In March, Russia increased its diesel fuel exports from Baltic ports by 22% compared to February and by 34% compared to March 2025, reaching 1.78 million tons, according to a review by the Centre for Price Indexes (CPI), which RBC has reviewed. The majority, approximately 1.16 million tons, was shipped from the less accident-affected port of Primorsk. The port of Ust-Luga saw 400 thousand tons exported, marking an 80% increase from the previous month and a 100% increase year-on-year.
However, a series of incidents at the ports of Primorsk and Ust-Luga complicated fuel product exports beginning March 25. The situation adds to the existing ban on gasoline exports and may lead to a reduction in external oil product supplies, including diesel, according to CPI.
At the end of March and beginning of April, drones attacked the Ust-Luga port multiple times. One of the attacks occurred on the night of March 31. According to the governor of the Leningrad region, Alexander Drozdenko, as a result of the attack, three people were injured, and homes and facilities in the settlement of Molodtsovo were damaged.
Earlier, on the night of March 23, the Primorsk port was subjected to a drone strike – during the attack, storage tanks with oil products caught fire. The resulting fire was localized two days later, on March 25. At that time, the regional administration reported that specialists found no exceedances of allowable concentrations of hazardous substances.
The press secretary of the President of Russia, Dmitry Peskov, noted that necessary measures are being taken to protect critical infrastructure, including the Ust-Luga port in the Leningrad region. At the same time, he emphasized that protection efforts cannot completely eliminate the risk of attacks on these facilities.
In addition, a dual situation has emerged in the oil transport market. On one hand, global freight rates have been rising rapidly, and incidents at Baltic ports have increased risks for carriers, which should have led to a significant rise in freight costs, as noted in the CPI review. However, from March 23 to March 29, rates practically stagnated (fluctuating from -$1 to +$3 per ton) due to an oversupply of tonnage. In mid-March, a significant amount of free volumes of light oil products arrived in the Baltic, while incidents created a cargo base shortage resulting from the partial suspension of terminal operations. As a result, carriers were forced to lower rates to secure additional loads in the region.
Reasons for the Increase in Exports in March
Experts interviewed by RBC attributed the increase in diesel fuel supplies from Russia in March primarily to the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, which removed a significant portion of Middle Eastern oil products from the market. Due to fears of fuel shortages, consumers began to purchase stockpiles aggressively, noted Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of the oil products marketplace Open Oil Market. For instance, commercial stocks at the Port of Fujairah in the UAE (the main logistics hub for the entire Middle East) decreased by 36% from March 2 to March 30, amounting to 13.3 million barrels of oil products.
Up until 2022, Russia was one of the largest suppliers of diesel fuel to the European market, and subsequently, Russian diesel began to be re-exported to the EU via Turkey. It is likely that transit supplies intensified amid the current crisis and the risk of diesel shortages in several European countries, Tereshkin believes.
According to independent energy expert Kirill Rodionov, Egypt has also engaged in re-exporting Russian oil products to the European market since 2025. However, following the onset of the conflict in the Middle East, direct fuel exports from Russia have been increasing. Importers, faced with the risk of shortages and disruptions in supplies from Gulf countries, have stopped fearing secondary sanctions from the United States. "They understand that the primary task of President Donald Trump's administration is to mitigate price risks amid transit problems in the Middle East, therefore Washington has relaxed its scrutiny of sanctions compliance against Russia," the expert stated.
As noted by managing partner Dmitry Kasatkin from Kasatkin Consulting, the demand for oil products is currently at its highest since 2022. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has created a diesel supply shortfall in Europe and South Asia, with wholesale prices in Frankfurt approaching record levels last seen in May 2022. "The temporary easing of sanctions has additionally expanded the buyer base, with the discount on Russian diesel against European benchmarks shrinking to a minimum. However, the capacity to capitalize on this demand is limited: incidents at Baltic terminals are reducing export opportunities at the most inconvenient time for the global market," the expert explained.
The United States has temporarily lifted sanctions on the sale of Russian oil and oil products loaded onto ships by March 12. The license is valid until April 11 and does not apply to transactions related to Iran.
Potential Redirection of Volumes
The volumes of diesel fuel that are lost due to incidents at the Baltic ports, as noted by CPI, could be compensated through supplies via the Big Port of St. Petersburg and the port of Vysotsk, which have a combined capacity of over 400,000 tons. However, considering the accident at the Kirishi refinery, there is no immediate need for operational replacement of export capacities in Primorsk.
If the infrastructure in Primorsk and Ust-Luga is not quickly restored to sufficient capacity, diesel fuel exports through the Baltic ports in April could decrease by 30-50% compared to March, according to Kasatkin. Oil products are supplied to these ports via pipelines, and it is physically impossible to quickly redirect volumes to other routes, he explained.
Redirecting to Novorossiysk or Taman would require railway transport (the distance exceeds 2,000 km). This significantly increases costs and is limited by the capacity of Russian Railways. According to the expert's estimates, it is realistic to redistribute no more than 15-20% of the lost volumes. Some oil products will go to the domestic market, which could place upward pressure on wholesale diesel prices within the country.
Source: RBC
