The weekly increase in fuel prices has nearly quintupled the growth rate of average inflation, which stood at 0.23% for the same period. Since the beginning of the year, petrol prices have risen by 5.6%, diesel by 4.8%, whereas average inflation has amounted to 3.53%.
The causes behind the accelerated price increases at filling stations appear to lie in a reduced supply of fuel due to unscheduled repairs at oil refining plants (ORPs). In an official statement issued by the Ministry of Energy on June 8, it was noted that recent air attacks from the adversary have led to temporary difficulties in fuel supplies in several southern regions.
Earlier, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak linked a slight decline in oil extraction in Russia to a number of ORPs being under "unscheduled repair." Meanwhile, crude oil exports from Russia are at a peak for the year. If oil extraction has decreased but exports have increased, it is logical to assume a reduction in domestic oil refining.
Official statistics on the production of petrol and diesel, as well as their reserves in Russia, have been closed since 2024. However, the Ministry of Energy has repeatedly emphasized that there are sufficient fuel reserves to meet domestic market needs, and the sector is poised to handle the seasonal increase in demand in a planned manner.
Almost all petrol produced in Russia is directed towards the domestic market, with exports banned since April this year. Overall, petrol production exceeds domestic demand by 10-15%, indicating a small buffer even amid decreasing production. Diesel exports are still permitted, and the output is nearly twice that of domestic consumption.
In the past two weeks, reports have emerged from some regions regarding disruptions in the supply of petrol to filling stations, and occasionally, the introduction of sales restrictions. The issues are being reported primarily in the southern regions of the European part of the country. By the second week of June, petrol and diesel prices on the St. Petersburg exchange had risen to their highest levels since the beginning of the year.
The production of petrol in Russia exceeds domestic demand by 10-15%Does this mean that there is not enough fuel being produced? Most likely not. As noted in a conversation with "RG" by Dmitry Gusev, Deputy Chair of the Supervisory Board of the "Reliable Partner" Association and member of the Expert Council for the "Russian Filling Stations" competition, fuel is available, but unfortunately, logistics are becoming more complicated and reshaped due to attacks on ORPs. Suppliers and transportation methods are changing, sometimes resulting in extended routes. This increases delivery times.
A similar viewpoint is shared by Sergey Frolov, Managing Partner of NEFT Research. He believes that there is currently no significant physical fuel deficit in the European part of Russia. In his opinion, the price dynamics at filling stations primarily reflect the difficulties faced by independent filling station networks, which are increasingly struggling to find freely available volumes at economically viable prices. Often, they are forced to purchase fuel at 1.5 times or more higher than the current wholesale market prices, predominantly from Belarusian petroleum products.
Frolov admits that the persistence and escalation of shortages this summer are plausible and will depend directly on the same factors: operations at ORPs, logistics availability, and demand levels. Any irregular market situation or reduction in supply available on the stock exchange and direct contracts will inevitably affect the cost of wholesale batches and, consequently, retail prices.
Additionally, it is worth noting that the Ministry of Energy has not made statements regarding fuel reserves without reason. They exist among oil companies and large traders, while major and medium filling station networks typically stockpile inventory. Mass attacks on our ORPs, which supply the domestic market, began in the latter half of May. According to Reuters, production was temporarily halted or reduced at seven facilities. This means that it has been less than a month since the first strikes, and it is highly likely that the domestic market has not yet fully felt the impact of reduced supply; the effects are anticipated to manifest only by the end of June. However, the "black deeds" of the information landscape have already taken their toll.
According to Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of Open Oil Market, the primary risks of shortage lie in the southern regions, where production and logistical factors converge. In other regions, there are currently no risks of physical fuel shortages, although overall sentiment is contributing to price increases. Gusev also stresses the role of negative expectations. "We tend to fear shortages. If, suddenly, local restrictions arise or something becomes scarce, panic sentiments immediately spread throughout the market," notes the expert.
Fuel reserves are held by oil companies, traders, and large and medium filling station networksTereshkin believes that in a sense, the terminology used by the Central Bank is applicable here, as it not only provides calculations on inflation but also monitors observed and expected inflation. The former relates to consumers' perception of actual price increases, while the latter pertains to their expectations regarding price trends in the near future. Currently, the observed and expected "fuel" inflation is at multi-year highs. This largely explains why Rosstat recorded such a significant price increase in its latest weekly report.
Energy expert Kirill Rodionov suggests that Rosstat and the Central Dispatch Unit of the Fuel and Energy Complex should return to publishing data on petrol and diesel production. This would help alleviate concerns among wholesale and retail consumers, regardless of the fact that actual fuel output in the market will nonetheless play a defining role.
Source: RG.RU
