Russian refineries are gradually returning to fuel sales on the St. Petersburg exchange following scheduled and emergency repairs. Wholesale trading volumes have started to increase, unsatisfied demand is decreasing, and the situation at a number of gas stations is stabilizing. However, analysts warn that the market recovery will not be swift.
Refineries with a cumulative processing capacity of around 40 million tons of oil per year have resumed fuel sales at the St. Petersburg exchange, according to a review by the analytical agency Platts, which is part of S&P Global. Some of the largest enterprises, responsible for more than 45 million tons of annual processing, have yet to return to trading.
Since July 20, the St. Petersburg exchange has also relaxed the permitted price fluctuation limits for certain types of fuel. For AI-92 and AI-95 gasoline, as well as diesel fuel delivered under the "franco-tank" and "franco-destination" terms, the price increase corridor has been expanded from 0.01% to 5%, while a decrease of up to 10% is allowed. For deliveries under "franco-car from the shipping station," the maximum allowed increase remains at 0.01%, while a decrease of 5% is permitted. For aviation kerosene, the increase is capped at 0.01%, with a potential decrease of up to 20%.
Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of Open Oil Market, indicates that the expansion of the price increase range is intended to invigorate exchange trading, which is becoming an increasingly irrelevant price indicator.
According to him, the majority of fuel is sold through over-the-counter channels, and this trend has intensified in recent weeks. The government previously reduced the sales quota for gasoline at the St. Petersburg exchange from 15% to 10% of production levels, and a corresponding adjustment is planned for diesel fuel.
On July 20, the price of AI-92 gasoline on the St. Petersburg exchange, based on the index for the European part of Russia, rose by 0.7% to 72,290 rubles per ton. AI-95 saw a decrease of 2.3% to 74,610 rubles per ton, while diesel fuel prices fell by 0.38% to 74,420 rubles per ton. The price decreases may indicate an increase in supply.
This notion is further supported by the growth in wholesale sales volumes. According to the National Exchange Price Agency, on July 17, the figure rose by 4.6% compared to the previous day to 13,740 tons. Although 81.9% of all gasoline purchase requests remained unmet, the volume of unsatisfied paying demand decreased across all grades of gasoline, as noted in the review. The most challenging situation is observed in the AI-98 / AI-100 segment, where 92.9% of demand remains unsatisfied.
According to exchange data, from July 1 to 17, gasoline sales decreased by 47.8% year-on-year to 277,300 tons. Since the beginning of 2026, 4.74 million tons of gasoline have been sold at the exchanges, a reduction of 16.7% compared to the previous year. Additional market support comes from fuel product supplies from Belarus, which from July 1 to 17 amounted to 98,760 tons, exceeding the June total by 8.7%.
According to an industry source, the situation at Russian gas stations has begun to improve: queues have shortened, and many operators have returned to selling fuel without restrictions.
Independent networks continue to receive gasoline from Belarusian refineries and possibly from vertically integrated oil companies, according to the insider. "The peak of the deficit has likely already passed," states the source. However, they caution about a potential decrease in gasoline reserves below 1.5 million tons. Based on data from the Ministry of Energy cited by Russian President Vladimir Putin in late June, gasoline reserves have decreased year-on-year by 4% to 1.7 million tons. Another industry source stated that more capacities are currently being brought online than are being phased out.
Managing partner at NEFT Research, Sergey Frolov, does not anticipate a quick recovery for the market. He indicates that in the upcoming two months, high seasonal demand will remain, making significant improvements unlikely. The balance of supply and demand cannot be restored overnight, and a noticeable increase in production will only be feasible closer to the end of the year as the affected refineries come back online. Senior analyst at investment company "Rikom-Trast," Valeria Popova, notes that for stabilization, it is necessary to replenish reserves, reduce exchange price volatility, and ease temporary restrictions.
Source:
Kommersant
