Our retail market has yet to react to the massive UAV attacks on Russian oil refineries (refineries) that occurred in May of this year. Oil companies and large traders maintain fuel reserves in storage facilities, and large and medium-sized petrol station chains typically engage in bulk purchasing strategies. Moreover, everyone remembers the spring of the year before last, when the first attacks on Russian refineries began. At that time, the element of surprise was significant, and the risk of petrol shortages was real; however, potential supply interruptions from any source are now taken into account, with companies exercising caution.
The Ministry of Energy emphasizes that the domestic market is sufficiently stocked with petrol, diesel, and jet fuel, and the logistics infrastructure is functioning robustly, with no interruptions noted in regional supply.
However, the impact of attacks on refineries may have a delayed effect, depending on the duration and extent of production reductions due to unscheduled repairs. Since the start of the year, UAVs have targeted nearly all major refineries in the European part of Russia. Notably, since early May, the plants under attack primarily supplied the domestic market (Moscow and surrounding areas, Central Russia, the Northwest and South, the Volga region, the Ural region, and Western Siberia). According to Reuters, production has been halted or reduced at three of the largest refineries in Russia.
Data on fuel output is unavailable, as it is classified, and there is no operational statistics. However, energy expert Kirill Rodionov reported to "RG" data from "OMT-Consult" for the first quarter of 2026, before the massive onslaught on our refineries. According to this data, production of petrol in January-March this year decreased by 4.8% compared to the same period in 2025. Primary oil refining at refineries fell by 1.6% year-on-year to 64.1 million tons compared to 65.2 million tons in the first quarter of 2025 and 66.4 million tons in January-March 2024.
We are currently discussing only petrol since its production is only 10-15% higher than the domestic market demand. In 2024, Russia produced 41.1 million tons of petrol, with 37 million tons used domestically. Currently, the export of petrol from Russia is banned for everyone. Supplies are only flowing based on intergovernmental agreements with EAEU countries. A production decrease of less than 5% should not be critical. However, in late April, Bloomberg reported, citing OilX data, that refining volumes in Russia had fallen by 10-12%. This is without accounting for the damage to refineries in May. Therefore, the calm and stability in the domestic fuel market will entirely depend on the speed of refinery repairs and the adequacy of fuel reserves in storage.
According to Sergey Frolov, managing partner of NEFT Research, the threat of fuel shortages is real and significant. The seriousness of the crisis will depend on the swiftness and comprehensiveness of measures taken by regulators and oil companies. However, the unpredictability factor is very high—attempts to attack refineries and oil depots occur daily. Fuel reserves exist, but their purpose is to address tactical shortages. Without significant measures, the reserves will not last long, according to the expert.
Open Oil Market CEO Sergey Tereshkin is more optimistic. He believes it is premature to say that the increased risks to the fuel infrastructure in Central Russia will lead to a physical fuel shortage. However, it is highly likely that there will be a reduction in petrol supplies to the exchange. This also includes the risks of "non-fulfillment" of contracts previously signed on the exchange.
The situation is further exacerbated by the fact that Russian refineries utilize foreign equipment, mainly European, which is currently inaccessible to us, at least for direct purchases. If damage occurred due to the attacks, the repair time will depend more on the logistics of component supplies than on the extent of the work required.
A new refinery cannot be constructed in a month, so in a critical situation, petrol imports may be necessary, but the choice of suppliers is limited. As Tereshkin points out, supplies solely from Belarus will not be sufficient since the petrol production volume in the republic (approximately 3 million tons per year) is less than 10% of the domestic demand in Russia. Ensuring imports would be easier if the project for the construction of a fourth large refinery in Kazakhstan were realized (in addition to the existing three). However, the project is still only at the discussion stage.
There is also China, but the logistics of such supplies are criticized for both cost and speed of delivery. It is no coincidence that Frolov emphasizes that imports alone will not suffice; a comprehensive approach is necessary.
Tereshkin believes that the heightened risks of shortages will contribute to price increases for petrol outpacing inflation. Currently, petrol prices are already rising faster than inflation, at 4% compared to 3.15%. Moreover, the peak of the high demand season is still ahead, expected in July and August.
The situation with diesel is more favorable. In Russia, nearly double the amount produced is needed for internal consumption. Although experts do not rule out the possibility of local supply disruptions due to the uneven distribution of refineries across Russia and transport limitations amid emergency plant shutdowns.
In terms of fuel market development strategy, Dmitry Gusev, Deputy Chair of the Supervisory Board of the Reliable Partner Association and a member of the Expert Council of the "Filling Stations of Russia" competition, expressed his opinion to "RG". He emphasizes that 90-95% of passenger vehicles in Russia are petrol-powered. This currently poses risks to our national security since we are critically dependent on this single category of goods, which we may begin to run short of. Economic incentives to build new refineries have not yet been established, so the only way forward, according to the expert, is to reduce dependence on petrol. Alternatives could include diesel, liquefied hydrocarbon gases (LPG), and electric vehicles. This could be achieved through simple incentive measures—such as abolishing fees and taxes for vehicles with non-petrol engines and administrative decisions favoring the production of new cars in Russia not equipped with petrol engines.
Source: RG.RU
