The government's first-ever ban on the export of aviation kerosene will shield the market from unplanned fuel price spikes. The embargo will remain in effect until the end of November. The cabinet noted that the objective of this decision is to ensure a stable situation on the domestic market. Experts believe this will yield an additional approximately 2 million tonnes of fuel but will not lead to lower airfare prices. At the same time, the measure is expected to cool wholesale prices on the exchange, allowing airlines to purchase fuel without the risk of a sharp seasonal hike, thereby preventing tickets from rising at an accelerated pace.
Temporary Ban on Aviation Kerosene Exports
The government has introduced its first temporary ban on the export of aviation kerosene, which will be in effect until 30 November 2026. The purpose of this decision is to ensure a stable situation on the domestic fuel market, the cabinet's press service reported.
"The government continues its work to maintain reliable and uninterrupted fuel supply to the domestic market. A new decree has introduced a temporary ban on the export of jet fuel from Russia, including fuel acquired through exchange trading. The restriction will be in effect until 30 November 2026 inclusive," the statement said.
The cabinet noted that exceptions will be made for batches of aviation kerosene placed under customs procedures before the decree came into force, supplies under intergovernmental agreements, and fuel in technological tanks used by aircraft in transit.
Currently, Russia also has a ban on petrol exports for all market participants until 31 July 2026. Until the same date, restrictions on the export of diesel fuel, marine fuel, and other types of gas oils remain in place for non-producers.
There is no official data on the volume of aviation kerosene production and consumption in the Russian Federation. Izvestia has sent a request to the Ministry of Energy. According to data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the volume of the Russian aviation kerosene market in 2024 amounted to 10.01 million tonnes per year, with production at 11.6 million tonnes. The surplus fuel was exported abroad.
According to the Head of the Ministry of Transport, Andrei Nikitin, there is currently no shortage of aviation kerosene in Russia.
— At the moment, there is no shortage whatsoever. In any case, in any situation, we proceed from the interests of our airlines, — he stated.
According to Tamara Safonova, General Director of the Independent Analytical Agency for the Oil and Gas Sector, the traditional consumers of Russian-produced aviation kerosene are Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, and Armenia.
— Export supplies outside the EAEU are gradually narrowing against the backdrop of growing domestic demand. For instance, in April 2026, no aviation kerosene shipments were made by sea, — she noted.
Earlier, media reports indicated that Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak had instructed the further development of several issues to stabilise the domestic fuel market. These included holding consultations with Belarus to increase petrol supplies to Russia and discussing the possibility of increasing import damping payments, including for Belarusian fuel, with a corresponding amendment to the Tax Code of the Russian Federation retroactively from 1 June 2026.
However, an industry source for Izvestia could not confirm this information. According to him, Minsk is already supplying fuel to the Russian market, which it produces from Russian oil.
— Moreover, Russia pays damping fees to Belarusian producers, — the source noted.
Another industry source for Izvestia believes that if the discussion concerns increasing damping payments, the Ministry of Finance is unlikely to agree to this.
— Last month, 207 billion rubles were paid out under the fuel damping mechanism, compared to the 15 billion rubles oil companies paid in March, — he noted.
According to the National Exchange Price Agency, 17.34 thousand tonnes of petrol from Belarusian refineries were sold on the St. Petersburg International Mercantile Exchange in Russia between 1 and 22 May. This is 58 times more than in the same period in 2025.
Two Belarusian refineries — Mozyr and Novopolotsk — produce 3–3.5 million tonnes of petrol per year, while domestic consumption amounts to up to 1.2 million tonnes per year.
According to Ekaterina Kosareva, Managing Partner of VMT Consult, Russia produces over 40 million tonnes per year, with consumption at approximately 38–39 million tonnes per year.
Why the Cabinet Imposed a Ban on Aviation Kerosene Exports
Last week, as Izvestia reported citing industry sources, the government was discussing introducing a ban on both diesel and aviation fuel exports. According to the editorial board's sources, this issue was raised during a meeting with Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak.
Against the backdrop of the escalating Middle East conflict, demand and competition for Russian energy resources have sharply increased, experts noted. They described such a measure as banning fuel exports as very relevant given the overall situation in the global oil market, as blocking the Strait of Hormuz and rising oil prices make the petroleum products market extremely attractive and profitable, creating a temptation for Russian oil companies to increase their fuel supplies to external markets.
— To prevent this temptation from being realised, the government is imposing an embargo, or at least considering such a possibility, — noted Valery Andrianov, Associate Professor at the Financial University under the Government.
At the same time, experts tended to believe that if an export ban were introduced, it would be specifically on aviation kerosene, as diesel fuel production in Russia is more surplus.
