Headline of the Day: Anthropic Prepares for Historic Listing
The central event of the autumn season for the venture market is Anthropic's preparation for its initial public offering. The developer of the Claude model family, which confidentially filed an S-1 with the SEC on June 1, is reportedly holding meetings with institutional investors and could launch the offering in late September to early October. The book-building process is being led by Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley, with the target exchange being Nasdaq.
Following a Series H round, the company's private valuation reached approximately $965 billion, with annual recurring revenue estimated by analysts to be in the range of $47–80 billion — largely due to its dominance in the AI coding segment. For the venture industry, this offering will not just represent an exit: the multiple that the public market assigns to Anthropic will serve as a fundamental benchmark for valuing all private AI companies for years to come.
OpenAI Shifts Focus: The Lab Race Moves to 2027
The main competitor, OpenAI, submitted its own S-1 a week later but is leaning towards postponing its listing until 2027. The reasons for this decision include market volatility and the management's desire to go public at a valuation of no less than $1 trillion. Over the past year, Anthropic has surpassed its rival in both revenue and private valuation for the first time, while OpenAI has experienced a series of personnel changes in its top management. For investors, this means that the public "AI premium" will be calibrated based on Anthropic's debut, while OpenAI will enter the market with several quarters of audited financials.
Record Capital Concentration: Half-Year Figures
Statistics from 2026 are rewriting the entire history of the venture industry. Key metrics appear as follows:
- Global venture investments in the first quarter alone reached $300 billion — an absolute record, comparable to 70% of all investments for 2025;
- Investments in startups in the US and Canada for the first half of the year totalled $392 billion;
- Four of the five largest venture rounds in history closed in 2026: OpenAI ($122 billion), Anthropic ($30 billion), xAI ($20 billion), and Waymo ($16 billion);
- Capital is being allocated to an increasingly narrow circle of companies — growth is driven by enormous rounds rather than an increase in the number of deals.
The market has adopted a pronounced "barbell" structure: elite startups are attracting mega rounds, strong early teams are receiving funding quickly and at high valuations, while the mid-tier is experiencing a lack of investor attention.
IPO Window Open: Autumn Sprint After Labor Day
The primary market is experiencing its best period in several years: by the end of May, over $34 billion was raised through IPOs — 164% more than the previous year. Following the successful debut of SpaceX and a strong year in biotech, investors anticipate a busy autumn calendar. The defense segment is particularly striking: shares of AI drone manufacturer Swarmer soared over 500% on their first day of trading. For venture funds, the open exit window represents an opportunity to lock in profits and return capital to partners — a critically important factor after several years of accumulated "overhang" from mature portfolio companies.
Defense Technologies: From Niche Bet to Core Sector
The defense segment has firmly established itself as the second most significant area of the venture market after AI. Key developments from recent weeks include:
- Anduril Industries is negotiating a new round at a valuation of around $100 billion — more than three times last year's level; company revenues doubled to $2.2 billion in 2025.
- European leader Helsing raised $1.8 billion at an $18 billion valuation — investor demand significantly exceeded the available allocation.
- Global investments in defense and dual-use technologies are advancing ahead of schedule and may exceed $18 billion by the end of the year.
The priority for 2026 is not invention but scaling production: investors are increasingly financing manufacturing capabilities rather than solely software platforms.
Deals of the Week: From Generative 3D to Space Launches
The first days of September brought a series of illustrative rounds reflecting the industry diversification of capital:
- Tripo AI, a developer of generative AI 3D models from San Francisco, closed Series B and B+ rounds totaling around $446 million with a broad pool of Asian and American funds;
- Félix from Miami announced a Series C financing of $200 million with a significant debt component — a signal of the growing role of hybrid capital structures;
- German space startup HyImpulse raised over €50 million in a Series A extension with a backlog of orders exceeding €350 million;
- Spanish biotech iPremom secured €15 million in seed funding for its early diagnosis platform for pregnancy complications;
- Tokyo-based PeopleX closed Series A at ¥5.45 billion, developing a sovereign AI platform for HR processes.
Beyond AI: Capital Seeks the "Physical World"
A notable trend in recent months has been the shift of some venture capital into tangible assets: sports teams, iconic real estate, consumer goods manufacturing, and energy for data centers. Investors are diversifying their bets, not wanting to rely entirely on the dynamics of AI valuations. Sustained interest remains in climate technologies, longevity biotech, robotics, and fintech — segments where the next generation of unicorns with more predictable unit economics is forming.
Russia and CIS: Transformation Amid Global Boom
The Russian venture market is moving in opposition to global trends: the volume of deals has decreased by approximately 40%, large late-stage rounds have virtually disappeared, and seed investments have fallen threefold in volume and number of deals. Investors have firmly shifted from funding "promising ideas" to stringent requirements on revenue and clear financial models. Projects in the fields of AI, enterprise software, and fintech receive priority; however, experts warn of a "demographic gap" in startups that will manifest in 2027-2028 due to the depletion of companies ready for acquisition.
What This Means for Investors: Conclusions and Forecast
The venture market enters autumn 2026 with a record level of activity, but also record levels of risk concentration. Anthropic's debut will set a public benchmark for the entire AI economy: a successful offering could open the floodgates for dozens of listings in 2027, while a weak start might trigger a reevaluation of the entire private AI portfolio. For funds, key metrics remain discipline in valuations, diversification beyond the AI core, attention to defense and infrastructure assets, and readiness to take advantage of the open IPO window for exits. The market rewards not loud ideas but proven revenue, cost control, and clear positioning — and this logic will determine capital allocation in the final quarter of the year.
