Key Insights as of 29 July 2026: Figures Shaping the Agenda
Below are the key metrics around which the current market discussion revolves:
- $510 billion — global venture investments in the first half of 2026; Q1 accounted for $305 billion, and Q2 added another $205 billion across more than 5,000 companies.
- 43% — share of two companies, OpenAI and Anthropic, in the global venture funding for the half-year ($217 billion combined).
- Over 70% — share of AI startups in global venture investments in the second quarter, compared to about 50% a year earlier.
- $412.7 billion — venture investments in the U.S. for the half-year, with $355.9 billion (86%) going to AI companies.
- $251 billion — raised through 86 American IPOs since the beginning of the year, more than five times the total for 2025 ($47.4 billion).
- $113 billion — sum of acquisitions of startups for over $1 billion in the second quarter, a record in the history of observations.
- 5.09 billion RUB — volume of the Russian venture market for the half-year, down 40% year-on-year with a twofold reduction in the number of deals.
Record Half-Year: Why $510 Billion Does Not Mean "The Market Has Returned"
The record volume of venture funding was not driven by an expansion of the funnel but rather by a few gigantic rounds. The number of deals in the first half of the year hardly increased, and in Asian markets, the number of transactions has even dropped to a multi-year low despite record amounts. In other words, the average deal size has increased significantly while access to capital has narrowed.
Late-stage funding in the second quarter saw an approximate year-on-year increase of 141%. This marks a fundamental shift in the behavior of venture funds: capital is not going toward expanding the portfolio of new names but rather toward recapitalizing those leaders that have proven their viability. For managers, this means a more predictable, yet less asymmetric, return profile; for LPs, it highlights an increasing correlation between funds of different strategies.
Capital Concentration: The Main Risk on the Agenda
The situation in which two companies absorb 43% of global venture capital for the half-year has no historical parallels. Adding to this is a geographical imbalance: about 88% of all investments in AI startups go to companies based in the U.S. Meanwhile, the share of the U.S. in the total volume for the second quarter decreased from 83% to 66-67% — capital is both concentrating by sectors and internationalizing geographically.
For investment committees, this raises three practical questions:
- How diversified is the fund's portfolio if the bulk of industry returns is defined by a few private companies?
- How to value "second-tier" AI startups when valuation benchmarks are set by rounds of unprecedented scale?
- What will happen to the multiples of the entire sector if any of the leaders disappoint the public market?
End-of-July Deals: Where the Money Is Actually Going
The last decade of July provided a telling snapshot of venture funds' priorities. The most notable funding rounds include:
- Etched — $300 million, Series C, inference chips, led by Sequoia.
- CuspAI — $450 million, Series B, AI for developing new materials (Kleiner Perkins, NEA).
- Meshy — around $400 million, Series B, 3D content generation.
- Glow — $180 million, Series A, cybersecurity (Sequoia, Cyberstarts).
- Cathedral — $160 million, defense cyber-AI (Andreessen Horowitz, Sequoia).
- Humanoid — $152 million, Series A at a valuation of $1.35 billion; the first European "unicorn" in humanoid robotics.
- Neo — $100 million coming out of "stealth," application security in the era of AI agents.
Earlier in July, the market saw even larger transactions: $1.8 billion for defense firm Helsing, $1 billion for SambaNova Systems, $800 million for Together AI, $700 million for medtech platform Neko, and €411 million for the fusion project Proxima Fusion. The overall takeaway is that venture capital is financing not so much applications but the “operating system” of the new economy — computing, energy, security, and automated production systems.
Physical AI, Defense, and Deep Tech: The New Map of Priorities
Three themes are shaping the investment mode for the second half of 2026. The first is physical AI: models connected to hardware, from construction robots to industrial perception. The second is defense and sovereign technologies, where European startups are competing for the first time in a decade with American ones regarding the size of the checks. The third is energy for data centers: fusion, geothermal, and grid projects are being financed as an infrastructure class rather than a venture asset class.
