News in Oil, Gas and Energy on April 27, 2026: Crisis in the Persian Gulf, Rising Oil and Gas Prices, Impact on the Fuel and Energy Complex and the Global Energy Market
The global fuel and energy complex (FEC) has entered a phase of heightened uncertainty. The situation in the Persian Gulf, where shipping disruptions through the strategic Strait of Hormuz continue, is once again in the spotlight, resulting in a sharp rise in insurance premiums and prices for oil and gas. Against this backdrop, increased demand for electricity and disruptions in gas supply intensify competition for LNG supplies, while countries prepare for diesel and aviation fuel shortages. Global oil prices are once again hovering around $100 per barrel, while gas quotes have surged to record levels for the beginning of spring. In these conditions, energy-intensive industries are reassessing their strategies, and investors are monitoring the liquidity of gas storage and logistics of supplies. Meanwhile, the crisis is spurring investment in renewable energy (RES): companies and governments are ramping up projects in solar and wind energy, as well as the development of battery storage networks to enhance the reliability of energy systems.
Oil Market: Pricing and Demand Dynamics
Oil prices remain influenced by geopolitical risks. Brent is holding steady around $100/barrel, supported by insurance premiums amidst escalating conflict in the Middle East. Simultaneously, spot prices for raw materials for immediate delivery in Europe are rapidly rising—closely approaching $130–150. Analysts note that global oil reserves are still substantial (around 7–8 billion barrels outside of Russia), but more than half of them are out of reach for consuming countries. The potential for further price increases hinges on the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the response of OPEC+ producers.
- Drivers: Reduced supplies from the Persian Gulf and geopolitical tensions are pushing prices upward.
- Demand: In Asia, there has already been a significant drop in demand—many refineries have limited processing, and flights and ferries have suspended some routes.
- Forecasts: Goldman Sachs maintains an average Brent price forecast for 2026 at around $80–85, believing the situation may normalize in the summer; however, the actual price surge in the spot segment continues to pressure inflation.
Persian Gulf and Logistics: Alternative Routes
The blockade and fear of escalation surrounding Iran continue to threaten key oil and gas delivery routes. Approximately 20–30% of global energy shipping passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Currently, daily traffic of vessels has decreased by about four times compared to normal levels. Countries are rapidly diverting supplies through alternative routes: oil is partially redirected via Saudi Arabia’s west coast and UAE terminals, as well as through the Iraqi pipeline to Turkey. Nevertheless, all of this is accompanied by rising freight rates and insurance fees, with logistical constraints becoming a source of profit for select companies and a risk for most others.
Gas and LNG Market: Competition between Europe and Asia
The natural gas and LNG segment is experiencing an acute phase of competition. Reduced LNG supplies from the Gulf region following the closure of Hormuz have intensified the race for flexible shipments. Europe and Asia are now competing for each tanker lot: European buyers are eager to replenish storage ahead of winter, while Asian gas companies are actively seeking immediate supplies in the spot market.
- Stocks: The filling of underground gas storage in the EU by the end of March was significantly below the five-year average, at about 25%, which raises the risk of winter shortages.
- Prices: Prices at the European TTF hub and the Asian JKM have surged to multi-tier highs from 2022, almost +50–70% in a month.
- Imports: The U.S. has ramped up LNG exports to a historical maximum, but is currently unable to offset all losses. New volumes from Qatar, Australia, and Africa will only provide partial relief.
Oil Refining and Oil Products: Capacity Reductions
Oil refining in Asia is sharply declining. Refineries in China, South Korea, Japan, and Singapore have already cut throughput—overall processing volume in the region fell by 10–15% in April compared to February. For some plants, the closure of Chinese fuel exports has been implemented to maintain internal balance. As a result, diesel and aviation fuel production may decrease by 1–1.5 million barrels per day, exacerbating the fuel shortage issue. In Europe, the fuel situation appears more stable due to domestic production and reserves: the Dutch government has stated that with full utilization of reserves of gasoline, diesel, and kerosene, the EU can meet its needs for more than six months. Nevertheless, prices for oil products have already reached record levels: freight and diesel premiums have risen sharply. For oil refiners, this means additional currency revenues, but for aviators and road carriers, it means new financial burdens.
