Oil Exports from Russia by Sea Reach Record Low since Early 2025
In light of adaptations to US sanctions against LUKOIL and Rosneft, maritime oil exports from Russia fell to 291,000 tonnes per day in mid-November, marking the lowest level since early 2025. Meanwhile, freight rates for transporting raw materials from Russia continue to rise, reaching annual peaks in some routes.
Maritime oil exports from Russia from November 10 to 16 decreased by 12.7% compared to the previous week, settling at 291,000 tonnes per day, according to the latest review by the Centre for Price Indices (CPI). This represents a minimal figure for the current year.
The most significant decline occurred at the Primorsk port, where loading fell by 73.2% over the week, down to 43,000 tonnes per day. A total of three Aframax tankers, each with a deadweight of 100,000 tonnes, were dispatched from Primorsk: one is heading to Turkey, another to Egypt, and the third is bound for an undisclosed destination. Furthermore, in the Novorossiysk port, there were no shipments of Russian oil recorded from November 14 to 17 due to an incident.
According to the CPI, the decrease in export volumes is attributed to a restructuring of trade processes among certain companies. Analysts have previously indicated that such necessity may arise as a result of US sanctions against LUKOIL and Rosneft. Data from S&P Global Commodities at Sea (CAS) shows that China and India, the two largest buyers of Russian oil, have increased imports of raw materials from the Middle East and the Atlantic basin in recent weeks due to the tightening sanctions against Russia.
An increase in risk premium and a global rise in demand for Suezmax tankers with a deadweight of 135,000 tonnes have raised the freight rates for transporting Russian oil from Novorossiysk to West India by 1.2% over the week, reaching $8.6 per barrel, as reported by the CPI. The cost of shipping oil from ports in the Azov-Black Sea basin to Turkey has risen by 2.8%, now at $5.1 per barrel, while the rate to West India has gone up by 3.2%, reaching $8.8 per barrel, according to the CPI. The global Suezmax index as of November 17 stood at $63,130 per day, which is 1.7 times higher than at the beginning of October, according to S&P Global.
Market participants note that there is a decrease in available free tonnage from Greek shipowners, as highlighted by the CPI. Greece has long been essentially the only jurisdiction within the EU to own vessels transporting Russian oil, according to Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of Open Oil Market. Malta is another exception, but the volumes shipped by Greek tankers have been significantly higher, he adds.
Parts of the US sanctions introduced at the end of October will come into effect on November 21, causing shipowners to continue increasing risk premiums when transporting Russian oil. The CPI explains that potential issues at unloading ports due to failure to meet delivery deadlines can lead to substantial financial losses. However, analysts note that the overall trend of rising freight rates will be driven by global increases in maritime logistics costs, prompted by seasonal demand.
Igor Yushkov, an expert from the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, believes that the costs of transporting Russian oil have peaked. Despite this, the CPI predicts that the record high freight rates for Suezmax vessels may be surpassed by the end of the year. The process of replacing that portion of oil covered by sanctions will create additional demand for tankers, as quoted by CAS's Giovanni Gavarone from Maersk Tankers.
By the end of 2025, the volumes of maritime oil supplies from Russia will also depend on the perception of risks related to sanctions by importing countries, according to Sergey Tereshkin. He notes that the recent decision by the US Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control to extend LUKOIL's timeline for winding down operations abroad is a positive sign that buyers may interpret as a sign of alleviated risks. The CPI believes that the rising freight rates for Russian oil will attract global carriers, including Greek, Chinese, and UAE shipowners.
On November 19, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak stated that US sanctions against Rosneft and LUKOIL have not affected oil production in Russia. Oil production in the country is growing slightly faster than in October, with the annual production forecast remaining at 510 million tonnes. The discount on Russian crude will gradually decrease as the market adapts, said Alexander Novak.
Source: Kommersant