It is also notable that cybersecurity has become a derivative of the proliferation of AI agents: investors are financing companies addressing issues created by generative models themselves. This is a stable "second-order" pattern, and it will remain a source of deals at least until the end of the year.
IPO Window 2026: Open but Not for All
The IPO market is experiencing its strongest resurgence since 2021. By the end of July, 86 IPOs took place in the U.S. with a total volume of $251 billion; global inflows for the half-year reached $178 billion (+205% year-on-year) across 524 deals. Technology listings averaged a 44.5% increase on the first day of trading, and the total valuation of companies in the IPO pipeline exceeded $2.1 trillion.
However, the structure of this record is as concentrated as the venture landscape. The SpaceX offering of $85.7 billion at a valuation of $1.75 trillion accounted for about one-third of all funds raised this year. Anthropic filed for an IPO on June 1 following a $65 billion round, while OpenAI filed confidentially on June 8 at a private valuation of $852 billion. Strava is preparing for an IPO at a valuation of around $2.2 billion. Simultaneously, Databricks publicly declined to list in 2026 in favor of 2027, discussing a private round at a valuation of $165-175 billion, compared to $134 billion six months earlier. Canva and Cohere are currently viewed by the market as candidates for 2027.
M&A and Exits: The Best Quarter in Five Years
For the first time since 2021, the dynamics of exits have caught up with the dynamics of funding. In the second quarter, 32 companies went public with valuations above $1 billion, and another 24 were acquired for prices starting at $1 billion, totaling $113 billion — a record in the history of observations. For venture funds, this signifies the unlocking of DPI: LP distributions have finally started to return to levels where a full cycle of re-subscription for new funds is possible.
Nonetheless, the quality of exits remains uneven. Large strategic acquisitions are concentrated in AI infrastructure, semiconductors, and biotech, while classic mid-sized SaaS continues to exit at a discount to the rounds of 2021.
Fundraising and Dry Powder: Capital is Available but Access is Limited
On a global scale, private markets hold around $3.9 trillion of unallocated capital, of which approximately $600 billion directly pertains to venture funds. However, the share of successfully closed funds has dropped to about 57%, down from 94% in 2020 — LPs have become notably more selective and prefer proven platforms over new managers.
The practical consequence for the market is that the gap between "top-quartile" and other funds continues to widen, and emerging managers increasingly pursue deals through syndicates, SPVs, and joint investments with larger platforms.
Russia and the CIS: A Market in Rigid Selection Mode
The Russian venture market is moving in opposition to the global trend. In the first half of 2026, venture investments amounted to 5.09 billion RUB — 40% lower than the previous year. A total of 50 deals were completed, half the figure for the first half of 2025, with an average check of 113.2 million RUB. The largest volume of investments was directed towards artificial intelligence and machine learning — the industry focus aligns with global trends, but the scale does not.
Industry analysts are comparing current metrics to levels from 2009-2011. The logic of funding has structurally changed: with high key interest rates, the deposit and debt market are competing with venture returns, prompting investors to demand verified revenue, positive unit economics, and a clear path to profitability from startups rather than just "promising ideas." The main sources of capital remain corporate venture, industry-specific funds, and club syndicates.
Conclusions for Venture Investors and Funds
The agenda as of July 29, 2026, can be summarized in four theses:
- Record ≠ Broad Market. Aggregated $510 billion masks the tightening of the funnel: capital is available to category leaders, not the average startup.
- Concentration is a Standalone Risk. Portfolios whose returns depend on several AI leaders require stress testing for the scenario of a disappointing debut from one of them.
- The Exit Window is Open, but Selectively. Companies with valuations of $2-5 billion, stable revenue, and proximity to profitability have a real chance to capitalize on the current IPO cycle.
- Infrastructure Bets Outperform Applied. Computing, energy, security, and physical AI offer a more secure position than applications built atop others’ models.
The market has entered a phase where an excess of capital coexists with limited access to it. For venture funds and institutional investors, this means a return to fundamental discipline: quality of selection, valuation discipline, and prudent liquidity planning — regardless of how impressive the headline figures of the half-year may appear.
