Top 7 Token Unlocks (December 15-21, 2025) and Their Impact on the Cryptocurrency Market

Analytical Overview of Major Token Unlocks for the Week of December 15-21, 2025: Impact on the Market, Risks for Investors, and Key Project Metrics.

In the upcoming week from December 15 to 21, 2025, several major projects are planning significant token unlocks, which may affect the dynamics of the entire cryptocurrency market. These include Aster, LayerZero, Arbitrum, Vana, Yooldo Games, STBL, and Merlin Chain. Below is an analysis for each case, detailing the timing of the unlock, the number of tokens entering circulation (in absolute terms and as a percentage of total supply), the current value of these tokens, and the potential impact of the token unlock on price and liquidity. Such cryptocurrency analytics helps assess risks and prospects—especially relevant for those considering long-term investments in cryptocurrency.

For clarity, let's compare the key metrics of all seven projects in the table below:

Aster (ASTER)

Aster is a decentralized derivatives exchange offering spot and perpetual trading of cryptocurrencies and stock contracts with leverage of up to 1001×. On Wednesday, December 17, 2025, Aster will unlock approximately 78.4 million ASTER (around 0.98% of the total token supply). At the current rate, this is equivalent to about $75 million—adding approximately 3% to the circulating supply of ASTER. Given the project's market capitalization (in the order of several billion dollars), this volume is relatively small. However, if a significant portion of the unlocked coins immediately enters the market, there may be some profit-taking from recipients, leading to reduced liquidity on trading platforms. Cryptocurrency investors should monitor the behavior of large holders: while the unlock volume is moderate, the Aster market is likely capable of absorbing it without prolonged price pressure.

LayerZero (ZRO)

LayerZero (ZRO) is an inter-network communication protocol that ensures secure data and value transfer between different blockchains. On Saturday, December 20, 2025, the project will carry out an unlock of approximately 24.68 million ZRO (around 2.47% of the total emission), with a cumulative value of ~ $37 million. This represents about 10% of the current market capitalization of ZRO, signifying a substantial increase in circulating volume. Such an influx of tokens in a mid-cap project can lead to noticeable volatility: short-term holders may sell new coins, putting pressure on the price. However, the schedule of such unlocks was known in advance, and the market has partially priced this information in. It is important to note that LayerZero tokens are distributed among investors and the team according to a schedule—if a significant portion of recipients continues to hold the coins or stakes them, the impact of the token unlock may be mitigated. Investors should closely monitor the movement of these tokens (for example, transfers to exchanges) in the days following December 20.

Arbitrum (ARB)

Arbitrum (ARB) is one of the leading Layer 2 solutions for Ethereum (based on optimistic rollup), allowing for lower fees and faster transactions on the network. On Tuesday, December 16, 2025, approximately 92.63 million ARB are expected to unlock—this is about 0.93% of the total volume of Arbitrum tokens, valued at approximately $19.8 million. This release corresponds to only ~2% of the market capitalization of ARB, which is relatively small. Since its launch in 2023, Arbitrum has already distributed a significant portion of its tokens through airdrops and gradual distributions to investors; the current phase is a planned unlock for early investors and the team. Given the small share of new coins, the cryptocurrency forecast for emissions at this level is moderate: the ARB market is likely to perceive this event calmly. High liquidity and widespread availability of ARB on exchanges suggest that the cryptocurrency market will readily absorb the additional supply. However, short-term speculative fluctuations are not excluded—like with any unlock, market participants should exercise caution around December 16 and monitor the behavior of large ARB holders.

Vana (VANA)

Vana (VANA) is a Layer 1 blockchain focused on maintaining user control over personal data and monetizing it (turning data into a tokenized asset). According to the plan, on Tuesday, December 16, 2025, the project will release VANA tokens into circulation with a total value of approximately $17.4 million—this amounts to about 6.12 million VANA, which is equivalent to ~5.1% of the total emission. The new coins will represent around 20% of the current market capitalization of VANA, meaning that the circulating volume will increase significantly. Such a sharp increase in supply may create substantial pressure on the price, especially if holders of unlocked tokens decide to realize them immediately. On the other hand, some of these tokens may be intended for ecosystem initiatives (for example, community rewards or incentives for users), reducing the risk of an immediate bulk sell-off on the market. Investors interested in cryptocurrency investments in the Vana project are advised to prepare for increased volatility: a short-term price drop is possible if demand from new buyers does not keep up with the supply increase. In such cases, it is important to assess the project's fundamental metrics—a sustained interest in Vana from users and partners may help the price recover after the initial supply shock.

