerged as the second epicenter of the crisis. TTF prices have risen by over 45% since the beginning of July and have exceeded €63/MWh. The reasons are of a structural nature:
- Reduction of Qatari LNG supplies and export restrictions from the Persian Gulf;
- Redirection of American LNG shipments to Asian markets with higher prices;
- Abnormal heat in Europe increasing the demand for electricity for air conditioning and, consequently, gas for power generation;
- Increase in freight and insurance rates on routes through conflict zones.
The largest gas supplier to Europe, Equinor, warned that the region is very likely not to reach the target gas storage filling level of 80% by the start of the heating season. The lag in injection rates compared to the five-year average makes the winter of 2026-2027 the main risk for European industry. An additional dimension of the problem is inflation-related: against the backdrop of the energy shock, the ECB maintained the deposit rate at 2.25% on July 23, yet a significant number of economists expect another hike by year-end.
Caspian Pipeline Consortium: Hit to Kazakhstan's Exports
On July 19, the KTK suspended oil loading at the marine terminal near Novorossiysk following drone attacks on two tankers. From July 21, Kazakhstan halted crude pumping through the consortium system: shipowners are refusing to send vessels to the terminal. KTK accounts for about 80-90% of Kazakhstan’s oil exports and over 1% of global oil supply; in 2025, about 63 million tons of crude passed through the system.
On July 23, the Ministry of Energy of Kazakhstan confirmed the forced reduction in daily production to prevent tank farms from overflowing. Some volumes are redirected through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline; however, its capacity cannot fully compensate for the lost exports. For European refineries that rely on CPC Blend oil, this means an urgent need to search for replacement shipments of light low-sulfur crude.
Russia: Fuel Market Gradually Exiting Acute Phase
The domestic oil product market in Russia is experiencing the most challenging summer in recent years. The deficit of gasoline and diesel fuel, which has been observed since late May, was caused by a combination of factors: unscheduled refinery shutdowns, seasonal peak demand during the vacation and harvesting period, as well as logistical constraints in the southern regions.
A complex of measures has been implemented, including:
- A complete export ban on gasoline, diesel fuel, marine fuel, jet fuel, and gasoil;
- A reduction in the mandatory exchange sale norm for gasoline from 15% to 10% for the period from July 1 to September 30;
- Cancellation of import duties and increase in imports of oil products from Belarus;
- Maximum loading of existing capacities, shortening the duration of ongoing repairs, and postponing planned ones;
- Inclusion of the potential of medium and small refineries.
On July 21, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak stated that the market has begun to stabilize, noting that in certain regions the situation is addressed "in a manual, pinpoint mode." Priority is given to supplying agricultural producers during the harvest campaign and northern imports. The FAS has initiated 15 cases against market participants, and on July 23, the Ministry of Energy instructed oil companies to consider the cancellation of regional limits on the sale of fuel volumes of less than 50 liters — a signal that authorities believe the peak of the crisis has been surpassed.
Russian Oil Exports: Volatility of Discounts
The dynamics of the Russian export grade Urals in 2026 are demonstrating an unusual amplitude. In April-May, at the peak of the Middle Eastern crisis, Urals in shipments to India and China traded at a premium to Brent, reflecting an acute scarcity of sulfurous grades. By June-July, prices returned to a discount in the range of $2-3 per barrel against a backdrop of decreased activity from Asian refiners and squeezed margins for independent Chinese refineries. The current rise in benchmark prices is again improving export revenues; however, the sanctions infrastructure — restrictions on freight, insurance, and payments — continues to keep the realizable prices below market indicators.
Coal Market: Comeback Amid LNG Shortage
Coal is reclaiming its place in the global energy agenda as a last resort fuel. Australian thermal coal Newcastle is trading at around $130 per ton. The loss of LNG supplies to Asia is creating additional demand: industry analysts estimate that additional coal consumption in the Asia-Pacific region in 2026 could reach around 70 million tons, and with the resumption of full-scale hostilities, up to 90 million tons.
Japan leads the increase in coal generation, where output at coal-fired power plants is growing at double-digit rates, while gas generation decreases. South Korea and Taiwan are also increasing the loading of coal capacities. In contrast, India is restraining imports due to rising domestic production and high inventory levels, while China remains relatively shielded due to its low share of gas in the energy balance. Notably, the largest mining companies are hesitant to sanction new projects, viewing the surge in demand as cyclical rather than structural.
Electricity and Renewables: A Record Year Amid Crisis
The paradox of 2026 is that the energy shock has not slowed but accelerated the energy transition. According to the latest update from the International Energy Agency, global electricity demand will increase by 3.6% in 2026 and by another 3.8% in 2027 — from 28,600 TWh in 2025 to 30,700 TWh by 2027. The drivers of this growth are industry, electric transport, air conditioning, and data centers.
Key highlights from the generation forecast include:
- Renewable generation will surpass coal for the first time in history on a global scale in 2026.
- Renewables output will increase by more than 8%, rising from 33% of global generation in 2025 to 37% by 2027.
- Solar generation will add around 600 TWh and surpass wind, becoming the second-largest source of renewables after hydropower.
- Electricity demand in India will increase by 7%; the country has surpassed the 100 GW mark for variable renewables for the first time.
The investment picture confirms this trend: total investments in global energy in 2026 are estimated at $3.4 trillion, of which about $2.2 trillion will be allocated to low-carbon technologies and grid infrastructure. Renewable energy accounts for about $665 billion, including $365 billion in solar energy — effectively $1 billion daily, $200 billion in wind energy, and $75 billion in hydropower. Investments in energy storage systems will exceed $100 billion for the first time, increasing by over 35% year-on-year. The logic of investors is straightforward: self-generation is a form of insurance against geopolitical shocks in hydrocarbon supply chains.
Implications for Energy Market Participants
The market has entered a phase where pricing is defined not by the balance of supply and demand, but by probabilistic assessments of military scenarios. Practical conclusions for investors, fuel, and oil companies include:
- Hedging has become essential. Volatility with movements of 5-7% per session makes unhedged positions in oil, gas, and oil products a source of unacceptable risk.
- Refining margins are under pressure from both sides. Rising raw material costs, combined with administrative or competitive restrictions on retail prices, compress refinery crack spreads.
- Logistics are more important than geology. Hormuz, Bab-el-Mandeb, and Novorossiysk have shown that the cost of a barrel today is determined by the passability of chokepoints rather than the volume of reserves in the ground.
- Coal and nuclear receive a premium for predictability. Assets with long contractual horizons and an internal resource base are being reassessed upwards.
- The winter risk in Europe is not alleviated. The lag in filling gas storage holds potential for another price spike on TTF in the fourth quarter.
Nearby market benchmarks include the dynamics of the diplomatic track around Iran, the resumption of KTK shipments, the pace of gas injection into European storage, and the next OPEC+ decision on quotas. Any of these events could shift prices by $5-10 per barrel within a single session. Investors and energy market participants should anticipate that heightened volatility in the oil, gas, and energy sectors will persist at least until the end of the third quarter of 2026.
