IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol stated in an interview with Associated Press that Europe's jet fuel stockpiles are sufficient for about six weeks.
The energy crisis in Europe has been triggered by the conflict between the US and Iran that began on February 28, along with disruptions in oil supplies from the Gulf states. In March, Birol mentioned that the situation is comparable to the oil shocks of the 1970s and the gas crisis of 2022. "Not only oil and gas but also some critical arteries of the global economy—such as petrochemicals, fertilizers, sulfur, and helium—have experienced disrupted trade, which will have severe implications for the global economy," he asserted.
According to Birol, over 40 energy facilities have sustained significant damage since the onset of military actions.
Russian airlines have responded calmly to Birol's latest statement. For example, a spokesperson for S7 told RBC that the airline does not observe a fuel shortage in any of the foreign countries within its routing network. "There is also no [fuel shortage] in Russia," she added. A press service representative from charter airline Azur Air noted that they do not foresee risks to their summer flight program to Turkey due to fuel shortages.
RBC has sent inquiries to Aeroflot and Ural Airlines.
Friendly Avia Support's CEO Oleksandr Lanetsky informed RBC that jet fuel is currently available at European airports. He stated that a shortage might arise in the next two to three months, depending on the country. "If supplies do not resume, transportation could be significantly reduced. But for now, this is a theoretical question," he believes.
However, a source within one airline told RBC that fuel prices at foreign airports have increased by at least 30% from pre-war levels, with some price hikes reaching up to 50%. "Under current conditions, this will exert pressure on transportation profitability," he stated.
Lanetsky confirmed that jet fuel prices in Europe have been rising since the beginning of the armed conflict in the Middle East. "Jet fuel accounts for approximately 40–45% of the operational costs for European carriers," he noted. "Over the past two months, fuel prices have doubled on average. This is already impacting airfare prices." The expert added that he does not foresee an opportunity to replace traditional jet fuel with alternative fuels in the coming years.
According to Open Oil Market CEO Sergey Tereshkin, jet fuel prices are currently "notably higher than usual": data from the International Air Transport Association reported that for the week ending April 10, the average jet fuel price in Europe was $203.6 per barrel ($1607 per ton). "This is 4.7% higher than the previous month and 123.5% higher than the average in 2025," the expert notes.
Managing Partner of Kasatkin Consulting Dmitry Kasatkin stated that kerosene prices in Northwest Europe reached $1800 per ton last week, whereas before the conflict in the Middle East, it cost $750–830 per ton. "This is more than a doubling over six weeks. The previous record was set in the spring of 2022, and the market has already surpassed it," he added.
Tereshkin emphasizes that jet fuel is classified as a light oil product, produced using low-sulfur crude oil. "Such crude oil is primarily sourced from the Middle East. Therefore, the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz poses risks to the jet fuel market," the expert said.
Kasatkin mentions that jet fuel in Europe is predominantly produced by large refineries—Total, Shell, BP, Eni, and Neste. However, domestic production in Europe is insufficient: a significant portion of the fuel is imported as a finished product and raw material for its production. Key external suppliers include Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and India, the RBC source explains. "European refineries may increase jet fuel output, but only at the expense of reducing diesel or gasoline production, which are already in short supply," he noted.
Deputy Director of the Center for the Economics of the Fuel and Energy Sector Sergey Kolobanov evaluated the total jet fuel consumption in Europe for 2025 at 48 million tons, of which only 30 million tons are produced by EU refineries. The remainder is imported, with half of the imports coming from Middle Eastern countries.
Tereshkin believes it is premature to speak of a shortage. "There is a supply shock that overlays rising logistical costs. These factors will maintain prices at high levels but do not threaten airline operations," he is confident.
Conversely, Kasatkin believes that a shortage in Europe has already occurred: restrictions on refueling have been observed at four airports in Italy—the limit for individual aircraft is set at 2,000 liters, while a fully loaded narrow-body aircraft requires 20,000 liters.
"Airlines expect that jet fuel will remain in short supply until the end of the year and may be forced to optimize their flight schedules," Kasatkin says. "Some carriers did not hedge their fuel risks and remain fully exposed to price increases. Many have fuel stockpiles that will last only a few weeks: most carriers will not last longer than 30 days, and in several Eastern European countries, supplies are limited to just a week."
Kasatkin reminds that the last tanker with jet fuel from the Persian Gulf arrived last week. "If the Strait of Hormuz does not reopen, stocks could be halved by May," he believes. "This will lead to mass cancellations of flights, rising ticket prices, and a serious blow to the tourist season in economies in Southern Europe that depend on it."
According to the analyst, among the emergency measures being considered are centralized jet fuel procurement at the EU level, temporary suspension of carbon restrictions for aviation, and the lifting of certain taxes on air transport.
Source: RBC