Yooldo Games (ESPORTS)

Yooldo Games (ESPORTS) is a multi-chain Web3 gaming platform where users play games and earn tokens for their activities (play-to-earn), integrating mechanics from traditional and blockchain games. On Friday, December 19, 2025, Yooldo will unlock approximately 41.91 million ESPORTS tokens (around 4.7% of the total emission). Their cumulative value is estimated at around $17.2 million, representing about 26% of the current circulating supply—a considerable share. An increase of nearly a quarter in supply at once could significantly impact the market price: if new coins flood onto exchanges, a price drop may occur due to demand-supply imbalances. Investors holding ESPORTS have recently experienced heightened volatility—the Yooldo token has seen double-digit declines in recent days amid expectations for the unlock and the associated speculation. Future dynamics will depend on how actively the unlocked tokens are sold. If the project's team or long-term supporters decide to hold a substantial portion of the coins to support the ecosystem, the negative effects may be mitigated. However, cryptocurrency investors should be mindful of the risks: without a proportional influx of new players or investors into the Yooldo platform, such a large expansion in supply is likely to depress the token price in the short term.

STBL

STBL is a relatively new decentralized stablecoin protocol aimed at combining transparency, yield, and collateralization with real assets (“Stablecoin 2.0” concept). The project launched its governance token STBL in the fall of 2025, and now enters a period of active monthly unlocks. On Tuesday, December 16, 2025, the protocol will release approximately 288.39 million STBL tokens—equivalent to 2.88% of their total maximum quantity. At current prices, the unlock volume is estimated at around $16.1 million. It should be emphasized that this is an extremely large increase in supply: it is comparable to ~58% of the current market capitalization of STBL. In other words, if about 100 units of value are currently in circulation, another almost 58 will be added on top. Such a sharp expansion of circulation usually leads to strong downward pressure on the token's price, especially if the unlocked coins become immediately available for sale. However, the STBL team has previously informed the market about its unlock schedule and the intended use of new tokens. A significant portion of these coins may be intended not for immediate sale but for incentivizing liquidity and rewarding ecosystem participants (e.g., collateral providers). Nevertheless, STBL holders should be prepared for spikes in volatility: while the mechanism and cryptocurrency forecasts of this protocol are under market test, caution is warranted. Monitoring the activity of large addresses (in particular, tracking whether new tokens are sent to exchange accounts) will help timely assess sentiments and actions from major players.

Merlin Chain (MERL)

Merlin Chain (MERL) is a blockchain project developing a Bitcoin-native Layer 2: a secondary network built on top of the Bitcoin blockchain to enhance bandwidth and introduce smart contracts into the Bitcoin ecosystem. On Friday, December 19, 2025, Merlin Chain will unlock approximately 36.14 million MERL—about 1.72% of the total token supply, amounting to approximately $16.1 million. This volume of new coins constitutes about 4% of the current market capitalization of MERL—a relatively small level when considering this week's unlocks. For Merlin Chain, this is a planned quarterly token distribution to investors and advisors of the project, taking place against a backdrop of increased network activity (the project is gaining attention as a promising L2 platform for Bitcoin). Despite the moderate share, the sudden emergence of an additional 36 million coins may cause short-term price fluctuations. If some recipients decide to take profits, sales may occur in the days immediately following the unlock, potentially temporarily lowering the MERL price. On the other hand, due to the relatively small size of the unlock and positive expectations surrounding Merlin Chain, the market may be able to absorb these tokens without difficulty. For investors holding MERL, a rational strategy would be to monitor the order book status and market sentiment: maintaining high interest in the project (especially from institutional partners testing Bitcoin-L2 solutions) may minimize the impact of the unlock and keep it short-lived.

Summary and Recommendations for Investors

Over the week of December 15-21, hundreds of millions of tokens (over half a billion units in total) will be unlocked across seven different projects. Such events inevitably attract the attention of market participants, as they increase supply and may temporarily depress prices under otherwise equal conditions. The final effect depends on the proportion of new tokens relative to those already in circulation: large unlocks (like those of STBL or Yooldo) carry a greater risk of a one-time drop, whereas smaller proportions (like those of Arbitrum or Merlin Chain) are generally absorbed by the market more easily. Nevertheless, predictions regarding cryptocurrencies with scheduled unlocks should always consider holder behavior: if token recipients prefer to hold them or use them within the ecosystem (staking, liquidity, etc.), the negative price impact will be limited.

Cryptocurrency investors are advised to plan their strategy ahead of major unlocking dates. This means:

• Monitoring the token unlock calendar and assessing what portion of the total and circulating supply is entering the market.

• In cases of significant percentages (double digits or more)—considering hedging measures or partial profit-taking before the event to avoid being caught in a wave of potential sell-offs.

• Analyzing the fundamental metrics of the project: strong projects with active user communities and in-demand products often endure unlocks without long-term harm, while weaker projects may experience intensified downward trends due to an influx of supply.

• Monitoring on-chain data immediately following the unlock. If significant volumes of new tokens move to exchanges, this is a signal of possible selling pressure; conversely, if tokens remain in wallets or go to staking, the market will perceive this positively.

In conclusion, diversification and disciplined risk management remain the best protection for investors. Unlocks are known events, and the market often "prices in" their effects beforehand. However, the reaction is not always predictable: the impact of token unlocks may vary from neutral to sharply negative in the short term. Based on our analysis, investors should remain vigilant and use such events as opportunities to reassess their positions. Careful planning and timely cryptocurrency analytics will help meet this influx of new tokens well-prepared, maintaining a balance between risks and growth potential in a dynamic cryptocurrency market.