- Imports: The EU has increased imports of North Sea and American oil to compensate for the shortage of medium-sulfur grades.
- Reserves: European refineries are cutting fuel exports, focusing on the domestic market; strategic reserves were partially redirected for aviation consumption.
- Support Measures: Airlines and carriers are introducing fuel surcharges; governments are preparing subsidies and preferential loans for refinery modernization.
Coal and Electricity: Reliability Priority
Due to rising gas prices and threats to gas supply, some countries are being compelled to enhance coal generation to maintain energy balance. In the European Union and Asia, programs to switch energy blocks to coal “until the crisis ends” have already been announced in several regions. This has temporarily increased demand and prices for coking and energy coal—quotations for energy-focused grades rose by approximately 15–20% in March-April. However, analysts warn: the scale of this spike is smaller than in 2022, as coal capacities have decreased, and there are strict limitations on Asian contracts. Nevertheless, the heated price parity of gas and coal is forcing some consumers to switch to cheaper fuel. At the same time, countries with developed nuclear generation (France, China) are increasing its share, while owners of backup generating capacities (power stations) are gaining an additional margin for readiness to connect quickly.
Renewable Energy: Accelerating Transition
The energy crisis has strengthened the arguments in favor of "clean" energy. According to IEA estimates, by 2025, global installations of solar and wind capacities are expected to grow at record rates. China accounted for more than half of the new global additions: nearly 370 GW of solar and 117 GW of wind capacity. The European Union added about 85 GW of green generation (mostly solar)—10% more than the previous year. In India and developing regions, the growth is even more intense—countries in the Middle East and Africa have doubled the capacities installed.
- Impulse: The rise in oil, gas, and coal prices increases the attractiveness of RES for reducing dependence on imports. Households are installing solar panels, and industries are investing in wind projects.
- Investments: Global companies and funds are directing capital into the network of electrical storages and modernization of grids. In the U.S., laws limiting the construction of new projects have been suspended, which should accelerate the launch of wind and solar stations.
- International Initiatives: At the end of April, a conference on "Phasing Out Fossil Fuels" is taking place in Colombia, where world leaders are discussing accelerating the transition away from oil and gas.
Support Measures and Market Forecast
Responses to the energy shock are also coming from governments. In the EU, financial aid packages have been announced for households and businesses: tax holidays, preferential loans for energy efficiency, and subsidies for airlines and transport companies. Plans are being developed for utilizing strategic fuel reserves and expanding LNG imports. At the same time, oil companies are reassessing investment programs: given current prices, it is profitable to accelerate production, particularly in regions with underutilized capacities (USA, Brazil). However, investors are now focusing more on infrastructure and flexibility. It is crucial to monitor the filling of European gas storage, the Brent/WTI spread, and refinery margins for diesel and aviation kerosene. On a global scale, the transition from cheap oil to costly stability is completing the formation of a new energy landscape, where the price of any energy carrier is determined not only by demand but also by the ability to deliver this resource to the consumer.
On the threshold of Monday, April 27, the global energy sector is in a challenging position: the conflict in the Persian Gulf has led to the largest oil and gas disruptions in history, which will soon be reflected in the real economy and inflation. Demand for coal and electricity is rising in the short term, but the strategic trend is towards accelerated adoption of renewable sources and diversification of supplies. Investors and market participants must track not only the price dynamics of oil and gas but also logistics factors (tankers, pipelines), fuel stocks, and infrastructure readiness. In the coming weeks, key issues will include the development of the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia's export plans, the filling of gas storage facilities, and the costs of alternative energy resources. The ability of companies to manage these risks will determine their success in a period of high volatility in the fuel and energy markets.