According to Ekaterina Kosareva, Managing Partner of VMT Consult, Russia produces approximately 80 million tonnes of diesel per year and consumes only half of that volume. Regarding aviation kerosene, production is around 11–12 million tonnes, with consumption of about 10 million tonnes.
— Thus, the market will receive approximately 2 million tonnes of additional aviation fuel volumes, — emphasised Ekaterina Kosareva.
According to data from open sources, 2 million tonnes of aviation kerosene is a volume sufficient for 18–26 thousand full refuelling operations of long-haul aircraft or 66–133 thousand refuelling operations of narrow-body (medium-haul) passenger aircraft. Daily, civil aviation in Russia performs between 2.1 and 2.3 thousand flights, meaning this volume would be enough for approximately two to three months of flights for the entire country.
According to Oleg Panteleev, Executive Director of the industry agency AviaPort, considering 2 million tonnes as the volume that cannot be exported due to the imposed ban does not automatically mean an increase in its domestic consumption.
— According to statements from the Ministry of Transport and industry representatives, no fuel shortage is expected; however, there are also no grounds to forecast a significant increase in the volume of domestic transportation by year-end. Consequently, there are no prerequisites to believe that significantly more fuel will be needed, — he noted.
Nevertheless, the presence of reserves is a factor of strategic stability and is necessary, the expert believes. It also remains unclear whether the expert estimate of 2 million tonnes takes into account circumstances where fuel supplies to the external market may continue under intergovernmental agreements.
Dmitry Gusev, Deputy Chairman of the Supervisory Board of the Association "Reliable Partner", believes that systematic work is needed, including considering damping mechanisms for airlines.
— Firstly, reserves should be created, and secondly, price risks should be hedged to eliminate questions about a potential kerosene shortage during certain periods. In this context, closing aviation fuel exports is a preventive measure aimed at saturating the domestic market, — the expert noted.
However, he believes that overall, greater independence is expected from economic entities — they must understand that to increase aviation fuel consumption, timely purchases and risk hedging are necessary, without shifting these tasks onto the Ministry of Energy and the government.
According to Valery Andrianov, in recent years, Russia has seen a surplus of aviation kerosene, meaning production (about 11.6 million tonnes per year) exceeded domestic consumption (approximately 8.5–9 million tonnes).
— At the same time, consumption is characterised by high unevenness — it increases in June-August, during the summer holiday period. Accordingly, 2–2.5 million tonnes per year were exported. The main supply destinations were Central Asian countries — Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan — as well as Turkey, Middle Eastern and Asian countries, — the analyst noted.
Izvestia has sent inquiries to all major Russian oil companies and airlines.
What Impact the Cabinet's Decision Will Have on the Market
According to the St. Petersburg International Mercantile Exchange, the price of aviation fuel in over-the-counter trading has risen by 7.14% since the beginning of May — from 78,991 rubles per tonne on 1 May to 84,634 rubles on 31 May. However, as of 25 May, one tonne of aviation kerosene cost 96,776 rubles.
According to Sergey Tereshkin, General Director of Open Oil Market, the excise tax on aviation kerosene has remained unchanged for almost 10 years: a rate of 2,800 rubles per tonne has been in effect since 2017. For comparison, the excise tax on Class 5 petrol increased from 10,130 rubles per tonne in 2017 to 17,959 rubles per tonne in 2026, and the excise tax on diesel fuel increased from 6,800 rubles to 12,738 rubles, respectively.
— The existence of a fixed excise tax should have a stabilising effect on the cost of aviation kerosene. However, in practice, exchange prices over the past two months have risen from 80 thousand to almost 100 thousand rubles per tonne. The export ban may slow down the price increase, but prices are unlikely to return to previous levels anytime soon, — the expert emphasised.
According to Valery Andrianov, the export ban will insure against the risks of an aviation kerosene shortage in the country. Refraining from exports will allow reserves to be created for the peak of summer navigation, the Izvestia source believes.
An industry source told the editorial board that currently, the share of fuel in the price of an air ticket is not a fixed value, "it fluctuates significantly depending on the price of kerosene."
According to him, it constitutes "approximately 25–30% of the ticket price, but can be lower when prices fall and higher when prices rise sharply."
-— As for ticket prices, the embargo on aviation kerosene exports will not lead to their reduction. After all, their price is driven by other factors: the rising cost of aircraft maintenance and repairs under sanctions, a shortage of spare parts, and general inflation. But at the same time, the embargo will allow avoiding a sharp price increase that could have occurred in the event of an acute kerosene shortage on the domestic market, — said Valery Andrianov.
In his opinion, the export ban will most likely cool wholesale prices on the St. Petersburg Exchange, and airlines will be able to purchase fuel without the risk of a sharp seasonal price jump. This means tickets will not become more expensive at an accelerated pace. At the same time, domestic consumption will not increase in physical volumes, but the market will be guaranteed insurance against shortages.
Source: Izvestia
